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Old 01-10-2019, 02:12 PM   #21
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by MrWongburger73 View Post
All rankings in this discussion were derived from the end of season AP polls.
Mizzou is not in the AP poll.
http://www.espn.com/college-football...8/seasontype/3
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Old 01-10-2019, 02:15 PM   #22
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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The end of season polls are conducted pre bowl games, not the ďFinal RankingĒ which is what youíre linking there. Sorry for any confusion.
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Old 01-10-2019, 02:18 PM   #23
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

I get the point you're trying to make and I agree with it, but I think it's also a stretch to start comparing two different programs with different histories in different conference at different times just because we're rivals and in close proximity. And I also think there's an issue with always comparing ourselves and potential avenues to success with Clemson. Their road was different, methods may have been different, and frankly their margin of error wider.


Here's where I'm at. We are at a different place clearly than Clemson or UGA or Bama. Stop worrying about them. It sucks and I hate them, but if you're going to measure success over the next 3 season by comparing to them, you'll be banging your head against a wall. I just heard at lunch ESPN debating which Trevor Lawrence will get--2 Heismans or 3 National titles. That's their debate and we're trying to figure out how to beat UK.


Take Clemson out of the equation, we're doing pretty alright. I wanted that UF and TAMU win really f###ing bad, but other than that, the season turned out as we expected. The bowl game sucked, but doesn't effect the trajectory.


We've got talent across the board coming in, we're developing talent that's already here, and a coach who's clearly not satisfied to miss an opportunity to improve the staff. We've got two coordinators who could be HC in the next few years. We've got a line coach who's amazing. We've got one of the highest rated QBs coming in to backup a QB who's a potential NFL draft pick. We're trending up and that's all we can hope for year after year.
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Old 01-10-2019, 02:38 PM   #24
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Another major flaw here is counting Dabo’s interim year as his first year. Not his staff, so I don’t count that for him. Not all his players either. In much the same way, I don’t count Champ’s first year here. That recruiting class was largely assembled by the time he arrived so he had negligible input for that class.

If you start with Dabo’s first full season and Champ’s second season (which I really consider his first) then the record are remarkably similar (9-4/9-5 and 7-6/6-7). Dead even actually. However, you’re only comparing 2 seasons. Not sure that constitutes a trajectory.

Also, Dabo has won double-digit games every season since his 3rd full season. Anyone think we’re on pace for 10 wins next season?
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Old 01-10-2019, 02:46 PM   #25
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Nice try, but conviently leaving out his time at Florida. Which does matter. If Muschamp had been the wrs coach who got the interim job ala Dabo when spurrier quit mid season this post would carry more weight. Fact of the matter is Muschamp is great recruiter, good defensive coach, but so far in his career a mediocre head coach. The only outlier in his head coaching career is that 11-3 season. He’s averaging 7 wins for his career, unless he develops a great amount of luck then he’s more than likely going to be stuck at 7 wins for the foreseeable future. A lot of people forget but when he got hired at Carolina everyone kept raving about how he has the same amount t of wins as Saban thru 4 years, how did that comparison work out???
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Old 01-10-2019, 02:50 PM   #26
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by CockNJersey View Post
Another major flaw here is counting Dabo’s interim year as his first year. Not his staff, so I don’t count that for him. Not all his players either. In much the same way, I don’t count Champ’s first year here. That recruiting class was largely assembled by the time he arrived so he had negligible input for that class.

If you start with Dabo’s first full season and Champ’s second season (which I really consider his first) then the record are remarkably similar (9-4/9-5 and 7-6/6-7). Dead even actually. However, you’re only comparing 2 seasons. Not sure that constitutes a trajectory.

Also, Dabo has won double-digit games every season since his 3rd full season. Anyone think we’re on pace for 10 wins next season?
Dabo was heavily involved in recruiting, that’s the whole reason Bowden brought him on in the first place. Dabo also retained Billy Napier as OC, moved Jeff Scott from WRs to TEs, kept Brad Scott as AHC/OL, Chris Rumph as DE, and Andre Powell as RB, so he kept nearly as much of that staff as he let go. You can choose to not count the wins that year if you want, but to say it wasn’t his players when he was heavily involved in recruiting and was an offensive coach himself or his staff when he retained over half of them isn’t accurate. Again, you can not count Muschamp’s first year either, but he still had to coach the on field product and that is indicative of his ability to coach on game day and instruct during the week.

