The Official 2014 "How Many Can We Take?" Thread

[DJCatfish]

Count me among the confused today when discussing how many people we could sign next year. I've done some research into it, so I thought I'd post my findings if anyone else cared.

A lot of the restrictions on signing players get confused/conflated. There are several limitations on who you can have on a football team. Sometimes the effects overlap, other times not.

1) Total players on roster: This is different from scholarships (number 2 below). Title IX requires equal male and female participation. Meaning that while there is no hard limit imposed by the NCAA, the school almost certainly imposes one to be in compliance with Title IX. Effect: you can theoretically have unlimited walk ons, but as a practical matter, no AD is going to let that fly.

2) 85 Scholarship players: You can have 85 players on a football scholarship per academic year. A player is sometimes called a "counter" meaning they count against the limit (also called an initial counter the first year they are on aid). Unlike some other sports, all football scholarships must be full scholarships. Effect: You need some NFL players/attrition, or you can't bring in 25 a year (restriction 3) every year.

3) 25 initial counters per year: Rule 15.5.1.10.1 states that "In bowl subdivision football, there shall be an annual limit of 25 on the number of prospective student-athletes who may sign a National Letter of Intent or an institutional offer of financial aid from December 1 through May 31." There is an exception, however, in Rule 15.5.1.10.1.1 -- "A prospective
student-athlete who signs a National Letter of Intent or an institutional offer of financial aid and becomes an initial counter for the same academic year in which the signing occurred (e.g., midyear enrollee) shall not count toward the annual limit on signings." What this means is that a midyear enrollee (what we call an EE) won't go against the 25 annual limit, provided you can start counting them in the year they sign -- which means, you had to have room to count them in last year's class. Note the strictness of this rule has changed substantially in recent years in response to the controversial practice of oversigning (not taking a stance on oversigning either way; just saying it is undoubtedly controversial). Result: You can't sign willy nilly on national signing day anymore, and it's gotten even more strict in the past two years. As an aside, note this rule only applies to a set time frame (Dec 1 through May 31, when high school players enroll/sign). I assume that is why Spurrier (or any coach) can give out "leftover" scholarships before the fall to deserving players, even if that means more than 25 were given out that year (for example, if we only had 84 scholarship guys on roster, he can give a scholarship to the guy who wins the kicker job without it messing with the limits -- not that this particular idea worked out for us last year).


Now, how does this play with our sanctions. From our public infractions report (available here: http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/...+public+report) page 15 - 16:

"3) The number of initial athletically related financial aid awards in football that are countable under Bylaw 15.02.3 shall be reduced by three from the maximum allowed (25) during both the 2013-14 and 2014-15 academic years. This limits the institution to 22 initial grants those two years under current rules. (Institution imposed).

4) The number of total athletically related financial aid awards in football shall be reduced by three from the maximum allowed (85) during both the 2013-14 and 2014-15 academic years. This limits the institution to 82 total scholarships those two years under current rules. (The institution suggested that it have the discretion to reduce some initial and total grants-in-aid during the 2012-13 academic year depending upon the number of prospects signing letters of intent during the February 2012 signing period. The committee ruled that the initial and total grant reductions must all be taken in 2013-14 and 2014-15 and in equal number those two years.)"

I skipped penalties 1 & 2, as well as 5 - 15 because they aren't really relevant to this discussion.

So, what this means for us is two-fold: First, we have 82 scholarships for our roster both next season and the season after that. Meaning that if NFL departures and attrition aren't reasonably high, this cap will be more troublesome than the initial scholly cap. Bottom line: I understand the numbers tend to work out, and next year's class is pretty spectacular on paper -- so expect to see some transfers.

Second, we can have 22 initial scholarships this year (not to be confused with an LOI -- there is a subtle distinction in that you can sign an LOI and never be a counter because you never make it to campus) and next year (but don't forget the count-back exception). This year we had three EEs -- I'm not sure how many we could count back since we only ended up bringing in 23 in 2012 (and I'm not sure if we were able to count any back last year). Assuming no count backs AND Vickers doesn't qualify, then you are looking at a maximum class next year of 23, one of which must be an EE that can be counted back to this class. This is, of course, assuming our coaches decide to "make room" so to speak for the max size class.

[Evilchicken2]

The numbers always work out.

[EveryThingGreen]

next years class numbers is pointless to debate right now. We all will be able to get a better idea after spring as we may have more kids leave the program.

Right now, all anyone is doing is guessing on how many kids leave the program.

[BornCocky'86]

^
Ditto.
Most believe it'll be between 10-15 schollys available next cycle

Seven sr's + a few jrs go pro. That's ten.

[MWard]

The numbers always work out, but this unofficial breakdown might help.

http://southcarolina.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=646864

Next year:
6 Sr's (Clifford, Latt, Gresham and Sanders won't be on the team
18 Jr's (except Wilds will count as a RS Soph, but all are on the 2 Deep)
21 Soph's (Harris is gone)
15 RS FR
21 Incoming FR (many will RS, some will not)

Meaning we will be at 81, if nobody leaves or is kicked off before fall camp.

