CockyTalk

Welcome to Cockytalk!

Thank you for visiting our forum. As a guest, you have limited access to view some discussion and articles. By joining our free community, you will be able to view all discussions and articles, post your own topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload photos, participate in Pick'Em contests and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free, so please join our community today!!

If you have any problems registering or logging in, please contact our Admins. Thanks!

Go Back   CockyTalk > Gamecocks Sports > The Cock Pit

Today's Top 10
Posters (by posts)Threads (by views)Newest Posts Gamecock Headlines 
thekob
RGHoskins
Captain9Dragons
MountainCock
Wisercock
TastyLicks
Gamecockman12
SanAntonioCock
kingofnerf
Spur's Addiction
OKST MBB dismisses t (594)
Gamecock Baseball Fa (237)
400 evacuated after (205)
*** USC MBB (9-7, 4- (132)
Total lunar eclipse (43)
*** #15 UofSC WBB (12-4,
Coaching changes
*** USC MBB (9-7, 4-0) @
I wonder if Muschamp and
How Good Can Frank's Team
*** UofSC MBB (8-7, 3-0)
CBB: GAMECOCKS @ COMMODOR
Cannot navigate Gamecocks
No longer USC
OKST MBB dismisses three


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-10-2019, 04:11 PM   #41
Ace Dilcock
1st Team All-American
 
Ace Dilcock's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Mt. Pleasant
Posts: 11,984
CockyCash: 128944
Ace Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BiscoCocky View Post
Injuries happen to every team in college football. That excuse is actually quite tiring. You also forgot the old stand by of blaming him for not having a solid qb even tho 2 of his qb recruits from his days at UF are on nfl rosters. Iíll take this time to point out he has one win over a ranked opponents while at Carolina. That 9 win season had a lot to do w schedule, and hate to break it but schedule is pretty daunting next year. Hopefully Iím wrong but right now I donít see anything definitively that makes me think weíll be better than 7 wins a season going forward. Everyone can feel free to make comparisons to other coaches or excuses for Muschamp but right now weíre coming off an ass kicking from an acc team ( yeah the conference thatís a joke and why Dabo is so good, not because Clemson is a better team is all a conference thing!) and losing ground ever min to a surging Tennessee and Florida team on the recruiting trail. Just my two cents tho, hopefully Iím dead wrong.
If you think that a team that has no injuries is not much better off than a team that loses almost an entire side of the ball, like happened with South Carolina's Defense this year, then I do not know what to tell you. It was obvious that the Defense gell off a cliff at the end of the season - just saying "injuries happen, that is no excuse" shows a lack of understanding of the game. If injuries do not matter, then why do teams run the risk of positive drug test and ineligibility by taking PEDs?

And you cannot compare Dabo's first 7 years to Boom's first 7 when Boom had to rebuild two programs largely from scratch (players and coaching staff), while Dabo just had to tweak his staff and bring in a few difference makers.

And I did not use the QB excuse because Boom learned his lesson - part of developing into a good coach. He made an early switch to a Freshman QB at South Carolina, then overhauled the Offensive coaching staff. The end result was a major improvement on Offense this year.

The problem was with the Defense this year - I thought the fact that the starters were all on the sidelines was the reason, but I just learned that is irrelevant to success.
__________________
PFW79 was right
Ace Dilcock is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 04:15 PM   #42
CockNJersey
2nd Team All-SEC
 
CockNJersey's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Jersey USA
Posts: 2,532
CockyCash: 5533
CockNJersey is USC mascot materialCockNJersey is USC mascot materialCockNJersey is USC mascot materialCockNJersey is USC mascot materialCockNJersey is USC mascot materialCockNJersey is USC mascot materialCockNJersey is USC mascot materialCockNJersey is USC mascot materialCockNJersey is USC mascot materialCockNJersey is USC mascot materialCockNJersey is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWongburger73 View Post
Couldn't agree more. That's a big reason why I made this post. Spurrier is a great comparison and a great indicator of how long it can take a legend to have success here, but he was a legend so I think people tend to attribute our success solely to that instead of to continuity and program building which have a huge role. Hence why I used Dabo as an example of someone who did something similar but was unproven beforehand. It just makes it that much tougher to see the team up the road do so well while we just continue to build, but we forget they did the same thing before.
A Clemson friend reminded me that when Dabo went 6-7 in his second full season and lost the bowl game to USF, the administration remained patient. A knee jerk reaction would have been ďwell, it was a nice, feel-good experiment to promote you to head coach, but youíre obviously in over your head. See ya.Ē
CockNJersey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 04:15 PM   #43
BiscoCocky
Blue Chip
 
BiscoCocky's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Denver,Co
Posts: 852
CockyCash: 5500
BiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWongburger73 View Post
I heard this same quote about UT and UF when Butch Jones and Jim McElwain were hired and that didn't turn out to be too accurate. Precisely because of what my post points out - neither of these teams stick with a coach long enough to build a program and then wonder why they get a 4 win season every 3 years like clockwork.
You realize Butterteeth won two east crowns in 3 years, and butch had two 9 win seasons. Both those guys are gone bc those fanbases demand excellence donít want to wait around for rebuilds, not saying that is fair or foul just the reality. We wouldnít have fired either guy has we been in that situation, heck butterteeth would have gotten a massive extension after year 2 had he been at Carolina
BiscoCocky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 04:17 PM   #44
MrWongburger73
Recruit
 
MrWongburger73's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Charleston
Posts: 125
CockyCash: 500
MrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPit
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

[QUOTE=BiscoCocky;5326741]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace Dilcock View Post
Boom also has a nine win season at South Carolina and had a winning record in his other two years at UF, so it is not just the one 11-3 season at UF. The outlier is actually the 4-8 season at UF, where the team was totally decimated by injuries.