With regard to your 10 win comment, I’m beginning to think you may not have read the whole post. In it, I note that in 2012, the first 11 win season for Dabo, the average win count of opponents they beat was 5.7. This year, the average win count of teams we beat was 5.5. Simply put, Dabo won 11 games because they played a lot more 5ish win teams than we did this year. We would have won 10-11 games with Clemson’s 2012 schedule, and they probably would have won 7-8 in 2012 if they had our schedule this year. So as a function of who they beat, one of the few objective measures you can make to see where teams compare, we were similar to Dabo’s 2012 11 win squad this year regardless of how many we win next year. In terms of trajectory, your last point is not particularly relevant.
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Old 01-10-2019, 02:57 PM   #27
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by BiscoCocky View Post
Nice try, but conviently leaving out his time at Florida. Which does matter. If Muschamp had been the wrs coach who got the interim job ala Dabo when spurrier quit mid season this post would carry more weight. Fact of the matter is Muschamp is great recruiter, good defensive coach, but so far in his career a mediocre head coach. The only outlier in his head coaching career is that 11-3 season. Heís averaging 7 wins for his career, unless he develops a great amount of luck then heís more than likely going to be stuck at 7 wins for the foreseeable future. A lot of people forget but when he got hired at Carolina everyone kept raving about how he has the same amount t of wins as Saban thru 4 years, how did that comparison work out???
I left out his time at Florida because if you include it, heís the far better coach through the first 3 years. I also left it out because it isnít particularly relevant to this comparison. Itís about the combination of coaching staff and state of this program, not just his record alone. Having 7 years at 2 different programs, both of which required a rebuild, is not the same as having 7 years at one program, and surely you can see that. I mean yes, youíre right, if literally every possible circumstance was the exact same itíd be a more direct comparison, but if my grandmother had wheels sheíd be a wagon. Things donít have to be literally identical to compare them. Your point about being stuck at 7 wins is complete nonsense. This means that coaches never have a chance to improve beyond their first 3 years, a point that was the driving force behind the OP. The whole point was that Dabo was given time and pulled it off, and thereís no reason to expect that Muschamp canít do the same. Coaches need more than 3 years at a program to flourish, unless the program is a legend or the coach is once in a lifetime, neither of which we will have or get.
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Old 01-10-2019, 03:01 PM   #28
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Can we get the same ACC schedule to help prove out this trajectory?

no? ok then...
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Old 01-10-2019, 03:01 PM   #29
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by MrWongburger73 View Post
Dabo was heavily involved in recruiting, thatís the whole reason Bowden brought him on in the first place. Dabo also retained Billy Napier as OC, moved Jeff Scott from WRs to TEs, kept Brad Scott as AHC/OL, Chris Rumph as DE, and Andre Powell as RB, so he kept nearly as much of that staff as he let go. You can choose to not count the wins that year if you want, but to say it wasnít his players when he was heavily involved in recruiting and was an offensive coach himself or his staff when he retained over half of them isnít accurate. Again, you can not count Muschampís first year either, but he still had to coach the on field product and that is indicative of his ability to coach on game day and instruct during the week.

With regard to your 10 win comment, Iím beginning to think you may not have read the whole post. In it, I note that in 2012, the first 11 win season for Dabo, the average win count of opponents they beat was 5.7. This year, the average win count of teams we beat was 5.5. Simply put, Dabo won 11 games because they played a lot more 5ish win teams than we did this year. We would have won 10-11 games with Clemsonís 2012 schedule, and they probably would have won 7-8 in 2012 if they had our schedule this year. So as a function of who they beat, one of the few objective measures you can make to see where teams compare, we were similar to Daboía 2012 11 win squad this year regardless of how many we win next year. In terms of trajectory, your last point is not particularly relevant.
Thereís not much I can say regarding speculation about how our current team would have fared with someone elseís schedule 6 or 7 seasons ago. We had one decent win this season. I know that much.

