Connor Shaw by the numbers

[sporkgod50]

I realized today how much I miss college football. (while watching the Georgia Southern vs ODU game, a game I would have never turned on a month ago.)

And the bowl season isn't starting quick enough for me, well at least with any match ups I care about. At the begining of the season there was an espn article ( http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/i...ecs-sleeper-qb
) that sparked some discussion about whether Shaw was improving as the 2011 season went on or whether he was just more comfortable on at home instead of on the road. Anyway, I decided that with the lack of college football today was the perfect time to crunch some numbers and see what I could gleen from the 2012 stats. Here are his home/away splits for 2011 and 2012:

-------------------------------------------------------------
Home vs Away (2011)
Overall
123/188 (65.4%) 1448 yds 14 tds, 6 ints
Rushing 525 on 135 carries 8tds

Home

77/117 (65.8%) 1078 yds 12 tds, 2 ints
rushing 409 yds on 89 carries 5 tds

Away/Neutral

46/71 (64.8%) 370 yds, 2 tds, 4 ints
rushing 116 yds on 46 carries 3 tds

Home vs Away (2012)

Overall
136/202 (67.3%) 1732 yds 15 tds, 7 ints
Rushing 339 on 121 carries 3tds

Home

86/119 (72.3%) 1268 yds 11 tds, 4 ints
rushing 174 yds on 67 carries 3 tds

Away/Neutral

50/83 (60.2%) 464yds, 4 tds, 3 ints
rushing 165 yds on 54 carries 0tds
---------------------------------------------------------------

The biggest thing that jumps out at me when I look at this is the TD:INT ratio. Way worse on the road both years. Most of those road games are road SEC games and the SEC is one hell of rough place to play on the road, so maybe that explains it. And this year we played some highly ranked teams on the road so maybe that explains it. Have a look at Ranked vs Unranked splits between 2011 and 2012:

------------------------------------------------------------------

2011 Ranked vs Unranked teams
Overall
123/188 (65.4%) 1448 yds 14 tds, 6 ints
Rushing 525 on 135 carries 8tds


Ranked
41/62 (66.1%) 568 yds 5 tds, 1 ints
rushing 173 yds on 52 carries 4 tds

Unranked

82/126 (65.1%) 880yds, 9 tds, 5 ints
rushing 352 yds on 83 carries 4 tds

2012 Ranked vs Unranked teams
Overall
136/202 (67.3%) 1732 yds 15 tds, 7 ints
Rushing 339 on 121 carries 3tds
Ranked
34/64 (53.1%) 411 yds 4 tds, 2 ints
rushing 75 yds on 35 carries 1 tds

Unranked

102/138 (73.9%) 1321 yds, 11 tds, 5 ints
rushing 264 yds on 86 carries 2 tds
------------------------------------------------------------------

Now you can look at tons of different things, but those are pretty similar TD:INT ratios in 2012 (roughly 2:1) against ranked or unranked opponents and in 2011 Connor Shaw's numbers look worse against unranked teams. But both years, there is a pretty dramatic drop when you compare the ratios between home and away. In 2011, the ratio at home was 6:1 and on the road was 0.5:1. Now he improved on the road in 2012 but the difference between the ratios is still there. In 2012, at home 2.75:1 while on the road 1.333:1.

(I have excel graphs to illustrate the point but I do not know how to add them to this post.)

I want to be clear that I am not trying to talk smack about connor or take a side in the CS vs DT debate. I just wanted to see if Connor's numbers on the road had improved in 2012.

Short answer: He improved some, but there is still a big difference in his numbers that cannot be explained (at least statically) by whether the team was ranked or not.

-I am excited to see what people think about these numbers and for anyone that knows how to tell me how to add an excel graph to a post (I have it in JPG and xlsx formats)

One last stat: TD:INT ratio against top 5 teams at home in 2012 2:0 on the road 2:2.

[HeadCockFan]

Every QB plays better on the road. Nice summary though. 9.2 for effort.

[ZenUSC]

Man! Now you went and blew my mind!

I think Conner did ok.

[sporkgod50]

Originally Posted by HeadCockFan

Every QB plays better on the road. Nice summary though. 9.2 for effort.

That is a great point and actually the next question that I wanted to address. Got any ideas who would be a good comparison?