How many we sign is really up to the numbers of graduations and early outs we will have, but you could speculate:
the 6 Sr's,
Anderson, Quarles, Clowney, and Hampton (they have the best shot, I'm not saying the'll leave though.) could be for Early NFL bids.

So that's 10, which means we can sign 11 IF there aren't any people who move on for whatever other reason. I expect us to go for something close to 15-20 though and some players to not make the cut.

[Acockolypse Now]

Originally Posted by Evilchicken2

The numbers always work out.

Did it for me.

Thanks.

[DJCatfish]

Originally Posted by EveryThingGreen

next years class numbers is pointless to debate right now. We all will be able to get a better idea after spring as we may have more kids leave the program.

Right now, all anyone is doing is guessing on how many kids leave the program.

Agreed -- debating the exact number of next year's class wasn't my point at all. I was confused about how the rules/sanctions worked exactly and noticed a lot of other people seemed to have conflicting answers. I figured I'd save other people the time of looking it up themselves if they were curious what the rules were.

[ConwayGamecock]

Good info....thanks!

[ReadR00ster]

Send a few more guys than expected to the NFL early that is the best way to get the numbers to work out.

[b381l]

Next will be an odd year because there are so few seniors. In a normal year, that number is 15-20.

[GamecockInPA]

I'll bet a three-piece spicy white-meat dinner at Bojangles that we bring in 20+ next year. This year's talent is too good for the staff not to figure out how to make it happen.

(that's a big bet for an SC boy living in PA. I never get to eat Bo!)

[Smashies_AC30]

This is a great piece of info. Citations straight from the most authoritative source: the rules themselves. Great research.

Points.

[psychosc]

Originally Posted by GamecockInPA

I'll bet a three-piece spicy white-meat dinner at Bojangles that we bring in 20+ next year. This year's talent is too good for the staff not to figure out how to make it happen.

(that's a big bet for an SC boy living in PA. I never get to eat Bo!)

I'll take that bet and raise you a bo-berry biscuit.......LOL.



.

[FanofCarolina1]

Quality over Quantity, that's the goal for the next few.

[LegalCock]

If we didn't sign a fullish class it would be the first time I can recall. Can anyone recall the last time we didn't sign 20+? It would not however, be the first time I can recall posters discussing numbers issues ad nauseum...

[wildwes]

I believe we will sign at least 20 for 2014 class. Here is projected position breakout:
1 qb
1 fb
1 rb
3 wr
2 te
3 ol
2 dt
2 de
1 lb
2 cb
2 s
20 total

Here is projection on how 20 spots become available over the next 18 months:
2 under 82 total
4 seniors
3 leave early
4 grades
6 transfer due to no playing time/injury
1 trouble with law
20 total

The numbers always work out!

[Roosterboy]

Originally Posted by MWard

The numbers always work out, but this unofficial breakdown might help.

http://southcarolina.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=646864

Next year:
6 Sr's (Clifford, Latt, Gresham and Sanders won't be on the team
18 Jr's (except Wilds will count as a RS Soph, but all are on the 2 Deep)
21 Soph's (Harris is gone)
15 RS FR
21 Incoming FR (many will RS, some will not)

Meaning we will be at 81, if nobody leaves or is kicked off before fall camp.

How many we sign is really up to the numbers of graduations and early outs we will have, but you could speculate:
the 6 Sr's,
Anderson, Quarles, Clowney, and Hampton (they have the best shot, I'm not saying the'll leave though.) could be for Early NFL bids.

So that's 10, which means we can sign 11 IF there aren't any people who move on for whatever other reason. I expect us to go for something close to 15-20 though and some players to not make the cut.

Also think we will see some players transfer out after next season.
Some guys I kinda have on the early radar are KJ Brent, Mike Matulis, Cody Gibson, Will Sport, Phillip Dukes (if he doesn't crack two-deep this year, he will probably leave).
And with amount of young DBs we will have, it wouldn't surprise me if one left for PT.

But as they say....numbers will always work out.

Remember, I believe Kendal Vickers will count back to the 2013 class.

[ReadR00ster]

Originally Posted by Roosterboy

Also think we will see some players transfer out after next season.
Some guys I kinda have on the early radar are KJ Brent, Mike Matulis, Cody Gibson, Will Sport, Phillip Dukes (if he doesn't crack two-deep this year, he will probably leave).
And with amount of young DBs we will have, it wouldn't surprise me if one left for PT.

But as they say....numbers will always work out.

Remember, I believe Kendal Vickers will count back to the 2013 class.

I don't see Matulis going anywhere.

[STEPHONGILMOREFAN!]

I say we take 35

[gotrice?]

As long as we don't miss on a good bit of prospects we probably bring in 18-20.