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Old 01-05-2014, 03:59 PM   #1
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Default If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

In light of a recent series of post made in the "If We Played an FCS team" thread, I decided to make it's own thread instead of hijack that one.

If the playoff were to be this year, who would be in it? The consensus on this board seems to realize that Strength of Schedule is going to be a big factor. This is because this is something the board has harped on.

Quote:
Strength of schedule will become such an important factor that if you want to be under consideration, you need to have a more meaningful schedule than perhaps you've had in previous years.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/...ength-schedule
The AP top 15 looks like this, and the following number is there strenght of schedule. (ex. Rank-School w/ Record-Strength of Schedule Rank)

(For those curious, I used http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm to find every teams SoS)

1. Florida State 13-0 (63)
2. Auburn 12-1 (20)
3. Alabama 11-1 (46)
4. Michigan State 12-1 (56)
5. Stanford 11-2 (4)
6. Baylor 11-1 (61)
7. Ohio State 12-1 (57)
8. South Carolina 10-2 (30)
9. Missouri 11-2 (31)
10. Oregon 10-2 (28)
11. Oklahoma 10-2 (44)
12. Clemson 10-2 (53)
13. Oklahoma State 10-2 (39)
14. Louisiana State 9-3 (27)
15. Central Florida 11-1 (91)
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:05 PM   #2
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaGnB521 View Post
In light of a recent series of post made in the "If We Played an FCS team" thread, I decided to make it's own thread instead of hijack that one.

If the playoff were to be this year, who would be in it? The consensus on this board seems to realize that Strength of Schedule is going to be a big factor. This is because this is something the board has harped on.



The AP top 15 looks like this, and the following number is there strenght of schedule. (ex. Rank-School w/ Record-Strength of Schedule Rank)

(For those curious, I used http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm to find every teams SoS)

1. Florida State 13-0 (63)
2. Auburn 12-1 (20)
3. Alabama 11-1 (46)
4. Michigan State 12-1 (56)
5. Stanford 11-2 (4)
6. Baylor 11-1 (61)
7. Ohio State 12-1 (57)
8. South Carolina 10-2 (30)
9. Missouri 11-2 (31)
10. Oregon 10-2 (28)
11. Oklahoma 10-2 (44)
12. Clemson 10-2 (53)
13. Oklahoma State 10-2 (39)
14. Louisiana State 9-3 (27)
15. Central Florida 11-1 (91)
Based on W-L records and sos, I think it would probably be FSU, UA, Stanford, and AU. It's kind of a toss up between Stanford and MSU for me, but that sos for Stanford is both surprising and impressive. This, of course, is me trying to remove the knowledge of what happened to Alabama and Stanford in their bowl games.
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:14 PM   #3
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kingoftheroost View Post
Based on W-L records and sos, I think it would probably be FSU, UA, Stanford, and AU. It's kind of a toss up between Stanford and MSU for me, but that sos for Stanford is both surprising and impressive. This, of course, is me trying to remove the knowledge of what happened to Alabama and Stanford in their bowl games.
Before I post this unpopular opinion, I will say I think Florida State is VERY VERY deserving to play in the National Championship. However, with that said - if SoS is going to mean a lot to this committee how do you justify keeping a school with it's SoS outside the top 60!

For example. How many people would honestly select South Florida to go to the National Championship if they were 12-0, would any of you say that you think they should go to the playoff? Most of you wouldn't give them the chance.

Why'd I select South Florida? Because their SoS is 64!
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:17 PM   #4
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaGnB521 View Post
Before I post this unpopular opinion, I will say I think Florida State is VERY VERY deserving to play in the National Championship. However, with that said - if SoS is going to mean a lot to this committee how do you justify keeping a school with it's SoS outside the top 60!

For example. How many people would honestly select South Florida to go to the National Championship if they were 12-0, would any of you say that you think they should go to the playoff? Most of you wouldn't give them the chance.

Why'd I select South Florida? Because their SoS is 64!
I think thats the point, and I am glad we are going to a playoff system. Teams that don't normally have success, deserve a shot when they do have it.
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:24 PM   #5
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clowneygotcha View Post
I think thats the point, and I am glad we are going to a playoff system. Teams that don't normally have success, deserve a shot when they do have it.
I thought the point of the play-off, and having SoS matter, was so that teams can't schedule schools of the deaf-and-blind and waltz their way to a National Championship.

For example (again): Louisiville. Had they taken care of UCF they would've been ranked likely in the top 10 - with an outside chance at playing for the National Championship this season with a SoS outside of 100!

When the committee selects their teams they should hide the school name, and simply look at the record, and SoS.
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:28 PM   #6
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaGnB521 View Post
I thought the point of the play-off, and having SoS matter, was so that teams can't schedule schools of the deaf-and-blind and waltz their way to a National Championship.

For example (again): Louisiville. Had they taken care of UCF they would've been ranked likely in the top 10 - with an outside chance at playing for the National Championship this season with a SoS outside of 100!

When the committee selects their teams they should hide the school name, and simply look at the record, and SoS.
Ok I will admit it I am lost at the use of SoS lol I thought it just stood for Spurrier. What are you guys talking about when you refer to it like that?
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:37 PM   #7
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clowneygotcha View Post
Ok I will admit it I am lost at the use of SoS lol I thought it just stood for Spurrier. What are you guys talking about when you refer to it like that?
Strength of Schedule.

It's a complicated mathematical process that includes a lot of factors (home wins, home losses, road wins, road losses, record vs opponets with winning records, record vs opponents with losing record, etc. etc.)
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:42 PM   #8
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaGnB521 View Post
Strength of Schedule.