[SpecOps Cock]

Originally Posted by ZenUSC

Man! Now you went and blew my mind!

I think Conner did ok.

Who is Conner?

[talon]

road games this year were more difficult

[DiamondGamecock]

Originally Posted by talon

road games this year were more difficult

I agree, they were difficult. But he still had that run first tendency we tried to break Garcia of for years. Next year we will get to see how good Connor really is, and how well he can develop. I believe he can get better, and that he will. Just needs to work hard as hell, because there is this Mitch guy coming in that runs the system SOS is accustomed to, and if Connor Shaw doesn't keep on moving, he is going to be passed.

[talon]

no doubt that he got some happy feet
wish he got to play at clemson to give him more experience on the road
in order to take the next step as a program we need to get better on the road against good teams

[DiamondGamecock]

Originally Posted by talon

no doubt that he got some happy feet
wish he got to play at clemson to give him more experience on the road
in order to take the next step as a program we need to get better on the road against good teams

Yup, and he started off great. He just ended on a note that he took off running more than passing. Except that 300 yard game he had. We have backs that can run, just need to block for them. I believe Connor can run, but he needs to tone it down because defenses are keying in on that, and know he wants to run first.

He is going to have to get better at passing, because the guy coming in, well he can pass. Havent had that in a while.

[Cocklover]

This is great news...hope he gets a lot of playing time...would be a sweet way to end a tough year for him

[b381l]

I think a lot of Connor's completions were short passes. He really hasn't thrown many mid-range passes to WR. I think our offense this year ranks
like 80th, and I doubt it was much better last year. Our WR yards have really fallen off the last couple of years.

[uscsandstorm85]

Originally Posted by SpecOps Cock

Who is Conner?

Here we go again.

[Gyle41386]

Here are all of the defenses Connor has faced over the last two seasons, ranked in order by their pass efficiency rating. Underneath, they are sorted by year with each team's national ranking in parentheses.

2012 Florida - 91.59 - Away
2012 Vanderbilt - 99.77 - Away
2012 LSU - 103.43 - Away
2011 Vanderbilt - 110.76 - Home
2011 Arkansas - 113.21 - Away
2011 Mississippi State - 117.70 - Away
2011 Florida - 117.75 - Home
2011 Kentucky - 117.89 - Home
2012 Georgia - 119.68 - Home
2011 Nebraska - 120.43 - Neutral
2011 Tennessee - 125.58 - Away
2011 East Carolina - 129.96 - Neutral
2011 Clemson - 133.50 - Home
2012 Missouri - 137.93 - Home
2012 Tennessee - 138.70 - Home
2012 Kentucky - 146.56 - Away
2012 Arkansas - 147.30 - Home
2012 UAB - 151.48 - Home


2011
East Carolina - 129.96 (#61)
Vanderbilt - 110.76 (#9)
Kentucky - 117.89 (#29)
@Mississippi State - 117.70 (#27)
@Tennessee - 125.58 (#48)
@Arkansas - 113.21 (#17)
Florida - 117.75 (#28)
The Citadel - NA
Clemson - 133.50 (#74)
Nebraska - 120.43 (34)

2012
@Vanderbilt - 99.77 (#5)
UAB - 151.48 (#113)
Missouri - 137.93 (#84)
@Kentucky - 146.56 (#102)
Georgia - 119.68 (#32)
@LSU - 103.43 (#9)
@Florida - 91.59 (#1)
Tennessee - 138.70 (#86)
Arkansas - 147.30 (#104)
Wofford - NA

[MillerTime843]

Originally Posted by ZenUSC

Man! Now you went and blew my mind!

I think Conner did ok.

Connor!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SpecOps Cock]

Originally Posted by uscsandstorm85

Here we go again.

Wasnt trying to be that guy, but i guess i did. Just the proper spelling is in the thread name.

[FanofCarolina1]

He also played injured this season too.

[trapper82]

Yep. Injured in first game and played anyway.

[CarolinaSpur12]

As much as Dylan ran and threw against Clemson, Connor would have loved to have that game to pad some stats. He'd rushed for 100+ for 2 scores. And passed for 250+ with 2 scores. No doubt in my mind.

[gamecock88]

Please find a way to get those charts in, maybe even a webex with some power point and this will be just like work. Thanks for the efforts though.

[JQ94]

Ill be that guy, DT for starter! No questions about it.