In 2011, Daboís first double digit win season (10-4), they had 3 wins over teams ranked in the final top 25 (VaTech twice and FSU). If the trajectory theory is true, thatís the bar for us next season.
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Old 01-10-2019, 03:03 PM   #30
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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There’s not much I can say regarding speculation about how our current team would have fared with someone else’s schedule 6 or 7 seasons ago. We had one decent win this season. I know that much.

In 2011, Dabo’s first double digit win season (10-4), they had 3 wins over teams ranked in the final top 25 (VaTech twice and FSU). If the trajectory theory is true, that’s the bar for us next season.
I can somewhat agree with that. I'd bump it to 2 personally, since there isn't a great likelihood we get to play an overinflated team twice like they did owing to making it to the ACC championship, but that's fine. We were some defensive depth away from doing that this year with Florida, so that doesn't seem like an unrealistic expectation to me. 2011 also featured the most humiliating bowl loss of all time at that point for Dabo so that's worth noting as well. Clemson had 2 decent wins in 2010, one by one point.

The rest of this is just numbers. If you can't agree with the premise that it's valid to evaluate a team based on the quality of opponents it beat, then there's no point to ever comparing anything at all in football, and certainly no point to ranking teams.
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Old 01-10-2019, 03:23 PM   #31
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Nice try, but conviently leaving out his time at Florida. Which does matter. If Muschamp had been the wrs coach who got the interim job ala Dabo when spurrier quit mid season this post would carry more weight. Fact of the matter is Muschamp is great recruiter, good defensive coach, but so far in his career a mediocre head coach. The only outlier in his head coaching career is that 11-3 season. Heís averaging 7 wins for his career, unless he develops a great amount of luck then heís more than likely going to be stuck at 7 wins for the foreseeable future. A lot of people forget but when he got hired at Carolina everyone kept raving about how he has the same amount t of wins as Saban thru 4 years, how did that comparison work out???
Boom also has a nine win season at South Carolina and had a winning record in his other two years at UF, so it is not just the one 11-3 season at UF. The outlier is actually the 4-8 season at UF, where the team was totally decimated by injuries.

He also should have asterisks after his first season at South Carolina, when he took a 3-9 team and led them to a bowl and a 6-7 record, and after this year, where injuries decimated the team again and cost us 1-3 wins. If he was coming off an 8-10 win season, the perspective would be very different.

It is impossible to predict 2019 with certainty, but common sense says that the Offensive issues are mostly gone now and we just need to avoid the injury bug on Defense to be much better. We were #25 in defense in 2017, fell to #68 last year due to the late injury-impacted season collapse. If we get back close to #25, double digit wins should be expected.
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Old 01-10-2019, 03:41 PM   #32
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Muschamp, though infuriating at times, has done an amazing job here and will continue to do so.

Sure, we do some questionable shit on the field sometimes, but all one has to do is look at that game the other day to see that Saban's calls aren't always perfect.

And look at that team up in Pickens against Syracuse...or hell, against us...to know that those aren't either.

Simply put: there's no one else out there to bring in as HC and Muschamp is putting his all into it. No one can deny his dedication.

Believe it or not, things ARE looking up here, in spite of monumental challenges. It's not like we're hemorrhaging commits or we have a slew of legal issues or there's animosity among the coaching staff.

There's no cancers like those eating the inside of our team. We're simply against a shitload of adversity. We're the scrappy underdogs.

Or at least that's how I'm pulling through all the Clemsux bullshit these days thinking of us.

