Acockolypse Now
08-18-2008, 02:25 PM
Well, the season is almost upon us, and as a Thursday night game with a national audience approaches us I thought I'd offer up my top 5 questions for 2008. I feel that the answers to these questions will, in large part, determine whether we can improve on last years disappointing finish.
1. Will our QBs struggle or shine?
Contrary to popular belief, this Spurrier coached team doesn't need a heisman-trophy candidate at QB to win. Our QB needs to play within themselves, get the ball to the playmakers and, most importantly, make smart decisions. Beecher seems to have all the physical tools, and is capable of making the throws this offense needs. However, we've never seen him with the pressure of being the starting QB on him, with bullets flying in the SEC for real. The SEC is many things, but kind to a first year starting QB is not one of them. Smelley seemed to have the inside track on the starting job, but a hurt shoulder and consistently bad practice showings have moved him down the depth chart.
If all the recruiting hype is to be believed, Garcia should be our starting QB right now, but if you go back to my point about making smart decisions, you'll understand why he is not. At this point, it's an exercise in futility to count on him being the leader of this team, especially this year. He's simply too far behind in practice reps and experience to step in right away, even if all the off-field issues have been resolved. Garcia may well leave this campus with a multitude of passing records, but I don't think we can count on him racking up any yards this year.
So that puts in a frustrating position. Much like Lou Holtz, Spurrier enters his fourth year without a developed QB. I'm sure that like most of us Spurrier was hoping Garcia would be that player, but it just hasn't happened yet. If Beecher can come out, mature early and master Spurrier's system, this could be a very exciting year. If he can't, we'll see if Smelley has anything left in his tank or whether Garcia can somehow catch lightning in a bottle.
2. Can our Defense shake the injury bug?
On paper this is the deepest and most talented defense we've ever had at USC. Looking at the DL alone one is struck by the quality and depth. Lurking just underneath the surface of that however, is the reality that late 2007 could happen all over again.
Three of the defenses main weapons, Pepper, Hall, and Brinkley, have been battling long-standing injuries. Can Pepper and Hall's knees stand up to another long SEC season? If they can, and if they can regain their previous playing levels, our D-Line will be something to behold, with fresh bodies controlling the line late in games. If they can't our advantage at the line becomes diminished, and opposing OLs could push us around late in games just like last year.
Even more worrisome is Brinkley's nagging injuries. Not only is Jasper the most talented defensive player on the team, he's also the heart and soul and field general that the team sorely needs. Even at half strength his presence on the field against Georgia last year was notable. With Brinkley at full speed our defense becomes instantly better.
Another troubling side-effect of losing Brinkely to injury is the lack of mentoring that younger players like Sapp and Paulk could get from playing alongside him this year, making next year's loss of him less worrisome.
If those three players remain healthy, and we can stay relatively healthy in the secondary, we'll almost certainly be better on Defense than last year. That alone could translate into two or three more wins.
3. Will we develop a consistent OL rotation?
Other than QB development, the lack of OL consistency and development ranks as Spurrier's biggest disappointment in my book. Out of a late start, his staff signed no OL the first year, and we've been paying for it for the last two years. This year marks the year that the highly-touted second-year OL class comes of age. Instead of searching for lineups as the season progresses as we have in the past, we should have a fairly solid starting lineup from game one this year. Whether this unit will develop into a cohesive team, or whether someone will approach the steady play of White at center remains to be seen.
The talent and size do appear to be in place for the OL to have a break-out year, but I'm waiting to be convinced that the line will display the technique and aggressiveness that this unit has lacked in the past. Last year's game against Vandy was a case in point. The undersized and less talented D Line of Vandy manhandled our OL and spent all day in the backfield. Our linemen repeatedly failed to call out blitzes and identify schemes, giving Vandy's D a free hand in shutting down our attack. Hopefully we'll never see a display like that again.
I'm hoping that the addition of King to the line will inject the mean-streak this unit needs. He's rumored to play with an aggressive attitude, and if others can follow his lead and take their assignments personally, then the QB play won't matter quite as much. The running game will open up and make the passing game easier to implement. If not, all the improvements to the Defense won't matter, they'll be too tired to stop anyone.
4. Will we finally see a SOS offense?
After four years, most coaches would confidently say that their system is fully in place and being run comfortably by the team. I wish I could say the same, but I don't get the feeling that Spurrier and our offense is on the same page. Just this week we've read about Spurrier simplifying the playbook in order to make sure we can get plays off in time due to the new playclock rules. Spurrier's system is based off of an initial formation that the QB (or Spurrier on the sideline) reacts to, calling plays to take advantage of certain matchups. Due to certain personnel issues that Spurrier inherited, he's had to slap makeshift offenses together, often having to rebuild them mid-year based on the OL and QB play. As a consequence of this, the players in our system still don't have a complete grasp of what Spurrier wants them to do in every situation.
It's unfortunate, but in year four we need to start seeing our offense mature. During Holtz's last years, we saw the equivalent of a high-school offense, with the QB taking the snap and being the primary running back. Although it may work for Tebow, in most cases this is the kiss of death for college offenses.
