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Thread: 6-6 prediction

  1. #41
    1st Team All-American Cockypantherfan's Avatar
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    Default Re: 6-6 prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by ConwayGamecock View Post
    In 2017, we went 9-4, but it is pretty rare for any Power 5 program to win 9+ games, and still end up outside of the final top 25 polls, which we did. That was because despite the successful season, our strength of schedule was weak. We played UGA and Clemson, who both played in the CFP, and didn't do too badly against them. We beat Michigan in the bowl game. But the rest of the schedule was pretty bad, and most online sites had our final SOS barely inside of the national top 50, if even inside of it.

    Last season (2018), our SOS was much better, and we finished ranked in the top 15 nationally for most sources. We went 7-6, but had several close losses. Our defense struggled all season with poor rush defense and injury attrition. There were three games USC lost that might have gone differently had the team executed better:

    At Kentucky: they beat us in Lexington 24-10, but 21 of those points all came in the 2nd Quarter. Our run defense struggled against their RB-QB rush options with Snell, Wilson, and Rose, giving up nearly 200 yds and 3 TDs. UK couldn't hurt us much via the pass, but Bentley played poorly with 3 INTs, the last one that killed a good offensive drive. We had one more 1st down than UK did, and only 6 fewer total offensive yards, but between 3 INTs and 1 fumble to UK's 1 total turnover, and several hurtful special teams penalties that kept UK in strong field positioning and us in poor positioning, and finally our defense unable to stop their run game, that 2nd Qtr. was all UK needed.

    Texas A&M: they beat us in Williams-Brice 26-23 - they out-scored us 13-0 in the first half, we out-scored them 23-13 in the 2nd. TAMU out-gained us 458-299 - the average yds per play was 5.9 them to 5.6 us, which is fairly even, but this game our poor defense wasn't able to stop them either on the ground or through the air, and they had 77 offensive plays to our 53. We only had 2 turnovers (A&M had 0), but they were pretty painful: Edwards fumbled away a punt return in the 1st half that would have had us starting that possession in excellent field positioning, and Bentley threw his INT into the Aggie endzone after we had 1st and Goal at the Aggie 5-yd line. Both turnovers were in the 1st half and kept USC from cutting into the 13-0 Aggie lead, and considering we ultimately lost the game by 3 points, they were very huge game-deciding turnovers.

    At Florida: they beat us in Gainesville 35-31. USC held a 31-14 lead at the 4:41 minute mark of the 3rd Qtr. Again, this was a case of average yds per play being fairly even for both teams, but Florida had 528 total yds to USC's 386 due to our defense not being able to stop the Gators from running the ball and moving the chains, and staying on the field. Florida ran 83 plays to our 64, and ultimately wore our defense down, to where towards the end of the game they could do with us as they pleased.


    For 2019, our defense has to play better - especially against the run - and our offense has to reduce the turnovers. Had we had our 2017 run defense, IMO we could have turned 2 of those 3 losses into wins, and could have equaled our 2017 win total of 9 games, playing a much tougher schedule. Going 9-4 in 2017 looked good, but going 9-4 in 2018 would have had us finish the season in the top 25, even with the loss to UVA in the bowl. We could have even gone 3-0 in those 3 games, instead of 2-1.

    So, unless we have another rash of injuries for 2019, or there aren't any improvements or corrections to the above issues, IMO we should do better than go 6-6 in 2019. Our schedule from 2018 is only different due to one single opponent: Alabama. Adding Alabama to our schedule should make an impact of 2-3 games difference. Every other program (Tennessee, Missouri, Florida, Vanderbilt) gets to improve from last season due to experience and maturity, but we're supposed to sit still or even get worse, because our injured players all heal and return to us? It doesn't make much sense, and only served to have the entire fanbase not have any excitement or positive feelings for the season, all because of one single opponent that we're 3-3 against over the last 6 games that we've played them....
    Last year's Florida game still makes me nauseous. Cannot believe the collapse..

  2. #42
    Heisman Candidate Flameout12's Avatar
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    Default Re: 6-6 prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Lalli25 View Post
    Iím not bothered just think itís funny you are so bitter about Muschamp hire 3-4 years later that you canít comprehend this isnít a new USC problem.
    I'm not bitter. Quit making stuff up. This is your pissing contest....not mine.

