Perspective on our class so far

[b381l]

Originally Posted by gamecockguy

Saban is 1-3 all-time against Spurrier

That is all

Worthless comparison at this point.

[SpecOps Cock]

With the way the coaches have developed talent , I am not worried a bit about the class.

[LegalCock]

Can I just throw my sack on the table here and call Dylan Thompson a future top 15 draft pick at QB? I'm not sure how that changes your perspective on all things recruiting, but it's kind of a big deal to me.

[sporkgod50]

Originally Posted by USCMM

I wanted to use these stats from the CBS article to figure out how likely of a chance we will have an all-american in this class. I know it is meaningless in the end, but I'm just having some fun.

Odds of Becoming an All-American, by Recruiting Ranking
5–Star: 1 in 4.
Top 100: 1 in 6.
4–Star: 1 in 16.
3–Star: 1 in 56.
2–Star: 1 in 127.

Using Rivals:
5–Star: 0
Top 100: 0
4-Stars: 8/16 = 50% chance one of these guys will become an All-American
3-Stars: 13/56 = 23% chance one of these guys will become an All-American
2-Stars: 0

Whole Class: The chance one of these guys will become an All-American is 13/56 + 28/56 = 41/56 = 73% chance.

Basically, this means we have a really good chance of having 1 future All-American out of this recruiting class.

I'm going to make a list for some other teams just to compare.

that is fun, but unfortunately probabilities don't work that way. say you flip a coin, 50% its heads, right? but if you flip it twice, there is not a 100% chance it comes up heads at least one of those two times. Instead, you could get HH, TH, HT, or TT. aka you have a 75% of at least one heads in two flips.

I'll spare you the rest of the statistic lession because I know this was just in fun, and recruiting probabilities are not nearly as percise as coin ones. Anyway for your 4 star recruit calculation instead of a 50% chance, the number is a hair over 40% (40.3281%). The other calculations are similar overestimates.

That being said, it was a fun idea. points.

[CockLurker]

http://xkcd.com/552/

[EveryThingGreen]

They had the best OL in CFB in 2012. No one in the entire country matched that OL.

The Vols had a great OL as well but Bama was that much better in run/pass blocking.

[sporkgod50]

Originally Posted by CockLurker

http://xkcd.com/552/

ha.

[b381l]

Originally Posted by LegalCock

Can I just throw my sack on the table here and call Dylan Thompson a future top 15 draft pick at QB? I'm not sure how that changes your perspective on all things recruiting, but it's kind of a big deal to me.

I like DT's game, but he's only started 3 games, top 15 is a stretch at this point.

[ReadR00ster]

Originally Posted by USCMM

Ok, I did the math on all the SEC teams + Clemson.


Bama: 279% chance of having an All-American = 2-3 All-Americans out of this class.

Florida: 210% = 2 All-Americans

LSU: 191% = 2 All-Americans

Ole Miss: 154% = 1-2 All-Americans

Georgia: 134% = 1 All-American

Texas A&M: 132% = 1 All-American

Auburn: 128% = 1 All-American

Clemson: 104% = 1 All-American

South Carolina: 73% = 0-1 All-American

Tennessee: 69% = 0-1 All-American

Vanderbilt: 68% = 0-1 All-American

Miss. State: 68% = 0-1 All-American

Arkansas: 54% = 0-1 All-American

Kentucky: 51% = 0-1 All-American

Missouri: 39% = 0 All-Americans

---

On a side note: If Larenz Bryant stayed in the top 100 we would have moved from 73% to 84%

Hey Goldenrod!

[OldPat]

Originally Posted by Acockolypse Now

This guy.

What do I do with this guy?

I know. Two 11 win seasons and they're coming out of the woodwork. And it's only early Feb.

Tell you what. I'll get us a straight jacket or four if you'll pick up a roll of duct tape. Wanna start with this guy and Corey?

Guess we all gotta work harder now that we're winning.

And next time I go to the Farmer's Market, I'll pick up a few bushel baskets for the worst cases. LOL.

[OldPat]

Originally Posted by LegalCock

Can I just throw my sack on the table here and call Dylan Thompson a future top 15 draft pick at QB? I'm not sure how that changes your perspective on all things recruiting, but it's kind of a big deal to me.

LOL, you wuss. You think that table is gonna give way and save your jewels when I swing that cleaver? Better guess again. That ole cleaver in the right hands will definitely change your perspective....Or is it the anticipation you like? Got an extra straight jacket if you need it. LOL.

[zambam]

Originally Posted by USCMM

I wanted to use these stats from the CBS article to figure out how likely of a chance we will have an all-american in this class. I know it is meaningless in the end, but I'm just having some fun.