Hopefully we'll see a maturing offense that begins to react organically to the things around it. If we do, the clipboard on the ground may be a thing of the past.
5. How much improvement will our Special Teams see?
With Succop routinely booming 50 yard field goals, most people wouldn't say our special teams were in trouble. Most people, however, would also be wrong. Other than Ryan's amazing leg our special teams have been among the worst in the SEC, if not college football. Our return and coverage teams have been dismal, resulting in a huge disadvantage in field position game after game. You simply can't win in the SEC having your offense consistently needing to go the length of the field while your defense has to defend a short field. In both the Vandy and Tennessee game last year USC outgained their opponents only to see poor field position cost them the win. 8-4 sounds a lot better than 6-6, doesn't it? No team seems to understand that more than Tennessee and Virginia Tech, and I've personally seen us lose at least two games to Tennessee that were soley due to special teams.
To address the issue, Spurrier brought in Coach Ray to revamp the special teams and turn this squad around. Early reports have been encouraging, with the team focusing on return and coverage schemes and assigning more starters to coverage roles (which has me nervous for other reasons...). Our return men should be improvements over what we've had in the past and, truthfully, any improvement over the last few years would be a huge help. When was the last time you saw a kickoff returned for a touchdown by a Gamecock? Well, if you were with me at Virginia and watched Matthew Thomas do it kudos to you.
Another helpful factor would be finding a punter to share kicking duties with Succop. I used to think it wouldn't matter if someone did both field goals and punts, but after watching Succop's inability to kick off into the endzone at the end of the season, I'm convinced we need to find someone to give him a rest.
The bottom line is that if we can improve our special teams to the point that field position is a positive for us we should see an extra one or two wins on top of last years totals.
I should have added a question 6 or a question 5a; Will this team develop the mental toughness needed to win? It's no secret why we play Georgia tough, our team simply believes they can beat Georgia. Why? They've done it. Looking back in hindsight at the Kentucky game last year, it becomes our second biggest win of the year. At the time I didn't, and I'm guessing the team didn't, put too much stock into it. Why? All we did was beat Kentucky. Until we walk into games against Clemson, Florida, and Tennessee with the same attitude, getting over that hump is going to be hard.
Well, there you have it, my top five questions for 2008. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on them, or even some of your top issues for the upcoming year. If you're wondering how I see the year playing out, I'm an optimistic realist, so I'm going to say 8-4 based on the questions I have above. 9-3 if our team develops the necessary mental attitude to beat the teams it's capable of beating, and 12-0 if God decides that we've had enough.
1. Will our QBs struggle or shine?
Contrary to popular belief, this Spurrier coached team doesn't need a heisman-trophy candidate at QB to win. Our QB needs to play within themselves, get the ball to the playmakers and, most importantly, make smart decisions. Beecher seems to have all the physical tools, and is capable of making the throws this offense needs. However, we've never seen him with the pressure of being the starting QB on him, with bullets flying in the SEC for real. The SEC is many things, but kind to a first year starting QB is not one of them. Smelley seemed to have the inside track on the starting job, but a hurt shoulder and consistently bad practice showings have moved him down the depth chart.
If all the recruiting hype is to be believed, Garcia should be our starting QB right now, but if you go back to my point about making smart decisions, you'll understand why he is not. At this point, it's an exercise in futility to count on him being the leader of this team, especially this year. He's simply too far behind in practice reps and experience to step in right away, even if all the off-field issues have been resolved. Garcia may well leave this campus with a multitude of passing records, but I don't think we can count on him racking up any yards this year.
So that puts in a frustrating position. Much like Lou Holtz, Spurrier enters his fourth year without a developed QB. I'm sure that like most of us Spurrier was hoping Garcia would be that player, but it just hasn't happened yet. If Beecher can come out, mature early and master Spurrier's system, this could be a very exciting year. If he can't, we'll see if Smelley has anything left in his tank or whether Garcia can somehow catch lightning in a bottle.
2. Can our Defense shake the injury bug?
On paper this is the deepest and most talented defense we've ever had at USC. Looking at the DL alone one is struck by the quality and depth. Lurking just underneath the surface of that however, is the reality that late 2007 could happen all over again.
Three of the defenses main weapons, Pepper, Hall, and Brinkley, have been battling long-standing injuries. Can Pepper and Hall's knees stand up to another long SEC season? If they can, and if they can regain their previous playing levels, our D-Line will be something to behold, with fresh bodies controlling the line late in games. If they can't our advantage at the line becomes diminished, and opposing OLs could push us around late in games just like last year.
Even more worrisome is Brinkley's nagging injuries. Not only is Jasper the most talented defensive player on the team, he's also the heart and soul and field general that the team sorely needs. Even at half strength his presence on the field against Georgia last year was notable. With Brinkley at full speed our defense becomes instantly better.