  3. #43
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    Default Re: 6-6 prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by ConwayGamecock View Post
    In 2017, we went 9-4, but it is pretty rare for any Power 5 program to win 9+ games, and still end up outside of the final top 25 polls, which we did. That was because despite the successful season, our strength of schedule was weak. We played UGA and Clemson, who both played in the CFP, and didn't do too badly against them. We beat Michigan in the bowl game. But the rest of the schedule was pretty bad, and most online sites had our final SOS barely inside of the national top 50, if even inside of it.

    Last season (2018), our SOS was much better, and we finished ranked in the top 15 nationally for most sources. We went 7-6, but had several close losses. Our defense struggled all season with poor rush defense and injury attrition. There were three games USC lost that might have gone differently had the team executed better:

    At Kentucky: they beat us in Lexington 24-10, but 21 of those points all came in the 2nd Quarter. Our run defense struggled against their RB-QB rush options with Snell, Wilson, and Rose, giving up nearly 200 yds and 3 TDs. UK couldn't hurt us much via the pass, but Bentley played poorly with 3 INTs, the last one that killed a good offensive drive. We had one more 1st down than UK did, and only 6 fewer total offensive yards, but between 3 INTs and 1 fumble to UK's 1 total turnover, and several hurtful special teams penalties that kept UK in strong field positioning and us in poor positioning, and finally our defense unable to stop their run game, that 2nd Qtr. was all UK needed.

    Texas A&M: they beat us in Williams-Brice 26-23 - they out-scored us 13-0 in the first half, we out-scored them 23-13 in the 2nd. TAMU out-gained us 458-299 - the average yds per play was 5.9 them to 5.6 us, which is fairly even, but this game our poor defense wasn't able to stop them either on the ground or through the air, and they had 77 offensive plays to our 53. We only had 2 turnovers (A&M had 0), but they were pretty painful: Edwards fumbled away a punt return in the 1st half that would have had us starting that possession in excellent field positioning, and Bentley threw his INT into the Aggie endzone after we had 1st and Goal at the Aggie 5-yd line. Both turnovers were in the 1st half and kept USC from cutting into the 13-0 Aggie lead, and considering we ultimately lost the game by 3 points, they were very huge game-deciding turnovers.

    At Florida: they beat us in Gainesville 35-31. USC held a 31-14 lead at the 4:41 minute mark of the 3rd Qtr. Again, this was a case of average yds per play being fairly even for both teams, but Florida had 528 total yds to USC's 386 due to our defense not being able to stop the Gators from running the ball and moving the chains, and staying on the field. Florida ran 83 plays to our 64, and ultimately wore our defense down, to where towards the end of the game they could do with us as they pleased.


    For 2019, our defense has to play better - especially against the run - and our offense has to reduce the turnovers. Had we had our 2017 run defense, IMO we could have turned 2 of those 3 losses into wins, and could have equaled our 2017 win total of 9 games, playing a much tougher schedule. Going 9-4 in 2017 looked good, but going 9-4 in 2018 would have had us finish the season in the top 25, even with the loss to UVA in the bowl. We could have even gone 3-0 in those 3 games, instead of 2-1.

    So, unless we have another rash of injuries for 2019, or there aren't any improvements or corrections to the above issues, IMO we should do better than go 6-6 in 2019. Our schedule from 2018 is only different due to one single opponent: Alabama. Adding Alabama to our schedule should NOT make an impact of 2-3 games difference, especially if our team improves from last season as all teams are expected to, and we don't have heavy injuries again. Every other program (Tennessee, Missouri, Florida, Vanderbilt) gets to improve from last season due to experience and maturity, but we're supposed to sit still or even get worse, because our injured players all heal and return to us? It doesn't make much sense, and only served to have the entire fanbase not have any excitement or positive feelings for the season, all because of one single opponent that we're 3-3 against over the last 6 games that we've played them....
    Very good points. I remember watching the Florida game and thinking at the time "If BAW hadn't been hurt the game before, we win." At UK, the linebacker play was terrible. DJ Wonnum was out, and it likely made the difference.

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