Originally Posted by jhaze7683
So here is the situation as I see it... UGA has another loss against Florida, and we win against Florida, and finish the SEC 7-1, and win the East. UGA finishes with a 10-2 record sitting at home as we play for the title...
Snap...since Saturday, I've been thinking this:
Georgia with a 10-2 record would still win the East, because their other loss would be OOC (Clemson). In order for us to play for the SEC championship, we need to win the rest of our conference games and they need to drop two games within the conference (with the most likely candidates being LSU and Florida).
But I just checked the tie-break rules, and you're totally right. In the event of a three-way tie, once you get far down enough (like, tie-breaker #4 or something), the team with the best overall record wins (where the overall record includes both in-conference and out-of-conference games). So if we win out and Georgia loses to Florida, Georgia and Florida would both be 10-2 and we'd win the division with an 11-1 record. If Georgia loses to LSU but beats Florida, we're out of the SECCG. If Georgia loses to LSU and
Florida, high fives for everyone.
I could also imagine this scenario playing out, which would get us to the NCG without playing in the SECCG (I think chances are slim...but it could
Carolina, Georgia, and Clemson all win out (well, Clemson loses to Carolina in November). Carolina finishes the regular season 11-1, with our final win against Clemson. If Clemson wins out (and they could--their only real remaining threat is FSU (and Clemsoning)), they could very possibly be one of the top 2 teams in the country (Bama could lose to A&M this week, Oregon is in for a tough game when they play at
Stanford this year). If we manage to win out, we should be around the top 5, and a win over a top 2 team could easily put us in the top 3. Assuming Georgia wins out, they'll be in the SECCG--and at this point, it really doesn't matter what happens in the championship game. If Georgia gets stomped by Bama, A&M, or LSU, we have a fair shot of making the NCG (against another SEC team--but one that we haven't played yet this season). We'd be a one-loss team, with that loss coming early in the season and our most recent victory over a top 3 team. If Georgia wins, things might be trickier because of the whole rematch situation, but I still think the polls could work some magic in our favor.
All that being said, we really only have limited control over our own destiny at this point. If we win out, we could still be left out in the cold, depending on how other teams do (both in the SEC and OOC). Our best hope is for every team from other conferences to stumble along the way (so no power conference has an undefeated champion) and hopefully be able to make it as a one-loss SEC team. This would be easier if we end up being SEC champs, but I think it's more realistic that we miss the SECCG and somehow get in as a top-3 team that just beat Clemson.