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Ericvol2096 05-01-2014 10:27 AM

ESPN SEC East Projections
 
I don't agree with this ranking at all.

My list

1-USC - 10-2
2-UGA - 10-2
3-UT - 7-5
3-UM-7-5
3-UF-7-5
6-Vandy-5-7
7-UK-3-9
SEC East







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1. South Carolina Gamecocks
Projected finish: 10-2 (6-2)
Chance to win SEC: 20 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 26 percent






Replacing the presumed No. 1 overall NFL draft pick in Jadeveon Clowney is certainly a challenge, but South Carolina has a healthy number of starters back in the fold and Steve Spurrier's track record of success can't be ignored in the projection model. The Gamecocks didn't have much flashy productivity on offense last year, but they were efficient, controlling the ball with the fourth-most methodical offense (23 percent of drives lasted at least 10 plays) and limiting opponent possessions as a result. The backfield led by running back Mike Davis (1,183 yards, 5.8 yards per carry in 2013) is projected to reinforce that ball-control identity this fall. South Carolina draws both Georgia and Missouri at home, games that should put it in the driver's seat for the division title.






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2. Georgia Bulldogs
Projected finish: 9-3 (5-3)
Chance to win SEC: 8 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 11 percent






Teams that were better than their record in one season often find the pendulum swings back in their favor the following year, and Georgia may be one of the best candidates across the country to bounce back in 2014 after a very difficult season. Four of the Bulldogs' five losses last year came by five points or fewer, and turnovers played a part in all of those games. The other major factor was a defense that just couldn't get stops, allowing 42 percent of opponent drives to cross the Georgia 30-yard line (89th nationally). Ten starters are back on defense this fall, including linebacker Ramik Wilson, who led the team and finished the season tied for 10th nationally in tackles (133). That defense will be responsible for helping to overcome the loss of four-year starter Aaron Murray. Georgia draws two of its toughest tests of the season early, hosting Clemson in nonconference play to start the year and traveling to South Carolina in Week 3. A strong start (my projection model gives Georgia a 79 percent chance of a split or better) will help erase the bad memories from 2013 in a hurry.


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3. Missouri Tigers
Projected finish: 9-3 (5-3)
Chance to win SEC: 6 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 7 percent






The Tigers won the SEC East last year and positioned themselves for an opportunity to play for the BCS championship before falling short in the SEC title game against Auburn. A step back is likely in the works due in no small part to Missouri returning fewer starters in 2014 than any other SEC team (nine total). The offense has the biggest question marks, especially following the April announcement that wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham had been kicked off the team. The projection model looks favorably on Missouri's program trendline to overcome that attrition, but if the Tigers are going to contend again this fall, they have to thrive on factors like field position control. A year ago, Missouri allowed only 7 percent of opponent drives to start in Tigers territory, the eighth-lowest rate nationally and a key for tilting unfavorable matchups their way.


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4. Florida Gators
Projected finish: 7-5 (4-4)
Chance to win SEC: 1 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent





The Gators finished the 2013 season on a seven-game losing streak, and the seat under coach Will Muschamp couldn't be hotter. The offense was held to 20 or fewer points in all seven of those games, and the unit was dreadful all season (101st in avoiding three-and outs, 92nd in points per possession). There isn't much confidence in Florida's ability to make a major turnaround on that side of the ball immediately. Defense and special teams can lead the way once again (top 25 in non-offensive efficiency last year), which is why the projection model forecasts a return to bowl eligibility. A mediocre season may not be enough for Muschamp to survive in Gainesville, but it might make the recovery process for future seasons easier.


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5. Vanderbilt Commodores
Projected finish: 6-6 (3-5)
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent





James Franklin brought Vanderbilt up from doormat status to holding its own in the SEC, setting a baseline for the program under new coach Derek Mason. His defenses at Stanford were outstanding, and there is room to improve that side of the ball at Vandy, which never cracked the top 25 in our opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ratings under Franklin. The Commodores seized on favorable field position in 2013, starting 18 percent of their drives in opponent territory (No. 2 nationally), and field position advantages were another hallmark of the Stanford success model Mason brings to the table. Bowl eligibility will come down to the swing games against Ole Miss, Kentucky, Florida and Tennessee (71 percent chance of going 2-2 or better in those games).


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6. Tennessee Volunteers
Projected finish: 4-8 (1-7)
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent





Program progress is measured by most in terms of wins and losses, but Tennessee fans would be wise to focus on other signs of improvement this season. Why? The schedule may be too burdensome for that improvement to show up in the win column. The Volunteers face Oklahoma, Georgia, Alabama, Missouri and South Carolina -- all five of which rank among the top 20 in our projected FEI rankings (out Monday on Insider) and three of which rank among the short list of legitimate national championship contenders. Tennessee's defense is the biggest liability to pulling upsets in any of these games, as it allowed explosive drives (averaging at least 10 yards per play) on 18 percent of opponent possessions last season.


