Bowl Projections

[uscgamecocks88]

Let's assume FSU wins the ACC and goes to the Orange Bowl. Who would the 2nd ACC team be? Would they want a 10-2 Clemson team with a weak schedule with a fresh loss to South Carolina and a beatdown from FSU early?

I still think we will either be going to Outback or Chick Fil A. Things will clear up soon. Or they should.

[uscjeremynca]

Originally Posted by uscgamecocks88

Let's assume FSU wins the ACC and goes to the Orange Bowl. Who would the 2nd ACC team be? Would they want a 10-2 Clemson team with a weak schedule with a fresh loss to South Carolina and a beatdown from FSU early?

I still think we will either be going to Outback or Chick Fil A. Things will clear up soon. Or they should.

In ESPN's bowl projections for Clemson in the Sugar, they are assuming that Clemson beats us and moves into the top 10.

I am not sure why so many people are missing that when reading ESPN's bowl projections.

[uscgamecocks88]

Originally Posted by uscjeremynca

In ESPN's bowl projections for Clemson in the Sugar, they are assuming that Clemson beats us and moves into the top 10.

I am not sure why so many people are missing that when reading ESPN's bowl projections.

Yes I understand that. I was just wondering who would be the ACC's second BCS team? I have us beating Clemson...just asking if the BCS would take a 10-2 Clemson team who just lost to South Carolina, their rivals, at home.

[I Bleed Garnet]

Originally Posted by uscgamecocks88

Yes I understand that. I was just wondering who would be the ACC's second BCS team? I have us beating Clemson...just asking if the BCS would take a 10-2 Clemson team who just lost to South Carolina, their rivals, at home.

BCS conferences are only guaranteed one BCS bowl.
The other is picked as an at large pick.

Now if they do lose to us they'd have to be in the top 14 to get the at large selection.

If they aren't they will not be going to a BCS bowl.
That of course unless there are too many non eligible teams in the BCS top 14, which would make it top 18.

The Big Ten is only getting one BCS team this year.

As of right now I would say the only lock for a BCS bowl if they lose out is ND.

[Red Devil]

Originally Posted by uscgamecocks88

Yes I understand that. I was just wondering who would be the ACC's second BCS team? I have us beating Clemson...just asking if the BCS would take a 10-2 Clemson team who just lost to South Carolina, their rivals, at home.

They don't have to get a 2nd BCS bowl. The Champion gets one and another CAN get a BCS bowl if they finish in the top 14, but the bowls don't have to take them.

[GarnetInChicago]

Originally Posted by uscgamecocks88

Yes I understand that. I was just wondering who would be the ACC's second BCS team? I have us beating Clemson...just asking if the BCS would take a 10-2 Clemson team who just lost to South Carolina, their rivals, at home.

It's quite possible. You have to look at who is behind Clemson and what is likely to play out in the final 2 weeks of the regular season.

Here are the current BCS standings:

Team BCS Average
1 Kansas State
2 Oregon
3 Notre Dame
4 Alabama
5 Georgia
6 Florida
7 LSU
8 Texas A&M
9 South Carolina
10 Florida State
11 Clemson
12 Oklahoma
13 Stanford
14 Nebraska
15 Texas
16 Oregon State
17 UCLA
18 USC
19 Louisville
20 Louisiana Tech
21 Michigan
22 Rutgers
23 Texas Tech
24 Oklahoma State
25 Washington

Now, let's take out some of those top teams who we know are more than likely playing in BCS bowl games whether they win their conferences or not (ND, K-State, Oregon). Also, let's take out the presumptive champs for each of the AQ conferences (for this one, I'm assuming K-State and Oregon will, in fact, win their conferences), which removes ACC (FSU), Big East (Louisville), and Big Ten (I'm betting Nebraska, but it doesn't impact the analysis here anyway). Let's also go ahead and assume that 2 SEC teams will get bids in some way shape or form and the rest of the SEC teams will be out by rule. That leaves us with a remaining pool of Sugar Bowl candidates that looks like this:

Team BCS Average
11 Clemson
12 Oklahoma
13 Stanford
15 Texas
16 Oregon State
17 UCLA
18 USC
20 Louisiana Tech
21 Michigan
22 Rutgers
23 Texas Tech
24 Oklahoma State
25 Washington

Now, let's go ahead and assume that a 10-2 Clemson, even coming off a loss to South Carolina, will get picked ahead of any 4 loss teams that somehow miraculously work their way into the top 14 by the end to be eligible. That means Washington is already out, and the following 3-loss teams are likely to pick up a 4th loss based on remaining schedule: Southern Cal (UCLA or ND), Michigan (Ohio State), Texas Tech or Oklahoma State (they play each other and OK State still gets Oklahoma). I'm going to take out both Tech and State because realistically they could both have 4 and Clemson's probably more attractive than either of them with 3 losses anyway.

