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Old 11-21-2012, 01:39 PM   #1
Ph/JDCock
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Default USC/Clemson offense vs. defense stat comparison

My head has been telling me that Clemson has the edge this year, while my heart has been saying that we'll take the Tigers behind the woodshed for a fourth straight year. I wanted to see which was right and had a few minutes on my hands, so I put together a comparison of each team's performance offensively and defensively compared to the strengths of their opponents. The following are comparisons for each teams' D-1 opponents:

CLEMSON
Average opponent RPI: 70.4
Record v. opponents in top 60 RPI: 1-1 (FSU and Ball State)
Record v. opponents in top 10 RPI: 0-1

Opponents' average scoring defense rank: 64.6
Opponents' average scoring defense PPG: 27.06
Clemson scoring PPG: 44.64 (+17.45 over opponent average)

Opponents' average total defense rank: 66
Opponents' average total defense YPG: 396.58
Clemson total offense YPG: 535.64 (+ 139.09 over opponent average)

Opponents' average scoring offense rank: 68.1
Opponents' average scoring offense PPG: 28.02
Clemson scoring defense PPG: 24.73 (-3.29 lower than opponent average)

Opponents' average total offense rank: 70.3
Opponents' average total offense YPG: 388.62
Clemson total defense YPG: 408 (19.38 higher than opponent average)

Thus, Clemson's offense scores against anyone, at any time. The closest defense to ours that Clemson faced this year was Florida State's, which is statistically better than ours. Florida State gives up 13.1 ppg and just over 236 YPG; Clemson amassed 37 points and 426 yards in Tallahassee. Although both were well below Clemson's averages, they were greatly above FSU's.

Defensively, although the Tigers were slightly below average, their defense has actually fared better than folks have given them credit for. They hold opponents to less than their PPG averages, although they give up about 20 yards per game more than their opponents' averages.

GAMECOCKS
Average opponent RPI: 54.1
Record v. opponents in top 60 RPI: 3-2 (UGA, Vandy, LSU, Florida, Missouri)
Record v. opponents in top 10 RPI: 1-2 (all three opponents are top-5)

Opponents' average scoring defense rank: 56.1
Opponents' average scoring defense PPG: 25.47
USC scoring PPG: 31.12 (6.35 over opponent average)

Opponents' average total defense rank: 47.1
Opponents' average total defense YPG: 368.91
USC total offense YPG: 365.91 (3.0 under opponent average)

Opponents' average scoring offense rank: 66
Opponents' average scoring offense PPG: 28.25
USC scoring defense PPG: 17.45 (10.8 under opponent average)

Opponents' average total offense rank: 69.8
Opponents' average total offense YPG: 393.28
USC total defense YPG: 310.82 (82.46 ypg under opponent average)

USC's offense, although it doesn't average a lot of yards, is very efficient and scores almost a touchdown more per game against its opponents than the opponents typically surrender.

USC's defense holds opponents far under its averages in both scoring and yardage. The one wildcard is sacks and QB pressure, which none of Clemson's opponents this year have brought with the same frequency that we do, typically rushing only four.

USC has performed better relative to the strength of their opponents on both sides of the ball, but Clemson's offense has not been slowed by anyone. On one side, Clemson has not seen a pass rush like USC's all year, which could make a difference, but on the other, Tajh Boyd's weight loss and ability to run this year adds a dimension that our defenses the past two years really didn't have to respect.

The one final statistic that worries me is our road performance drops off significantly. We have scored more than 21 points on the road only once this year (38 vs. a pathetic Kentucky squad). Of course, this may have had to do with the quality of the defenses we were facing as much as anything else (Vandy, LSU and Florida are all top-20 both in scoring and total defensive rankings).

It should be a good one.
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Old 11-21-2012, 01:58 PM   #2
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Default Re: USC/Clemson offense vs. defense stat comparison

I'm reading that both of Clemson's starting CBs will miss the game....that's according to Swinney though, so take this with an entire container of Morton's salt....
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Old 11-21-2012, 02:09 PM   #3
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Default Re: USC/Clemson offense vs. defense stat comparison

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Originally Posted by Ph/JDCock View Post
The one wildcard is sacks and QB pressure, which none of Clemson's opponents this year have brought with the same frequency that we do, typically rushing only four.
I understand that FSU has a very good DL and can generate pressure similar to our DL. Is this correct? Or are we significantly superior to FSU in generating pass rush and sacks?
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Old 11-21-2012, 02:36 PM   #4
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Default Re: USC/Clemson offense vs. defense stat comparison

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Originally Posted by Cock Kool-Aid View Post
I understand that FSU has a very good DL and can generate pressure similar to our DL. Is this correct? Or are we significantly superior to FSU in generating pass rush and sacks?
Kind of hard to judge these things....USC is 8th nationally in QB sacks, while FSU is 25th.....USC is 19th nationally in TFL, while FSU is 43rd.

