Perspective on our class so far

[EveryThingGreen]

More perspective:


http://www.postandcourier.com/articl...-many-failures

An analysis of Rivals.com’s top 100 players from 2006 to 2009 reveals that 42 percent of the nation’s top prospects became busts, meaning they failed to either play in 40 games, start 20 games or have one above-average season in their college careers.

More than 1 million boys play high school football each fall. The chance of one of them being ranked as a Rivals.com top 100 prospect as a senior is 0.0004 percent. Yet, 42 percent of the best of the top one percentile still fail.

In contrast, only 14 percent of those 100 prospects have been, or are projected to be, first- or second-round picks in the NFL draft.

[scfanohio]

Originally Posted by EveryThingGreen

More perspective:


http://www.postandcourier.com/articl...-many-failures

Great find. That is amazing. Points.

[ConwayGamecock]

Originally Posted by EveryThingGreen

More perspective:


http://www.postandcourier.com/articl...-many-failures

so according to that article, the online "experts" rating what they considered to be the elite prospects for that time period were only slightly better than 50-50? I wonder how much subscription money those sites took from members in that same time-frame to be not much better than a pedestrian observer?

[Mt. Lattimore]

Yall might enjoy this article....

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoot...rankings-right

Beyond the vagaries, the hype and the busts, the annual recruiting rankings still represent the most reliable system at our disposal for making initial assumptions about teams and players alike. Taken as a whole, the numbers actually do work -- as long as you're willing to use all of the numbers.

[HeadCockFan]

Some things to consider with that article, ETG:

1) 5 star talent usually goes to programs where they have to compete with other 5 star talent. Their metrics do not take into account these differences in how hard it is to get playing time, in their measure of "failure." It is more likely to be stuck as a second string runningback if your team gets 5 star guys in every year.

2) What are the %'s of failure for 4-stars? They aren't comparing two sets of data. So how am I supposed to evaluate what 42% failure means?

[trapper82]

Originally Posted by ConwayGamecock

so according to that article, the online "experts" rating what they considered to be the elite prospects for that time period were only slightly better than 50-50? I wonder how much subscription money those sites took from members in that same time-frame to be not much better than a pedestrian observer?

Well, technically it would be a 42-58%, which could be a big difference depending on the business. There is some inherit risk in projecting how a 17-18 year old will develop anyway, not to mention the fact that they are going from high school to college which some average students can't handle, but also from being the man to the bottom of the totem pole.

[trapper82]

For those in the know...have we ever brought in this large a class of Offensive Linemen with this much of a rating? If so, who were they, how did the team perform with them?

[HeadCockFan]

Originally Posted by Mt. Lattimore

Yall might enjoy this article....

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoot...rankings-right

Much better article.

[Acockolypse Now]

I'm surprised that the P&C article didn't really mention character as a defining issue. Spurrier will tell you that one of the struggles he had here was getting the bad character guys out of here.

It's amazing what a few bad seeds can do to a locker room.

[EveryThingGreen]

Originally Posted by trapper82

For those in the know...have we ever brought in this large a class of Offensive Linemen with this much of a rating? If so, who were they, how did the team perform with them?

Spurrier had a very highly rated OL class in 2006.

The results from it were very bad.

Pierre Andrews (2*) - Don't believe he ever played
Ryan Broadhead (2*) - career backup
Seaver Brown (3*) - mostly a backup
Heath Batchelor (3*) - left school, personal problems
Clarence Bailey (4*) - never enrolled
Hutch Eckerson (4*) - Played his last 2 seasons.
Kevin Young (4*) - Shoulder injuries, never played.
Garrett Anderson (4*) - 3 year starter? Could have used a RS year but played out of necessity.

[STEPHONGILMOREFAN!]

Recruiting visits miss on so many prospects. Thats why I watch film instead of lookin at ratings

[Acockolypse Now]

Originally Posted by trapper82

For those in the know...have we ever brought in this large a class of Offensive Linemen with this much of a rating? If so, who were they, how did the team perform with them?

Yes, recently in fact.

In 2006 we brought in:

Garret Anderson: 4 stars
Clarence Bailey: 4 stars
Hutch Eckerson: 4 stars
Kevin Young: 4 stars
Heath Bachelor: 3 stars
Seaver Brown: 3 stars
Pierre Andrews: 2 stars
Ryan Broadhead: 2 stars

I forget where it was ranked, but I think it was rated the number one or two OL class of the year that year.

...but, recruiting being what it is, Terrence Campbell, a DE, became the best OL out of the group.


******** edit, I see that EverythingGreen beat me to it... **************

[trapper82]

Originally Posted by EveryThingGreen

Spurrier had a very highly rated OL class in 2006.

The results from it were very bad.

Pierre Andrews (2*) - Don't believe he ever played
Ryan Broadhead (2*) - career backup
Seaver Brown (3*) - mostly a backup
Heath Batchelor (3*) - left school, personal problems
Clarence Bailey (4*) - never enrolled
Hutch Eckerson (4*) - Played his last 2 seasons.
Kevin Young (4*) - Shoulder injuries, never played.
Garrett Anderson (4*) - 3 year starter? Could have used a RS year but played out of necessity.

Was Hunt still the OL coach then?

[elcid99]

Originally Posted by trapper82

Was Hunt still the OL coach then?

Glad those days are long gone.

[GamecockInHell]

I don't think its as much about just getting 5 star players. If you get five 5-star guys at wide receiver and you get a 2-star QB and O-line what good are they? But in the case of Bama when you get 5-star guys two and three deep at every position its hard to lose. The key is to get a lot of 4 and 3 star guys with potential and high character and coach them up. You probably won't win a national championship every year, but you might just get lucky. And its also been proven that you can get a team thats rated in the top five every year and still not win a national championship even WITH a lot of luck.

[scfanohio]

For perspective, it seems the best class usually means the top ranked finish in the season. After that, though, there's not a lot of similarity....


USA Today Final Poll 2012

1 Alabama
2 Oregon
3 Notre Dame
4 Georgia
5 Texas A&M
6 Stanford
7 South Carolina
8 Florida State
9 Clemson
10 Florida

If you take the Rivals Average Class Recruiting Rankings 2008-2012, Alabama has a 1.8 (four 1st place finishes and one 5th).

Alabama 1.8
Oregon 17.8
Notre Dame 13.4
Georgia 9.0
Texas A&M 19.4
Stanford 24.6
South Carolina 19.0
FSU 6.8
Clemson 18.0
UF 6.0

More teams that have average class grades 13-24 in the top ten than those in single digits.

Lots of top recruiting finishes for Auburn, Oklahoma, and USC during this time period, yet not in top ten.

[LegalCock]

Yeah a four star defensive lineman should count twice as much as a wideout.

[Mick Chicken]

I am very happy with this class. If we close with Walton and Moore...and don't get any "bad" surprises from current commits then this is a solid haul

[Acockolypse Now]

I actually think this is better than a solid haul. I think it's an outstanding class, given what was in-state this year.

Solid from top to bottom with great depth.

I lament the fact that we missed out on Williams, and I'd love to have one more OL in the class, but other than that home run. Especially if we sign Moore tomorrow.

[ReadR00ster]

My one big, and really only regret for this class, is that we didn't really do anything to make up for losing Langley.