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Old 11-18-2012, 05:35 PM   #21
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Default Re: Opening line
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Originally Posted by scargamecocks87 View Post
In the last few weeks many top three teams have been favored by 17+ some at home and still lost. Just saying
That may be.. It happens. But statistically the team favored by two TDs or more wins about 90% of the time.
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Old 11-18-2012, 05:41 PM   #22
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Default Re: Opening line
Quote:
Originally Posted by scargamecocks87 View Post
In the last few weeks many top three teams have been favored by 17+ some at home and still lost. Just saying
If you look at all games in CFB and take just the double digit favorites, about 10% of the time those teams lost, so it works out in Vegas' favor. Vegas is remarkably efficient.
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Old 11-18-2012, 06:08 PM   #23
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Default Re: Opening line
Two weeks ago the early line favored Carolina by 3 haven't checked lately.
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Old 11-18-2012, 06:10 PM   #24
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Default Re: Opening line
Well hell, if Clemson is favored, we might as well just not even play it then.
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Old 11-18-2012, 06:26 PM   #25
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Default Re: Opening line
I'd think something like CU -6 to start, and if that doesn't get the bet's rolling, they'll tighten it up. Clowney news of being questionable for this weekend may have an impact on the spread as well.
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Old 11-18-2012, 06:30 PM   #26
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Default Re: Opening line
ive seen online clemson -4
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Old 11-18-2012, 06:31 PM   #27
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Default Re: Opening line
Just came out with an opening line of Clemmons at -4
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Old 11-18-2012, 06:32 PM   #28
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Default Re: Opening line
Sounds fair.
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Old 11-18-2012, 06:42 PM   #29
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Default Re: Opening line
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Originally Posted by g_wood View Post
Just came out with an opening line of Clemmons at -4
Statistically, Clemson has a 62% chance of winning and we have a 38% chance of winning. This is based on a study that was done that look at point spreads based over MANY games and the percentages that games were won both home and away.

A 4 point home favorite wins 62% of the time.

Hard to believe how seasons progress, etc. Who would have thought a month ago that Clemson would be favored by more at home than LSU or Florida was favored against SC??
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Old 11-18-2012, 06:57 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by cofcgamecock9 View Post
Statistically, Clemson has a 62% chance of winning and we have a 38% chance of winning. This is based on a study that was done that look at point spreads based over MANY games and the percentages that games were won both home and away.

A 4 point home favorite wins 62% of the time.

Hard to believe how seasons progress, etc. Who would have thought a month ago that Clemson would be favored by more at home than LSU or Florida was favored against SC??
Lattimore.
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Old 11-18-2012, 06:59 PM   #31
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Default Re: Opening line
Quote:
Originally Posted by cofcgamecock9 View Post
Statistically, Clemson has a 62% chance of winning and we have a 38% chance of winning. This is based on a study that was done that look at point spreads based over MANY games and the percentages that games were won both home and away.

A 4 point home favorite wins 62% of the time.

Hard to believe how seasons progress, etc. Who would have thought a month ago that Clemson would be favored by more at home than LSU or Florida was favored against SC??
This is depressing
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Old 11-18-2012, 07:03 PM   #32
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Default Re: Opening line
Carolina has been a 3 to 4 point favorite or underdog in the last three games against Clemson. That was the line in 2009 and we beat them by 17. Three point favorite in 2010 and won by 22. 4 point favorite last year and won by 18.
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Old 11-18-2012, 07:06 PM   #33
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Default Re: Opening line
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Originally Posted by peterlemon View Post
Carolina has been a 3 to 4 point favorite or underdog in the last three games against Clemson. That was the line in 2009 and we beat them by 17. Three point favorite in 2010 and won by 22. 4 point favorite last year and won by 18.
This is exciting!
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Old 11-18-2012, 07:09 PM   #34
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Default Re: Opening line
How much does the line change when Morris is announced the head coach at Tennessee on Wednesday.
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Old 11-18-2012, 07:14 PM   #35
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Default Re: Opening line
Well, I called it months ago. Looks like GCG owes me the first of two sig bets she's about to lose.
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Old 11-18-2012, 07:15 PM   #36
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Default Re: Opening line
The highest line I have seen in this series since 2002 was in 2006 we were 5.5 point underdogs. Every year the line is basically 3 to 4 points one way or the other.
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Old 11-18-2012, 07:17 PM   #37
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Default Re: Opening line
Quote:
Originally Posted by peterlemon View Post
Carolina has been a 3 to 4 point favorite or underdog in the last three games against Clemson. That was the line in 2009 and we beat them by 17. Three point favorite in 2010 and won by 22. 4 point favorite last year and won by 18.
Yep, and that is why the favorite doesn't win 100% of the time and why the games are played.

I was just stating that statistically, with a large enough sample size, a 4 point favorite at home wins 62% of the time.
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Old 11-18-2012, 07:23 PM   #38
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Default Re: Opening line
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Well, I called it months ago. Looks like GCG owes me the first of two sig bets she's about to lose.

Im sure you are a man of your word.. (Note sacrasm)...
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Old 11-18-2012, 07:26 PM   #39
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Default Re: Opening line
This is just the opening line.
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Old 11-18-2012, 07:31 PM   #40
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Default Re: Opening line
Some of you really think we only have a 38% chance of winning just because of past teams games that the line was -4??? That is so stupid. What do you those other teams and games have to do with our game on Saturday? NOTHING.
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