One generally considers the SEC to be one of the better conferences in terms of interior lines - OL and DL. I do not know how the ACC is perceived in these areas. One would think that solid to great OLs would result in solid to great rushing offenses. For comparison, the ACC have 5 of their 12 members with rushing offenses ranked 100th or worse (Duke, NCSU, WF, MD, BC) and 7 ranked 80th or worse (add UVA and Miami), while the SEC have only 1 (AR) ranked out of the top 100, and have 4 ranked out of the top 80 (add USC, UK, and Mizzou)...
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Old 11-21-2012, 02:49 PM   #5
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Default Re: USC/Clemson offense vs. defense stat comparison

So, what you're saying is our DL is better than FSU's. I feel better now.
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Old 11-21-2012, 03:10 PM   #6
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Default Re: USC/Clemson offense vs. defense stat comparison

Clemson gives up 1.82 sacks/game on average. We sack opposing teams' QBs an average of 3.09/game.

Our four opponents closest to Clemson in terms of sacks allowed were as follows (number in parentheses indicates the number we got on them):

Arkansas: 1.64 (4)
UGA: 1.91 (2)
Vandy: 1.91 (7)
Kentucky: 2.00 (8)

This number doesn't tell the whole story, because we altered a lot of passes that didn't result in a sack (Aaron Murray is probably still having nightmares). Clemson is a different breed of cat, though, and they're playing with a lot of confidence and getting rid of the ball pretty quickly. I think they might be able to nickel and dime us to death with an occasional long pass when we're leaning in, but if they consistently try to throw downfield, Boyd may get roughed up.

Last edited by Ph/JDCock; 11-21-2012 at 03:53 PM.
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Old 11-21-2012, 03:52 PM   #7
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Default Re: USC/Clemson offense vs. defense stat comparison

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ph/JDCock View Post
My head has been telling me that Clemson has the edge this year, while my heart has been saying that we'll take the Tigers behind the woodshed for a fourth straight year. I wanted to see which was right and had a few minutes on my hands, so I put together a comparison of each team's performance offensively and defensively compared to the strengths of their opponents. The following are comparisons for each teams' D-1 opponents:

CLEMSON
Average opponent RPI: 70.4
Record v. opponents in top 60 RPI: 1-1 (FSU and Ball State)
Record v. opponents in top 10 RPI: 0-1

Opponents' average scoring defense rank: 64.6
Opponents' average scoring defense PPG: 27.06
Clemson scoring PPG: 44.64 (+17.45 over opponent average)

Opponents' average total defense rank: 66
Opponents' average total defense YPG: 396.58
Clemson total offense YPG: 535.64 (+ 139.09 over opponent average)

Opponents' average scoring offense rank: 68.1
Opponents' average scoring offense PPG: 28.02
Clemson scoring defense PPG: 24.73 (-3.29 lower than opponent average)

Opponents' average total offense rank: 70.3
Opponents' average total offense YPG: 388.62
Clemson total defense YPG: 408 (19.38 higher than opponent average)

Thus, Clemson's offense scores against anyone, at any time. The closest defense to ours that Clemson faced this year was Florida State's, which is statistically better than ours. Florida State gives up 13.1 ppg and just over 236 YPG; Clemson amassed 37 points and 426 yards in Tallahassee. Although both were well below Clemson's averages, they were greatly above FSU's.

Defensively, although the Tigers were slightly below average, their defense has actually fared better than folks have given them credit for. They hold opponents to less than their PPG averages, although they give up about 20 yards per game more than their opponents' averages.