Another troubling side-effect of losing Brinkely to injury is the lack of mentoring that younger players like Sapp and Paulk could get from playing alongside him this year, making next year's loss of him less worrisome.
If those three players remain healthy, and we can stay relatively healthy in the secondary, we'll almost certainly be better on Defense than last year. That alone could translate into two or three more wins.
3. Will we develop a consistent OL rotation?
Other than QB development, the lack of OL consistency and development ranks as Spurrier's biggest disappointment in my book. Out of a late start, his staff signed no OL the first year, and we've been paying for it for the last two years. This year marks the year that the highly-touted second-year OL class comes of age. Instead of searching for lineups as the season progresses as we have in the past, we should have a fairly solid starting lineup from game one this year. Whether this unit will develop into a cohesive team, or whether someone will approach the steady play of White at center remains to be seen.
The talent and size do appear to be in place for the OL to have a break-out year, but I'm waiting to be convinced that the line will display the technique and aggressiveness that this unit has lacked in the past. Last year's game against Vandy was a case in point. The undersized and less talented D Line of Vandy manhandled our OL and spent all day in the backfield. Our linemen repeatedly failed to call out blitzes and identify schemes, giving Vandy's D a free hand in shutting down our attack. Hopefully we'll never see a display like that again.
I'm hoping that the addition of King to the line will inject the mean-streak this unit needs. He's rumored to play with an aggressive attitude, and if others can follow his lead and take their assignments personally, then the QB play won't matter quite as much. The running game will open up and make the passing game easier to implement. If not, all the improvements to the Defense won't matter, they'll be too tired to stop anyone.
4. Will we finally see a SOS offense?
After four years, most coaches would confidently say that their system is fully in place and being run comfortably by the team. I wish I could say the same, but I don't get the feeling that Spurrier and our offense is on the same page. Just this week we've read about Spurrier simplifying the playbook in order to make sure we can get plays off in time due to the new playclock rules. Spurrier's system is based off of an initial formation that the QB (or Spurrier on the sideline) reacts to, calling plays to take advantage of certain matchups. Due to certain personnel issues that Spurrier inherited, he's had to slap makeshift offenses together, often having to rebuild them mid-year based on the OL and QB play. As a consequence of this, the players in our system still don't have a complete grasp of what Spurrier wants them to do in every situation.
It's unfortunate, but in year four we need to start seeing our offense mature. During Holtz's last years, we saw the equivalent of a high-school offense, with the QB taking the snap and being the primary running back. Although it may work for Tebow, in most cases this is the kiss of death for college offenses.
Hopefully we'll see a maturing offense that begins to react organically to the things around it. If we do, the clipboard on the ground may be a thing of the past.
5. How much improvement will our Special Teams see?
With Succop routinely booming 50 yard field goals, most people wouldn't say our special teams were in trouble. Most people, however, would also be wrong. Other than Ryan's amazing leg our special teams have been among the worst in the SEC, if not college football. Our return and coverage teams have been dismal, resulting in a huge disadvantage in field position game after game. You simply can't win in the SEC having your offense consistently needing to go the length of the field while your defense has to defend a short field. In both the Vandy and Tennessee game last year USC outgained their opponents only to see poor field position cost them the win. 8-4 sounds a lot better than 6-6, doesn't it? No team seems to understand that more than Tennessee and Virginia Tech, and I've personally seen us lose at least two games to Tennessee that were soley due to special teams.
To address the issue, Spurrier brought in Coach Ray to revamp the special teams and turn this squad around. Early reports have been encouraging, with the team focusing on return and coverage schemes and assigning more starters to coverage roles (which has me nervous for other reasons...). Our return men should be improvements over what we've had in the past and, truthfully, any improvement over the last few years would be a huge help. When was the last time you saw a kickoff returned for a touchdown by a Gamecock? Well, if you were with me at Virginia and watched Matthew Thomas do it kudos to you.
Another helpful factor would be finding a punter to share kicking duties with Succop. I used to think it wouldn't matter if someone did both field goals and punts, but after watching Succop's inability to kick off into the endzone at the end of the season, I'm convinced we need to find someone to give him a rest.
The bottom line is that if we can improve our special teams to the point that field position is a positive for us we should see an extra one or two wins on top of last years totals.
I should have added a question 6 or a question 5a; Will this team develop the mental toughness needed to win? It's no secret why we play Georgia tough, our team simply believes they can beat Georgia. Why? They've done it. Looking back in hindsight at the Kentucky game last year, it becomes our second biggest win of the year. At the time I didn't, and I'm guessing the team didn't, put too much stock into it. Why? All we did was beat Kentucky. Until we walk into games against Clemson, Florida, and Tennessee with the same attitude, getting over that hump is going to be hard.
Well, there you have it, my top five questions for 2008. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on them, or even some of your top issues for the upcoming year. If you're wondering how I see the year playing out, I'm an optimistic realist, so I'm going to say 8-4 based on the questions I have above. 9-3 if our team develops the necessary mental attitude to beat the teams it's capable of beating, and 12-0 if God decides that we've had enough.