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7. Kentucky Wildcats
Projected finish: 4-8 (1-7)
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent





The Wildcats return more starters (16) than any other SEC program, but the talent is still a long way from closing the gap with the rest of the conference. The projection model gives Kentucky less than a 40 percent chance of winning any individual conference game and a decent chance of going winless in conference play (21 percent) for the third straight season. The defense has almost nowhere to go but up, and it can start to turn things around if it finds a few more wins on opponents' first series of drives. Kentucky forced a three-and-out on only 21 percent of opponent possessions last year, the fifth-worst mark in the country.

usc1 05-01-2014 10:46 AM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
Yeah that list is a little off. Tennessee should finish ahead of Vandy and UF should finish ahead of Mizzou. I see it being like this:

1. USC 10-2
2. UGA 9-3
3. UF 8-4
4. Mizzou 7-5
5. UT 7-5
6. Vandy 5-7
7. UK 4-8

Could see Vandy and UK flip flopping as well (but who really cares) and Mizzou possibly going 8-4. UF is an 8-4 team and UGA is a step above at 9-3. I was being optimistic with our projection...9-3 is more likely IMO.

CoverTwo 05-01-2014 10:51 AM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
I think Kentucky is going to be a lot better than people think. If Towles or Barker are as good as advertised then they have something to build around. Returning all of those starters makes them dangerous because of experience IMO. I wouldn't be surprised if they are 6-6.

uscGRAD04 05-01-2014 10:56 AM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
Yeah, pretty harsh on UT. They will not finish 1-7 in SEC. Two guaranteed WINS over Kentucky and Vandy. Home games against Mizzou and Florida are good chances for wins and I think they can take Ole Miss if they play well. I'm saying 4-4 +/- one game. Would be great to see Mizzou go down at Rocky Top...show them how it feels

kick_ball 05-01-2014 11:12 AM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
UK will be better .. vandy will be worse and i think fl and tenn may be in a battle for 4th

CoverTwo 05-01-2014 11:30 AM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
I'm not buying the Missouri hype either. I doubt they finish in the Top 4 in the division.

I think its going to be something like:

1. USC/UGA
2. UGA/USC
3. UF
4. UT
5. UK
6. UM
7. VU

usc1 05-01-2014 12:08 PM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by CoverTwo (Post 4147486)
I'm not buying the Missouri hype either. I doubt they finish in the Top 4 in the division.

I think its going to be something like:

1. USC/UGA
2. UGA/USC
3. UF
4. UT
5. UK
6. UM
7. VU


I don't think they'll be that great either but they have 4 easy non conference games plus Vandy, UK, and Arky all at home. They should be at least a 7-5 team.

MWard 05-01-2014 12:14 PM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by CoverTwo (Post 4147486)
I'm not buying the Missouri hype either. I doubt they finish in the Top 4 in the division.

I think its going to be something like:

1. USC/UGA
2. UGA/USC
3. UF
4. UT
5. UK
6. UM
7. VU

I agree with that. For SC it will come down to our ability to stop the passing game with new DE's/CB's and for uga it will be the same, but they also need to break in a new QB who has been awful thus far.

I think uf will improve and be above .500, ut will be around 6-6, and mizzou will fall quickly back down to their reality.

Flameout12 05-01-2014 12:25 PM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
UGA post-Aaron Murray?

snruter amabon 05-01-2014 12:31 PM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
In my honest opinion there is really only one game on the schedule that worries me & that is due to our track record against them. If we get by Auburn I could see us going undefeated.

CoverTwo 05-01-2014 12:31 PM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Flameout12 (Post 4147555)
UGA post-Aaron Murray?

Their defense is going to be beastly under Pruitt, IMO. Combine that with their running backs (not just Gurley) and all of their receivers returning; the new guy should just have to worry about protecting the football.

U-Dub Gamecock 05-01-2014 01:54 PM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
UT has to replace both lines(OL/DL)... It all depends on how quickly those 2 groups gel.

GamecockSuperFan 05-01-2014 03:10 PM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
lol it says we have a higher chance of going 12-0 than winning the SEC.. that makes sense.

B-G 05-01-2014 03:22 PM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by GamecockSuperFan (Post 4147708)
lol it says we have a higher chance of going 12-0 than winning the SEC.. that makes sense.

Well it does.

12 regular season games. We win them all we are 12-0, the SECCG is game number 13.

In 2008 Bama did it and the next year Florida did it.

(Basically they say we could go 12-0 then lose to the west in the SECCG)

gamecockjay 05-01-2014 03:49 PM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
I just dont see us going at least 10-2 in the regualr season. I hope I am wrong but we are looking at 8-4/9-3 imo.

SCohioBoy 05-01-2014 03:58 PM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
Carolina
UGA--Solid but not sold on their QB
Florida--Have a lot to prove
Missouri--Maty is the real deal and they still have talent at WR
Tenn--Too many Question marks
Vandy--Wild Card-
UK--Not sold on either QB or rest of the team.

ReadR00ster 05-01-2014 04:23 PM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Flameout12 (Post 4147555)
UGA post-Aaron Murray?

They're a tough team, but I like our chances at home and I think our defense will be a good bit tougher against the run this year compared to last, though probably not as good against the pass. That will put it in the hand's of their QB. Which is in our favor early in the year at home.

Gamecocks1137 05-01-2014 04:25 PM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SCohioBoy (Post 4147754)
Carolina
UGA--Solid but not sold on their QB
Florida--Have a lot to prove
Missouri--Maty is the real deal and they still have talent at WR
Tenn--Too many Question marks
Vandy--Wild Card-
UK--Not sold on either QB or rest of the team.

You do know DGB was released from their team right? (Mizzou)

SCohioBoy 05-01-2014 09:55 PM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Gamecocks1137 (Post 4147783)
You do know DGB was released from their team right? (Mizzou)

Yes

MisterClowney 05-01-2014 10:09 PM

Re: ESPN SEC East Projections
 
I'm feeling that 10-2. Hopefully that will be enough to get us to ATL.


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