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Old 12-17-2013, 08:08 PM   #14
GarnetInChicago
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Default Re: AP All-Americans and Recruiting Rankings.

Ugh, this discussion again?

1) Star ratings are not the end-all, be-all. Coaches' evaluations of course matter.
2) Yes, 2-star and 3-star players can become studs too.

BUT

If you look at the likelihood of 1 of 20-30 five-star players becoming a college standout versus 1 of 200 four-star players becoming a college standout versus the likelihood of 1 of 1000 3-star players becoming a college standout .... the numbers pretty clearly reveal you have a substantially higher likelihood of getting a player who turns out to be great once he gets to college from the 5-star rated player pool than you do from the lower-rated players pool.

OF COURSE that doesn't turn out to be true every single time. OF COURSE coaches can find diamonds in the rough that the ratings people had lower-rated. Does that mean these ratings people are completely off their rockers and getting these rankings wrong or that they don't matter? NO.
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