Odds of Becoming an All-American, by Recruiting Ranking
5–Star: 1 in 4.
Top 100: 1 in 6.
4–Star: 1 in 16.
3–Star: 1 in 56.
2–Star: 1 in 127.

Using Rivals:
5–Star: 0
Top 100: 0
4-Stars: 8/16 = 50% chance one of these guys will become an All-American
3-Stars: 13/56 = 23% chance one of these guys will become an All-American
2-Stars: 0

Whole Class: The chance one of these guys will become an All-American is 13/56 + 28/56 = 41/56 = 73% chance.

Basically, this means we have a really good chance of having 1 future All-American out of this recruiting class.

I'm going to make a list for some other teams just to compare.

I'm guessing USCMM doesn't stand for USC Math Major

It's been a long time since I took statistics but I'm pretty sure that if there is a 50% chance of one thing happening and a 23% chance of another thing happening, there is not a 73% chance of it happening.

[sporkgod50]

Originally Posted by zambam

I'm guessing USCMM doesn't stand for USC Math Major

It's been a long time since I took statistics but I'm pretty sure that if there is a 50% chance of one thing happening and a 23% chance of another thing happening, there is not a 73% chance of it happening.

Yeah, I mentioned the math problems earlier. Vegas would've gone belly up two days after it began if probabilities were additive, but he was just having fun so props to him. Fun is fun even if math isn't.

[MikeTrainNC8]

Haha compete math fail

[USCNowAndForever]

Originally Posted by OldPat

I know. Two 11 win seasons and they're coming out of the woodwork. And it's only early Feb.

Tell you what. I'll get us a straight jacket or four if you'll pick up a roll of duct tape. Wanna start with this guy and Corey?

Guess we all gotta work harder now that we're winning.

And next time I go to the Farmer's Market, I'll pick up a few bushel baskets for the worst cases. LOL.

How about you actually address what I said instead of resorting to ad-hominem attacks?

Same goes for everyone else on this site who does that. If you don't like what I have to say, post a detailed explanation of why you disagree with what I have to say.

Otherwise, you just look like a jack@$$ when you post stuff along the lines of "I don't like what you have to say, therefore you are annoying".

I have no problem with this class. I think it is a great class when considering it in a vacuum. But the problem is that the schools that are winning championships have 4-5 star talent while we continue to hand 2-3 games to our opponent every season because of poor execution (offense is too complicated and inferior talent, especially offensive line talent), and poor decision making and clock management.

If I am not mistaken, with each class we keep having less 2 and 3 star players and more 4 star players. That is progress.

That said, what I had a problem with was saying we are winning with 3 star talent, and saying that recruiting rankings don't really matter. That's sour grapes. It also sounds really ignorant when you consider that Alabama has won 5 out of the last 6 Rivals Recruiting National Championships. Unless of course those recruiting national championships had nothing to do with their last 3 BCS national titles...Sure we are winning with 3 star, but it is only going to take us so far with mediocre coaching. Even if we get 5 star talent here, we are probably still going to hand 1-2 games to our opponents every season because Spurrier's offense is too complicated, leading to receivers running into each other, players running the wrong routes, etc, and Spurrier's notorious clock management incompetence.

Also, Spurrier will probably still cost 1-2 games every few seasons with knucklehead decisions like the one he made in 2010 at the end of the Kentucky game.



If you are going to go for the win at the end, call the right play, and throw to your best receiver.

[ReadR00ster]

Originally Posted by USCNowAndForever

How about you actually address what I said instead of resorting to ad-hominem attacks?

Same goes for everyone else on this site who does that. If you don't like what I have to say, post a detailed explanation of why you disagree with what I have to say.

Otherwise, you just look like a jack@$$ when you post stuff along the lines of "I don't like what you have to say, therefore you are annoying".

I have no problem with this class. I think it is a great class when considering it in a vacuum. But the problem is that the schools that are winning championships have 4-5 star talent while we continue to hand 2-3 games to our opponent every season because of poor execution (offense is too complicated and inferior talent, especially offensive line talent), and poor decision making and clock management.

If I am not mistaken, with each class we keep having less 2 and 3 star players and more 4 star players. That is progress.

That said, what I had a problem with was saying we are winning with 3 star talent, and saying that recruiting rankings don't really matter. That's sour grapes. It also sounds really ignorant when you consider that Alabama has won 5 out of the last 6 Rivals Recruiting National Championships. Unless of course those recruiting national championships had nothing to do with their last 3 BCS national titles...Sure we are winning with 3 star, but it is only going to take us so far with mediocre coaching. Even if we get 5 star talent here, we are probably still going to hand 1-2 games to our opponents every season because Spurrier's offense is too complicated, leading to receivers running into each other, players running the wrong routes, etc, and Spurrier's notorious clock management incompetence.

Also, Spurrier will probably still cost 1-2 games every few seasons with knucklehead decisions like the one he made in 2010 at the end of the Kentucky game.



