Rivals Rankings Hit-Miss? 2005

[longcock]

I was talking with a buddy about whether Lattimore was crucial to our class. I initially argued that our current backs were good (maybe not great), but that Rivals/Scout/ESPN rankings were more about selling subscriptions.

However, I think I've changed my mind... at least for the moment. It seem like half are studs and half are duds.

Here are the Rivals 2005 Top 23... feel free to search for more... I just got tired.

1. Derrick Williams (Penn St) - 18th pick 3rd round
2. Patrick Turner (S.Cal) - 3rd round
3. Eugene Monroe (Va) - 1st round (8th overall)
4. Melvin Alaeze (MD) - incarcerated
5. Rey Maualuga (S.Cal) - 2nd round
6. Fred Rouse (Fl State) - incarcerated. kicked off. transferred.
7. Mark Sanchez (S.Cal) - 1st round
8. Martellus Bennet (TX A&M) - 2nd round
9. Reginald Youngblood (Miami) - bust. not even starting at Miami.
10. Jonathan Stewart (OR ) - 1st round (13th overall)

11. DeMarcus Granger (OK) - injured. possible NFL potential
12. Kenny Phillips, Miami - 1st round
13. Marlon Lucky, Nebraska - undrafted free agent.
14. Callahan Bright, FSU - failed to qualify
15. Jason Gwaltney, WV - bust
16. Ryan Perrilloux, LSU - Bust
17. Tray Blackmon, Auburn - bust. always suspended. undrafted.
18. DeSean Jackson, Cal - 2nd round.
19. Justin King, Penn State - 4th round

20. Alex Boone, Ohio State - alcohol issues. undrafted and then cut.
21. Dee Morley, Tennessee - dismissed from TN. vanished.
22. Kevin Grady, Michigan- Bust. though he scored a TD in the same game as his brother.
23. Darren McFadden, Arkansas - 1st Round. (there were 22 recruits ranked higher?)

Other notables
29. Mohammed Massaquoi
42. James Davis
45. Mario Manningham
48. Michael Oher
51. Ndamukong Suh
57. Jamaal Charles
59. Ricky Jean Francois
60. Jonathan Crompton
67. CJ Byrd - SC grown.
77. Eric Huggins - SC grown. signed with OK. Transferred to Newberry.
86. Carlos Thomas
88. OJ Murdock
90. Rashard Mendenhall
99. Jonathan Hannah
100. Montario Hardesty




Notable misses
Colt McCoy, 3* QB
Felix Jones, 4* ATH
Darius Heyward-Bey, 4* WR
Louis Murphy, 3* (#37 WR!!)
Duke Robinson, 4* (#15 OT)
James Laurinatis, 3* (#28 ILB)
Rashard Mendenhall (#9 RB)
Javon Ringer 3* (#18 RB)
Glen Coffee 3* (#29 RB)
Donald Brown 3* (#53 RB)
Chase Daniel 3* (#6 DTQB)
Zac Robinson 3* (#10 DTQB)
Matt Grothe 3* (#24 DTQB)

[pcreek]

Whatever happen to Tray Blackmon?

[longcock]

Originally Posted by pcreek

Whatever happen to Tray Blackmon?

Playing for the Calgary Stampeders http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tray_Blackmon

[FlorenceCock]

Jonathon Stewart played for Oregon not Oregon State.

[longcock]

Originally Posted by FlorenceCock

Jonathon Stewart played for Oregon not Oregon State.

ahh the beauty of internet message boards. I'll fix it if it truly hurt your feelings. ;)

[USCMM]

Originally Posted by longcock

1. Derrick Williams (Penn St) - 18th pick 3rd round
2. Patrick Turner (S.Cal) - 3rd round
3. Eugene Monroe (Va) - 1st round (8th overall)
4. Melvin Alaeze (MD) - incarcerated
5. Rey Maualuga (S.Cal) - 2nd round
6. Fred Rouse (Fl State) - incarcerated. kicked off. transferred.
7. Mark Sanchez (S.Cal) - 1st round
8. Martellus Bennet (TX A&M) - 2nd round
9. Reginald Youngblood (Miami) - bust. not even starting at Miami.
10. Jonathan Stewart (OR ) - 1st round (13th overall)

11. DeMarcus Granger (OK) - injured. possible NFL potential
12. Kenny Phillips, Miami - 1st round
13. Marlon Lucky, Nebraska - undrafted free agent.
14. Callahan Bright, FSU - failed to qualify
15. Jason Gwaltney, WV - bust
16. Ryan Perrilloux, LSU - Bust
17. Tray Blackmon, Auburn - bust. always suspended. undrafted.
18. DeSean Jackson, Cal - 2nd round.
19. Justin King, Penn State - 4th round
20. Alex Boone, Ohio State - alcohol issues. undrafted and then cut.

So, according to the 2005 season, only 50% of the top 20 are "quality" recruits. About 25% percent get kicked off the team or fail to qualify. And, the other 25% are busts.

[LegalCock]

Looks like most of the "busts" were due to off the field problems. so maybe if you get a five star kid who doesn't have behavior issues you've got about a 75% chance of having a stud.

[gotrice?]

Originally Posted by USCMM

So, according to the 2005 season, only 50% of the top 20 are "quality" recruits. About 25% percent get kicked off the team or fail to qualify. And, the other 25% are busts.

Look at the number of busts who are 3 stars or lower. A higher percentage of them never do much of anything at a quality school or get drafted. A 50/50 shot is a good shot to me.

[USCMM]

Originally Posted by LegalCock

Looks like most of the "busts" were due to off the field problems. so maybe if you get a five star kid who doesn't have behavior issues you've got about a 75% chance of having a stud.

I also think that rivals has revised their strategy since 2005 in which character issues are also accounted into the rankings--at least more severely. So, I would like to see if there are less character issues in the top 20 now.

[USCULater]

Pretty good look at how the rankings are really hit or miss.
They are the very definition of subjectivity.

Potential is the key word.
The top 25 guys at any position are probably pretty inter-changable in college...depending on the system.

Good point about the off the field issues.
If these guys can stay on the field, their chances of not being a bust greatly improve!

[carolinafreak84]

i think rivals has definitely improve their rankings, IMO the old way they did things was not very efficient. a lot of the recruits from 2005 earlier were busts, i know rivals can not control this, but it is their job to evaluate talent and rank them accordingly. i feel like their system they use now is much more improved and that a higher percentage of their "5 stars" end up actually having an impact and are not busts. thats just how i feel about it though.

[longcock]

Originally Posted by carolinafreak84

i think rivals has definitely improve their rankings, IMO the old way they did things was not very efficient. a lot of the recruits from 2005 earlier were busts, i know rivals can not control this, but it is their job to evaluate talent and rank them accordingly. i feel like their system they use now is much more improved and that a higher percentage of their "5 stars" end up actually having an impact and are not busts. thats just how i feel about it though.

only time will tell... I guess.

But, I'm pretty impressed with Rivals 2005 rankings. They were pretty accurate. You can't really tell who is going to flunk out, or who will go nuts... there's a little bit of crazy in every 18 yr old.

Either way, it's pretty clear that if Lattimore is a Top 10 prospect, assuming he can keep his nose clean, he's got a VERY good chance to be special.

[gamecockjay]

OJ Murdoch was ranked higher than Mendenhall. Did OJ ever play for USF?

[poppabeary3]

More likely to be arrested than drafted....
http://www.fanhouse.com/tag/Melvin+Alaeze/