It's a complicated mathematical process that includes a lot of factors (home wins, home losses, road wins, road losses, record vs opponets with winning records, record vs opponents with losing record, etc. etc.)
ahh ok.. thanks man
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:47 PM   #9
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clowneygotcha View Post
ahh ok.. thanks man
In the end of things, it just shows you a ranking of who had the toughest schedule. Washington State had the toughest schedule this year.

At Auburn
At USC
Southern Utah
Idaho
Stanford
At Cal
Oregon State
At Oregon
Arizona State
At Arizona
Utah
(Neural field) Washington
Colorado State
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:47 PM   #10
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaGnB521 View Post
Before I post this unpopular opinion, I will say I think Florida State is VERY VERY deserving to play in the National Championship. However, with that said - if SoS is going to mean a lot to this committee how do you justify keeping a school with it's SoS outside the top 60!

For example. How many people would honestly select South Florida to go to the National Championship if they were 12-0, would any of you say that you think they should go to the playoff? Most of you wouldn't give them the chance.

Why'd I select South Florida? Because their SoS is 64!
But in this particular case, FSU is the ONLY team who is undefeated. Yes, they feasted on teams that were the equivalent of high school teams all year, but they are still the ONLY undefeated team. There were plenty of other ACC teams who played the ridiculously easy schedules who didn't go undefeated.
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:50 PM   #11
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

Also, sos can't be determined until after the season, so what if a team has a schedule that's technically the toughest before the start of the season based on LAST year's results and then all of their opponents bomb during the year?

This is only one school, but look at UF this year. At the beginning of the year that was considered a strong opponent, but now it looks like they were a joke.
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Old 01-05-2014, 05:03 PM   #12
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kingoftheroost View Post
Also, sos can't be determined until after the season, so what if a team has a schedule that's technically the toughest before the start of the season based on LAST year's results and then all of their opponents bomb during the year?

This is only one school, but look at UF this year. At the beginning of the year that was considered a strong opponent, but now it looks like they were a joke.
Sagarin updates weekly. All SoS rankings in the post above are up-to-date (not including bowl opponents).
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Old 01-05-2014, 05:12 PM   #13
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaGnB521 View Post
Sagarin updates weekly. All SoS rankings in the post above are up-to-date (not including bowl opponents).
That doesn't change my point. What if a school intentionally sets up their schedule so that they could have the toughest in the nation, then what would they go by? They could only go by what teams did the previous year. But when the season gets under way that team runs through their games with extreme ease and it turns out all of their opponents end up having losing records (like 4-8) for whatever reasons, then the team that thought they were setting up the toughest schedule will be punished because they weren't psychic.
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Old 01-05-2014, 05:14 PM   #14
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

FSU Auburn Bama Mich State.

Although I could see Stanford replace Bama
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Old 01-05-2014, 05:21 PM   #15
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

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Originally Posted by kingoftheroost View Post
That doesn't change my point. What if a school intentionally sets up their schedule so that they could have the toughest in the nation, then what would they go by? They could only go by what teams did the previous year. But when the season gets under way that team runs through their games with extreme ease and it turns out all of their opponents end up having losing records (like 4-8) for whatever reasons, then the team that thought they were setting up the toughest schedule will be punished because they weren't psychic.
Oh, I see now.

I don't know. That's the problem with a playoff only having 4 teams. Thought teams complained about the BCS, and not making it to the BCS games. At least with the BCS you knew if you were eligible to make it.

Now it's 4 teams, selected by a committee, and it's up to their discretion if you are going to make it or not. The complaints might triple...
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Old 01-05-2014, 05:23 PM   #16
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

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Originally Posted by kingoftheroost View Post
That doesn't change my point. What if a school intentionally sets up their schedule so that they could have the toughest in the nation, then what would they go by? They could only go by what teams did the previous year. But when the season gets under way that team runs through their games with extreme ease and it turns out all of their opponents end up having losing records (like 4-8) for whatever reasons, then the team that thought they were setting up the toughest schedule will be punished because they weren't psychic.
Well seeing how schedules are usually set up years in advance, I doubt that is possible or even happens.
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Old 01-05-2014, 05:24 PM   #17
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

My question would be how many SEC teams they would allow in the Playoffs? If the answer is one there may be some problems...
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Old 01-05-2014, 05:28 PM   #18
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

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Well seeing how schedule are usually set up years in advance, I doubt that is possible or even happens.
I realize that. I was simply trying to point out there could be a scenario in which a team seems to have a really tough season before the games start and ends up having a cakewalk when all is said and done.

Think of it like this: Spurrier made a remark about Ole Miss last year their head coach took exception to. When asked about it at media days prior to this season, Spurrier said something to the effect of, "When I said that, Ole Miss was 2-10." What he's saying is he couldn't have known they were going to get so much better. Now, what I'm saying is the reverse could be true, and that's why I used the example of UF.
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Old 01-05-2014, 05:30 PM   #19
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

We wouldn't be in the final 4 but we would have played in one of the 4 "other BS" bowls.
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Old 01-05-2014, 05:35 PM   #20
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Default Re: If the Playoff were this year, who would be in it?

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My question would be how many SEC teams they would allow in the Playoffs? If the answer is one there may be some problems...
If appropriate, it could be 4. In 2011, it probably would've been Arkansas, LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma State.

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We wouldn't be in the final 4 but we would have played in one of the 4 "other BS" bowls.
True, thank god that the Final Four playoff isn't this year. Do you realize the kind of post that would be made on this board if a loss at Tennessee cost us a chance at being in the playoff? Even had we won this year I think the BCS still would've taken AU and UA.
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