If you are going to go for the win at the end, call the right play, and throw to your best receiver.

I don't remember anyone is saying that Alabama isn't recruiting better players than we are, but they have proven it by going out and actually wining the national championships, not because of what Rivals has to say about it. And you are just looking out at Alabama, Georgia has been recruiting the heck out of us according to "the services" yet we've been owning them. Also, beat and finished ahead of Florida for the last two years? Why aren't they competing for the NC championship more than us? They have a "top five" class every year. Just stop being jealous of Alabama. And you want to stop hating on Spurrier if you wan to last on Cockytalk. You know it's funny how those bad decisions seem to disappear or be dramatically reduced post-Garcia. And how we could have gone for a field goal against Michigan and it worked out.

[trapper82]

Are people actually equating Nick Saban going to Alabama with Steve Spurrier coming here? Totally different challenges and opportunities, but when their job first came open there were a good deal of Bama fans that wanted Spurrier as their coach. Comparing their head to head record certainly isn't a full picture, but if the challenge is who is a better gameday coach that is certainly an interesting stat.

[gocockswyn]

I would love to see the past 6 years of class ranking and then see where the teams actually ended up ranking 3 years after that. How do I find this information? I believe we look a whole lot better than some teams in these terms. It does seem like all Alabama has to say to a recruit is- we want you on the team and they jump.

[b381l]

Originally Posted by USCNowAndForever

How about you actually address what I said instead of resorting to ad-hominem attacks?

Same goes for everyone else on this site who does that. If you don't like what I have to say, post a detailed explanation of why you disagree with what I have to say.

Otherwise, you just look like a jack@$$ when you post stuff along the lines of "I don't like what you have to say, therefore you are annoying".

I have no problem with this class. I think it is a great class when considering it in a vacuum. But the problem is that the schools that are winning championships have 4-5 star talent while we continue to hand 2-3 games to our opponent every season because of poor execution (offense is too complicated and inferior talent, especially offensive line talent), and poor decision making and clock management.

If I am not mistaken, with each class we keep having less 2 and 3 star players and more 4 star players. That is progress.

That said, what I had a problem with was saying we are winning with 3 star talent, and saying that recruiting rankings don't really matter. That's sour grapes. It also sounds really ignorant when you consider that Alabama has won 5 out of the last 6 Rivals Recruiting National Championships. Unless of course those recruiting national championships had nothing to do with their last 3 BCS national titles...Sure we are winning with 3 star, but it is only going to take us so far with mediocre coaching. Even if we get 5 star talent here, we are probably still going to hand 1-2 games to our opponents every season because Spurrier's offense is too complicated, leading to receivers running into each other, players running the wrong routes, etc, and Spurrier's notorious clock management incompetence.

Also, Spurrier will probably still cost 1-2 games every few seasons with knucklehead decisions like the one he made in 2010 at the end of the Kentucky game.



If you are going to go for the win at the end, call the right play, and throw to your best receiver.

Are 5* recruits better than the rest, usually they are but not always. You do understand there are approximately only 30 each year out of thousands of high schools players and it is very difficult to get them to come to our school. Even if we are fortunate enough to get 1 or even 2 each year, there's still over 32-35 players that get significant snaps each game....1 or 2 players can't totally change a game.....we could have every 5* recruit on the OL and DL, and they can't do anything about fumbling or interceptions. The second biggest problem is all schools have limited resources, both financial and coaches time. Does it make sense flying our coaches all over the country trying to recruit kids....because when you do that, you use money and even more importantly, you are using your coaches valuable time recruiting a 5* kids that already have over 50 offers. Spurrier's recruiting plan works fine. Try to get the majority of good players in the state of SC, which is difficult enough because of the small population of the state and that number can go up and down each year. Then try to get the best players he can from the surrounding states where he and our other coaches have good contacts.....GA, Fla, and NC.....and a few in other states. That plan gets us a top 15-20 class each year. I just don't see how anyone can rationally argue with this. Are we ever going to win a SEC or even a NC, who know's...but as long as we keep bringing in talented players, we'll keep knocking on the door and sooner or later, that door will open. But for some of you to just expect us to be able to recruit mostly 4-5* players like Alabama is just unrealistic. Saban is no better coach than Spurrier, but he has Alabama's history on his side......same thing for Miles.

As far as execution, you can't expect these 18-21 year old kids to play perfectly every game. So if that's where your bar is, then you will always be disappointed. They will always make mistakes. Even the NFL players make lots of mistakes. This point is not even logical. Maybe you need to stop playing your video games and start living in the real world.

[CoverTwo]

I'm not getting into the star debate but I have a simple question for the ones that think this class is average.

Who do you not like in this class? Which prospects are you not really feeling good about and why?