He also should have asterisks after his first season at South Carolina, when he took a 3-9 team and led them to a bowl and a 6-7 record, and after this year, where injuries decimated the team again and cost us 1-3 wins. If he was coming off an 8-10 win season, the perspective would be very different.

It




Dabo went to orange bowl. Won the acc outright in his 3rd year. But didnít come close to anything Champ accomplished!!!!!
If you read the post, you'd see I treated his interim year as his first year, since he had half the season and had been on staff already. That would mean he went to the Orange Bowl, where he endured the worst bowl loss of all time, in his 4th year, not his 3rd. If you want to count that, however, you have to factor in the difference in strength of schedule and caliber of teams beaten, which was significant.
__________________
At Wongburger's, when it's right, it's Wong!
MrWongburger73 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 04:20 PM   #45
Legalman72
Banned
 
Legalman72's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Anderson
Posts: 6,807
CockyCash: 19800000000
Legalman72 is USC mascot materialLegalman72 is USC mascot materialLegalman72 is USC mascot materialLegalman72 is USC mascot materialLegalman72 is USC mascot materialLegalman72 is USC mascot materialLegalman72 is USC mascot materialLegalman72 is USC mascot materialLegalman72 is USC mascot materialLegalman72 is USC mascot materialLegalman72 is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

OP deserves a lot of credit for a great post with solid research.
Legalman72 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 04:32 PM   #46
MrWongburger73
Recruit
 
MrWongburger73's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Charleston
Posts: 125
CockyCash: 500
MrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPit
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BiscoCocky View Post
You realize Butterteeth won two east crowns in 3 years, and butch had two 9 win seasons. Both those guys are gone bc those fanbases demand excellence don’t want to wait around for rebuilds, not saying that is fair or foul just the reality. We wouldn’t have fired either guy has we been in that situation, heck butterteeth would have gotten a massive extension after year 2 had he been at Carolina
McElwain won two (historically weak) East crowns with Muschamp's players, then had a worse offense than Muschamp despite offense being his "specialty", recruiting went in the dumpster, he ran off the best QB they'd had in years, and that was that.

Fanbases demanding "excellence" by throwing a hissy fit and demanding a coach's head on a pike every time they don't win the SEC is how you fire a national champion in Phil Fulmer (152-52 at UT), hire Derek Dooley (15-21 at UT), fire him to hire Lane Kiffin (7-6 at UT), watch him leave, hire Butch Jones (34-27 at UT), fire him to hire Greg Schiano, have the entire student body and media threaten to burn your campus to the ground, cycle through about 15 different coaching candidates until you get to Jeremy Pruitt (5-7 at UT), a candidate so radioactive that he's never lasted longer than about two years at any stop he's ever been. No thanks, I'll pass. If peeing your pants is cool then consider me Miles Davis.
__________________
At Wongburger's, when it's right, it's Wong!
MrWongburger73 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 04:37 PM   #47
BiscoCocky
Blue Chip
 
BiscoCocky's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Denver,Co
Posts: 852
CockyCash: 5500
BiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

[QUOTE=MrWongburger73;5326748]
Quote:
Originally Posted by BiscoCocky View Post

If you read the post, you'd see I treated his interim year as his first year, since he had half the season and had been on staff already. That would mean he went to the Orange Bowl, where he endured the worst bowl loss of all time, in his 4th year, not his 3rd. If you want to count that, however, you have to factor in the difference in strength of schedule and caliber of teams beaten, which was significant.
Florida did great against Louisville as well as I recall! Pretty sure Charlie strong is still living off win.
BiscoCocky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 04:45 PM   #48
BiscoCocky
Blue Chip
 
BiscoCocky's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Denver,Co
Posts: 852
CockyCash: 5500
BiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWongburger73 View Post
McElwain won two (historically weak) East crowns with Muschamp's players, then had a worse offense than Muschamp despite offense being his "specialty", recruiting went in the dumpster, he ran off the best QB they'd had in years, and that was that.

