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Old 06-28-2014, 05:45 PM   #5
sunbeam
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Default Re: SEC Network getting nervous

I dunno I think sports in this country is yet another bubble like housing or the late 90's stock bubble.

It is pretty much a product of how much money cable companies are willing to pay for content.

And as an aside, they charge all their customers in order to subsidize programming that appeals to a subset of those customers.

Cable (and broadcast TV) are in a long term decline in viewership, pretty much due to the internet, both for a competitor in video, and with totally different forms of entertainment.

One day a major sport is going to try to renegotiate a contract, and find there are no bidders at the price they are expecting. Or maybe no bidders.

And that day is going to change everything. If I owned a sports team, I'd sell it ASAP. I have no idea if I'd lose some appreciation by selling short of a "market top," but these things are hard to time. Based on my reading I was pretty sure the housing market was a bubble by 2004 (along with a lot of other people), but it kept on trucking till late 2007.

And the SEC is no different from anything else. You see Devil's Advocate posters (some one brought up major league baseball in a thread I participated in once, though I don't understand what is different with them), but there is no way SEC teams are paying for all this football related infrastructure from ticket sales and concessions. Some teams make good money from merchandise, but I'd bet that is a drop in the bucket compared to TV money.

If sports teams had to make broadcast revenue from some kind of pay per view internet thing, they would go broke or have to adjust in a hurry. And I'm not talking about piracy, I just don't think they could sell 25 million dollars or so in viewership rights over the internet (referring to the SEC here).

Well anyway, it is a little early. But things like Texas high schools building 50,000 seat stadiums on the public dime? That is a bubble sign in my book.
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