/sunshine pump
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Old 01-10-2019, 03:43 PM   #33
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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I left out his time at Florida because if you include it, heís the far better coach through the first 3 years. I also left it out because it isnít particularly relevant to this comparison. Itís about the combination of coaching staff and state of this program, not just his record alone. Having 7 years at 2 different programs, both of which required a rebuild, is not the same as having 7 years at one program, and surely you can see that. I mean yes, youíre right, if literally every possible circumstance was the exact same itíd be a more direct comparison, but if my grandmother had wheels sheíd be a wagon. Things donít have to be literally identical to compare them. Your point about being stuck at 7 wins is complete nonsense. This means that coaches never have a chance to improve beyond their first 3 years, a point that was the driving force behind the OP. The whole point was that Dabo was given time and pulled it off, and thereís no reason to expect that Muschamp canít do the same. Coaches need more than 3 years at a program to flourish, unless the program is a legend or the coach is once in a lifetime, neither of which we will have or get.

Actually if u include UF or include his time at UF and Carolina... Dabo is the better coach. Champ was 22-17 Dabo was 25-16. I get your point about about the campairson not being identical. I donít think youíre getting my point which is we need to stop w the comparisons all together ( hence why I mentioned the Saban comparison everyone used to justify the hire. Dabo for the all the hate we give him has proven to be one of the top two coaches in college football. And quite frankly Muschamp has had 7 years at two different sec programs and all heís proven is that heís a middle of the road coach and great recruiter. So if you actually believe right now Muschamp is on the same trajectory and our program is on same path as Clemson hats off to you! As for 7 wins right now that his average total here and at UF. Good to know you think his average win total is nonsense and should be thrown at because his first 3 years at Carolina are close to Dabos first three at Clemson.
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Old 01-10-2019, 03:50 PM   #34
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Great post burger. No doubt in my mind that Champ will get through the end of year 5 to show improvement. Tanner isn't going to punt on this next season, against THAT schedule. If in year 5 he shows improvement, he'll get more time. If in year 6 the team goes backwards, I imagine it will be time to pull the plug. Champ is here for 3 more seasons unless he chooses to leave. He deserves at least that much given what he has to work with and compete with.
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Old 01-10-2019, 03:54 PM   #35
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Boom also has a nine win season at South Carolina and had a winning record in his other two years at UF, so it is not just the one 11-3 season at UF. The outlier is actually the 4-8 season at UF, where the team was totally decimated by injuries.

He also should have asterisks after his first season at South Carolina, when he took a 3-9 team and led them to a bowl and a 6-7 record, and after this year, where injuries decimated the team again and cost us 1-3 wins. If he was coming off an 8-10 win season, the perspective would be very different.