Team BCS Average
11 Clemson
12 Oklahoma
13 Stanford
15 Texas
16 Oregon State
17 UCLA
20 Louisiana Tech
22 Rutgers

So now, even assuming Clemson picks up another loss, you can see that it's still very possible they'd be near #14 or so in the polls and there's only 8 contenders left for a possible at-large bid. Let's go ahead and say that Rutgers and La Tech have no chance of getting picked due to TV ratings and ticket sales (not to mention weak schedules). UCLA has 2 very hard games left (USC and Stanford) so I don't see them winning out. Oregon State has to play #2 Oregon still, which would be its 3rd loss. If they win that game, they maybe get an at-large bid. But I don't see that happening, so I'm striking them off the list too. That leaves the following at the teams I think have serious chances at the Sugar Bowl, particularly when you consider the chaff that is likely to fall off below them, meaning they could suffer a loss and still be in the top 14 teams and therefore eligible:

Team BCS Average
11 Clemson
12 Oklahoma
13 Stanford
15 Texas

Each of these teams has hard games left on their schedule. The big difference is, Clemson currently has 1 loss. Each of them have 2.
Stanford - has to play #2 Oregon and #17 UCLA. I think they lose 1 and are out.
Texas - has to play #1 K-State. I think they lose that game and are out.
Oklahoma - they have 3 games left (@ WVU, OK State, @TCU). I think they win out and finish with a 10-2 record.
Clemson - beats NC State, loses to us, finishes at 10-2.

Would the Sugar Bowl take Clemson or Oklahoma? Doesn't matter. There are enough at-large bids for both of them to be taken.

So there ya' go. That's how a 2-loss Clemson team makes the BCS and the Chik-Fil-A Bowl remains open to South Carolina.

*Note: I know I make a lot of assumptions and predictions here. A lot of things could play out. An upset conference champ screws everything up, obviously. A few upsets could also put another team ahead of Clemson for an at-large bid. The point is, the way things are looking, it is certainly possible and I believe probable that Clemson is going to the Sugar Bowl (and I HATE that).

[Coulwoodwarlord]

Originally Posted by GarnetInChicago

It's quite possible. You have to look at who is behind Clemson and what is likely to play out in the final 2 weeks of the regular season.

Here are the current BCS standings:


Now, let's take out some of those top teams who we know are more than likely playing in BCS bowl games whether they win their conferences or not (ND, K-State, Oregon). Also, let's take out the presumptive champs for each of the AQ conferences (for this one, I'm assuming K-State and Oregon will, in fact, win their conferences), which removes ACC (FSU), Big East (Louisville), and Big Ten (I'm betting Nebraska, but it doesn't impact the analysis here anyway). Let's also go ahead and assume that 2 SEC teams will get bids in some way shape or form and the rest of the SEC teams will be out by rule. That leaves us with a remaining pool of Sugar Bowl candidates that looks like this:



Now, let's go ahead and assume that a 10-2 Clemson, even coming off a loss to South Carolina, will get picked ahead of any 4 loss teams that somehow miraculously work their way into the top 14 by the end to be eligible. That means Washington is already out, and the following 3-loss teams are likely to pick up a 4th loss based on remaining schedule: Southern Cal (UCLA or ND), Michigan (Ohio State), Texas Tech or Oklahoma State (they play each other and OK State still gets Oklahoma). I'm going to take out both Tech and State because realistically they could both have 4 and Clemson's probably more attractive than either of them with 3 losses anyway.



So now, even assuming Clemson picks up another loss, you can see that it's still very possible they'd be near #14 or so in the polls and there's only 8 contenders left for a possible at-large bid. Let's go ahead and say that Rutgers and La Tech have no chance of getting picked due to TV ratings and ticket sales (not to mention weak schedules). UCLA has 2 very hard games left (USC and Stanford) so I don't see them winning out. Oregon State has to play #2 Oregon still, which would be its 3rd loss. If they win that game, they maybe get an at-large bid. But I don't see that happening, so I'm striking them off the list too. That leaves the following at the teams I think have serious chances at the Sugar Bowl, particularly when you consider the chaff that is likely to fall off below them, meaning they could suffer a loss and still be in the top 14 teams and therefore eligible:



Each of these teams has hard games left on their schedule. The big difference is, Clemson currently has 1 loss. Each of them have 2.
Stanford - has to play #2 Oregon and #17 UCLA. I think they lose 1 and are out.
Texas - has to play #1 K-State. I think they lose that game and are out.
Oklahoma - they have 3 games left (@ WVU, OK State, @TCU). I think they win out and finish with a 10-2 record.
Clemson - beats NC State, loses to us, finishes at 10-2.

Would the Sugar Bowl take Clemson or Oklahoma? Doesn't matter. There are enough at-large bids for both of them to be taken.

So there ya' go. That's how a 2-loss Clemson team makes the BCS and the Chik-Fil-A Bowl remains open to South Carolina.

*Note: I know I make a lot of assumptions and predictions here. A lot of things could play out. An upset conference champ screws everything up, obviously. A few upsets could also put another team ahead of Clemson for an at-large bid. The point is, the way things are looking, it is certainly possible and I believe probable that Clemson is going to the Sugar Bowl (and I HATE that).

Any questions ? Good ! That about covers it..............