GAMECOCKS
Average opponent RPI: 54.1
Record v. opponents in top 60 RPI: 3-2 (UGA, Vandy, LSU, Florida, Missouri)
Record v. opponents in top 10 RPI: 1-2 (all three opponents are top-5)

Opponents' average scoring defense rank: 56.1
Opponents' average scoring defense PPG: 25.47
USC scoring PPG: 31.12 (6.35 over opponent average)

Opponents' average total defense rank: 47.1
Opponents' average total defense YPG: 368.91
USC total offense YPG: 365.91 (3.0 under opponent average)

Opponents' average scoring offense rank: 66
Opponents' average scoring offense PPG: 28.25
USC scoring defense PPG: 17.45 (10.8 under opponent average)

Opponents' average total offense rank: 69.8
Opponents' average total offense YPG: 393.28
USC total defense YPG: 310.82 (82.46 ypg under opponent average)

USC's offense, although it doesn't average a lot of yards, is very efficient and scores almost a touchdown more per game against its opponents than the opponents typically surrender.

USC's defense holds opponents far under its averages in both scoring and yardage. The one wildcard is sacks and QB pressure, which none of Clemson's opponents this year have brought with the same frequency that we do, typically rushing only four.

USC has performed better relative to the strength of their opponents on both sides of the ball, but Clemson's offense has not been slowed by anyone. On one side, Clemson has not seen a pass rush like USC's all year, which could make a difference, but on the other, Tajh Boyd's weight loss and ability to run this year adds a dimension that our defenses the past two years really didn't have to respect.

The one final statistic that worries me is our road performance drops off significantly. We have scored more than 21 points on the road only once this year (38 vs. a pathetic Kentucky squad). Of course, this may have had to do with the quality of the defenses we were facing as much as anything else (Vandy, LSU and Florida are all top-20 both in scoring and total defensive rankings).

It should be a good one.
Wanted to compare weaknesses vs strengths.

Carolina has averaged 31 points per game, Clemson has averaged 44.
31 vs 44 is a mitigated difference when you consider Carolina faced cosiderably tougher defenses in the SEC.
This is a draw in my opinion even when you consider the times that Carolina's Defense scored some of those points or set up the offense. At any rate that last only strengthens the argument that Carolina will either perform the same on offense or be set up to perform the same by their defense.


Carolina's D has given up 17 per game, Clemson has given up 24.

The difference here is enhanced further in Carolina's advantage given that Clemson has given up the higher total to lesser defenses.
The D line is the main reason Carolina has done what they have done over the last few years and this looks to be a re-run again this year.

In short, Clemsons weaknesses play into Carolina's advantage but the reverse isnt true.

Wanted to also add intangibles. Clemson is feeling ALL of the pressure having lost the last 3. It hasn't been close the last thee years and it hasn't mattered where the game was played.
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Old 11-21-2012, 04:16 PM   #8
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Default Re: USC/Clemson offense vs. defense stat comparison

Good breakdown.

Right now the stats say Clemson wins this one.

Good thing stats don't win games.

Especially being on the road, and with Connor's struggles of late, I'm not overly optimistic about this one.

HOWEVER, our team (and maybe more importantly our COACH) will be motivated for this one, so that helps us considerably.
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Old 11-21-2012, 04:31 PM   #9
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Default Re: USC/Clemson offense vs. defense stat comparison

Our defense WILL get stops that other defenses Clemson has played (including FlaSt) could not get. Im not worried about that. We need to take full advantage of their Crap D. If we have to punt the ball more than 3 times... we lose
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Old 11-21-2012, 08:08 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Acockolypse Now View Post
Good breakdown.

Right now the stats say Clemson wins this one.

Good thing stats don't win games.

Especially being on the road, and with Connor's struggles of late, I'm not overly optimistic about this one.

HOWEVER, our team (and maybe more importantly our COACH) will be motivated for this one, so that helps us considerably.
I actually felt better about the game once I looked at the stats. I think Clemson's offense, although very good, gets a bit too much credit based on the competition. they face.
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Old 11-21-2012, 08:13 PM   #11
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Default Re: USC/Clemson offense vs. defense stat comparison

stats shmats... the team wins
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Old 11-21-2012, 08:20 PM   #12
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Default Re: USC/Clemson offense vs. defense stat comparison

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I understand that FSU has a very good DL and can generate pressure similar to our DL. Is this correct? Or are we significantly superior to FSU in generating pass rush and sacks?
Try taking a look at this- it's pretty fun!
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