It is impossible to predict 2019 with certainty, but common sense says that the Offensive issues are mostly gone now and we just need to avoid the injury bug on Defense to be much better. We were #25 in defense in 2017, fell to #68 last year due to the late injury-impacted season collapse. If we get back close to #25, double digit wins should be expected.
Injuries happen to every team in college football. That excuse is actually quite tiring. You also forgot the old stand by of blaming him for not having a solid qb even tho 2 of his qb recruits from his days at UF are on nfl rosters. Iíll take this time to point out he has one win over a ranked opponents while at Carolina. That 9 win season had a lot to do w schedule, and hate to break it but schedule is pretty daunting next year. Hopefully Iím wrong but right now I donít see anything definitively that makes me think weíll be better than 7 wins a season going forward. Everyone can feel free to make comparisons to other coaches or excuses for Muschamp but right now weíre coming off an ass kicking from an acc team ( yeah the conference thatís a joke and why Dabo is so good, not because Clemson is a better team is all a conference thing!) and losing ground ever min to a surging Tennessee and Florida team on the recruiting trail. Just my two cents tho, hopefully Iím dead wrong.
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Old 01-10-2019, 03:56 PM   #36
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Actually if u include UF or include his time at UF and Carolina... Dabo is the better coach. Champ was 22-17 Dabo was 25-16. I get your point about about the campairson not being identical. I don’t think you’re getting my point which is we need to stop w the comparisons all together ( hence why I mentioned the Saban comparison everyone used to justify the hire. Dabo for the all the hate we give him has proven to be one of the top two coaches in college football. And quite frankly Muschamp has had 7 years at two different sec programs and all he’s proven is that he’s a middle of the road coach and great recruiter. So if you actually believe right now Muschamp is on the same trajectory and our program is on same path as Clemson hats off to you! As for 7 wins right now that his average total here and at UF. Good to know you think his average win total is nonsense and should be thrown at because his first 3 years at Carolina are close to Dabos first three at Clemson.
Muschamp took his program to a BCS game, Dabo didn't come close to that in his first 3 years while the win totals were very close. I'm not saying that his average win total CURRENTLY is nonsense, I'm saying it's nonsense to assume that he can't possibly outperform his current average given enough time, since that's precisely what Dabo did, and what plenty of coaches do when they're given time to complete a rebuild. We also know that Muschamp, under good enough circumstances, is capable of winning 11 games in a season. Maryland just hired a head coach whose best season as a head coach was 1-11. If you're capable of winning that many games, and you're building a program the right way, there's no reason not to put your chips in and expect he can get there again.
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Old 01-10-2019, 03:58 PM   #37
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Injuries happen to every team in college football. That excuse is actually quite tiring. You also forgot the old stand by of blaming him for not having a solid qb even tho 2 of his qb recruits from his days at UF are on nfl rosters. I’ll take this time to point out he has one win over a ranked opponents while at Carolina. That 9 win season had a lot to do w schedule, and hate to break it but schedule is pretty daunting next year. Hopefully I’m wrong but right now I don’t see anything definitively that makes me think we’ll be better than 7 wins a season going forward. Everyone can feel free to make comparisons to other coaches or excuses for Muschamp but right now we’re coming off an ass kicking from an acc team ( yeah the conference that’s a joke and why Dabo is so good, not because Clemson is a better team is all a conference thing!) and losing ground ever min to a surging Tennessee and Florida team on the recruiting trail. Just my two cents tho, hopefully I’m dead wrong.
I heard this same quote about UT and UF when Butch Jones and Jim McElwain were hired and that didn't turn out to be too accurate. Precisely because of what my post points out - neither of these teams stick with a coach long enough to build a program and then wonder why they get a 4 win season every 3 years like clockwork.
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Old 01-10-2019, 04:07 PM   #38
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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I heard this same quote about UT and UF when Butch Jones and Jim McElwain were hired and that didn't turn out to be too accurate. Precisely because of what my post points out - neither of these teams stick with a coach long enough to build a program and then wonder why they get a 4 win season every 3 years like clockwork.
Regarding sticking with a coach, I do think it will be a slow burn with Muschamp. We may have to wait another 3-4 seasons to see real success. Folks often forget that things didnít really take off for Spurrier until season 7. His first 6 seasons we were just ok.
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Old 01-10-2019, 04:08 PM   #39
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Muschamp took his program to a BCS game, Dabo didn't come close to that in his first 3 years while the win totals were very close. I'm not saying that his average win total CURRENTLY is nonsense, I'm saying it's nonsense to assume that he can't possibly outperform his current average given enough time, since that's precisely what Dabo did, and what plenty of coaches do when they're given time to complete a rebuild. We also know that Muschamp, under good enough circumstances, is capable of winning 11 games in a season. Maryland just hired a head coach whose best season as a head coach was 1-11. If you're capable of winning that many games, and you're building a program the right way, there's no reason not to put your chips in and expect he can get there again.

Dabo went to orange bowl. Won the acc outright in his 3rd year. But didn’t come close to anything Champ accomplished!!!!!
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Old 01-10-2019, 04:09 PM   #40
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Regarding sticking with a coach, I do think it will be a slow burn with Muschamp. We may have to wait another 3-4 seasons to see real success. Folks often forget that things didnít really take off for Spurrier until season 7. His first 6 seasons we were just ok.
Couldn't agree more. That's a big reason why I made this post. Spurrier is a great comparison and a great indicator of how long it can take a legend to have success here, but he was a legend so I think people tend to attribute our success solely to that instead of to continuity and program building which have a huge role. Hence why I used Dabo as an example of someone who did something similar but was unproven beforehand. It just makes it that much tougher to see the team up the road do so well while we just continue to build, but we forget they did the same thing before.
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