[SwimCock]

I agree with your analysis; however, based on the annual poor showing of the EZZ in BCS games, the weak overall conference (6th or 7th overall) and their poor (lots of losses) and weak OOC schedule this year, the BCS will hopefully be reluctant to give another "gift" of an undeserving BCS slot to an EZZ team.

Furthermore, if Stanford or TX win their remaining big games, they will leapfrog Clemsux (even with an extra loss), especially after a loss to USC, since they are closely ranked, are more prestigious national "names," are fresh off of an impressive win, and have wealthy and very supportive fan bases that will travel. TX is also very close to New Orleans, but I think they could very well play against aTm in the Cotton Bowl anyway.

[GarnetInChicago]

Originally Posted by SwimCock

I agree with your analysis; however, based on the annual poor showing of the EZZ in BCS games, the weak overall conference (6th or 7th overall) and their poor (lots of losses) and weak OOC schedule this year, the BCS will hopefully be reluctant to give another "gift" of an undeserving BCS slot to an EZZ team.

Furthermore, if Stanford or TX win their remaining big games, they will leapfrog Clemsux (even with an extra loss), especially after a loss to USC, since they are closely ranked, are more prestigious national "names," are fresh off of an impressive win, and have wealthy and very supportive fan bases that will travel. TX is also very close to New Orleans, but I think they could very well play against aTm in the Cotton Bowl anyway.

I agree with you on all fronts. The ACC has done nothing to prove it deserves an at-large big (or its AQ for that matter).

I also want to say, I'm really hoping for the Chik-Fil-A. Playing on New Year's Day actually kind of sucks thanks to ESPN. Did you ever notice that there are 4 bowl games all played at Noon or 1pm on January 1 (including the Gator, Outback and Capital One). In other words, the national viewership will be grossly split. Meanwhile the CFA is the one and only prime time New Year's Eve bowl game. Plus beating Miami would be pretty fun, I think. And although they're down, beating names like Nebraska and Miami in consecutive years is good for general perception. (And there's the fact that the CFA is the 2nd highest payout for non-BCS games behind the Cap One. Interesting we've gotten those 2 payouts each of the last 2 years and could add on a third year in a row. $$$).

[I Bleed Garnet]

if La Tech rises 6 spots, wins their conference and finishes above Rutgers or UL (Big East winner) or if whoever is in the ACC championship game upsets FSU, they must go to a BCS bowl

[I Bleed Garnet]

Cotton Bowl has a higher payout than the CFA

[GarnetInChicago]

Originally Posted by I Bleed Garnet

if La Tech rises 6 spots, wins their conference and finishes above Rutgers or UL (Big East winner) or if whoever is in the ACC championship game upsets FSU, they must go to a BCS bowl

That's a VERY big "IF." The 2 remaining teams on La Tech's schedule are both 8-2 teams, so they could certainly suffer a loss. And even if they win out, putting them at #14 in the nation is a BIG stretch. They won't get ahead of any 2 loss teams already up there, which means there's a pretty firm ceiling for them to climb up to (probably around #12). Are they going to climb above a 3 loss Texas team even? I don't see it. People need to look back and remember that their A&M game got postponed at the beginning of the year. But for that, La Tech is way outside the top 25.

[GarnetInChicago]

Originally Posted by I Bleed Garnet

Cotton Bowl has a higher payout than the CFA

Yeah, I also barely overlooked the Outback:

AT&T Cotton Bowl ($7,250,000)
Capital One Bowl ($9,100,000)
Chick-fil-A Bowl ($6,900,000)
Outback Bowl ($7,000,000)


TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl ($5,450,000)

[b381l]

Chick-fil-a was one of the six bowls selected under the new rules with a 4 team playoff starting in 2014.

[uscgamecocks88]

Originally Posted by b381l

Chick-fil-a was one of the six bowls selected under the new rules with a 4 team playoff starting in 2014.

Yes, but thats not until 2015.

[Red Devil]

2014

[Red Devil]

If the orange trash does get a BCS bowl I want them to face Bama or LSU and I will love watching them get killed.

[bigdawg77]

The biggest problem for the BCS is the block of SEC teams in the middle of the rankings. With the 2 team limit if none of them lose through the end of the regular season which highly likely you're going to end up with a large chuck on the top 12 unable to go to a BCS game you could have Clemson lose and still get into one just to fill a slot.

[MikeTrainNC8]

Originally Posted by bigdawg77

The biggest problem for the BCS is the block of SEC teams in the middle of the rankings. With the 2 team limit if none of them lose through the end of the regular season which highly likely you're going to end up with a large chuck on the top 12 unable to go to a BCS game you could have Clemson lose and still get into one just to fill a slot.

If we best Clemson we would potentially become the 3rd highest sec team. Then once y'all get blown out we will be #2

Lmao what a lame sig.. Can't believe y'all are actually proud of backing into the championship again....

[U-Dub Gamecock]

Looking at those BCS standings... with the STUPID "only 2 teams from one conference can be eligible for a BCS game" rule... we can beat Clemson, and they still might get a Sugar Bowl bid...