Fanbases demanding "excellence" by throwing a hissy fit and demanding a coach's head on a pike every time they don't win the SEC is how you fire a national champion in Phil Fulmer (152-52 at UT), hire Derek Dooley (15-21 at UT), fire him to hire Lane Kiffin (7-6 at UT), watch him leave, hire Butch Jones (34-27 at UT), fire him to hire Greg Schiano, have the entire student body and media threaten to burn your campus to the ground, cycle through about 15 different coaching candidates until you get to Jeremy Pruitt (5-7 at UT), a candidate so radioactive that he's never lasted longer than about two years at any stop he's ever been. No thanks, I'll pass. If peeing your pants is cool then consider me Miles Davis.

You got me at pissing in your pants. Weird flex but ok!



I absolutely get that’s a Billy Madison reference.
BiscoCocky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 04:45 PM   #49
MrWongburger73
Recruit
 
MrWongburger73's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Charleston
Posts: 125
CockyCash: 500
MrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPit
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

[QUOTE=BiscoCocky;5326766]
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWongburger73 View Post

Florida did great against Louisville as well as I recall! Pretty sure Charlie strong is still living off win.
Not sure that 33-23 equates to 70-33, but sure. The 2012 Florida Gators also absolutely dominated the second best team we ever fielded 44-11, beating THREE teams that finished the season ranked in the top 10 in #5 Texas A&M, #8 USC, and #10 FSU as well as #14 LSU (remember, this was Muschamp's second year and Dabo didn't beat a top ten team until the end of year 6, Muschamp did it 3 times in his second year) with his only regular season loss coming to ANOTHER top 10 team in Georgia, also #5. But sure, it's the same as Dabo beating #21 twice and #23 while having the worst ever bowl loss to #17 WVU.
__________________
At Wongburger's, when it's right, it's Wong!
MrWongburger73 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 04:47 PM   #50
Ace Dilcock
1st Team All-American
 
Ace Dilcock's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Mt. Pleasant
Posts: 11,984
CockyCash: 128944
Ace Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BiscoCocky View Post
You realize Butterteeth won two east crowns in 3 years, and butch had two 9 win seasons. Both those guys are gone bc those fanbases demand excellence donít want to wait around for rebuilds, not saying that is fair or foul just the reality. We wouldnít have fired either guy has we been in that situation, heck butterteeth would have gotten a massive extension after year 2 had he been at Carolina
You do realize that those situations are totally different, right?

Butterteeth also inherited a strong and talented team, courtesy of the previous coach - Will Muschamp (3rd ranked class in 2012 and 2013, #9 in 2014). After clinching the East in his first year, he lost his final three games by a combined score of 97-22. In his second year, he won the East, courtesy of UGA being down, but lost to FSU 31-13 (combined score against his rival was 58-15), then lost the SEC title game 54-16.

In his 3rd year, he was 3-4 when he was let go. And a big reason for the firing was that he had always been a poor fit, even before the "death threats" public relations fiasco. He could only live for so long with Boom's Defensive talent and the team was heading straight down the tubes.

Jones started his 5th full season 0-6 in the SEC, with blow-out losses to Alabama, Missouri and Georgia. If Boom starts his 5th season 0-6 in the SEC, I will pull for him to be fired.

Those were not examples of demanding excellence, it was realizing that they made bad hires that made the programs into laughing stocks.
__________________
PFW79 was right
Ace Dilcock is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 04:49 PM   #51
spareparts
Hole in 1
 
spareparts's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Columbia
Posts: 25,423
CockyCash: 1000618
spareparts is USC mascot materialspareparts is USC mascot materialspareparts is USC mascot materialspareparts is USC mascot materialspareparts is USC mascot materialspareparts is USC mascot materialspareparts is USC mascot materialspareparts is USC mascot materialspareparts is USC mascot materialspareparts is USC mascot materialspareparts is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

spareparts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 05:06 PM   #52
Lankey62
Blue Chip
 
Lankey62's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Spartanburg, SC
Posts: 867
CockyCash: 3218
Lankey62 has earned his spursLankey62 has earned his spursLankey62 has earned his spursLankey62 has earned his spursLankey62 has earned his spursLankey62 has earned his spurs
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

This has been mentioned before, but I just want to reiterate. Our path to a potential playoff berth will always be more treacherous than Clemson's. In any given season, we will need to beat Georgia, Clemson, and whoever the west throws at us in the SEC Championship. Plus any of the other teams that we can slip up against.

Clemson just has to get past...nobody really. Take this year for example. If Clemson and Georgia swapped schedules, then I believe Georgia goes undefeated and Clemson drops a game or two.

Not taking anything away from Clemson, but they only needed to have everything click in one game, which happened to be the National Championship.
Lankey62 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 06:00 PM   #53
sandstorm2001
Household Name
 
sandstorm2001's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Charleston
Posts: 6,939
CockyCash: 50700
sandstorm2001 is USC mascot materialsandstorm2001 is USC mascot materialsandstorm2001 is USC mascot materialsandstorm2001 is USC mascot materialsandstorm2001 is USC mascot materialsandstorm2001 is USC mascot materialsandstorm2001 is USC mascot materialsandstorm2001 is USC mascot materialsandstorm2001 is USC mascot materialsandstorm2001 is USC mascot materialsandstorm2001 is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

I feel like this thread is getting bogged down in a direct comparison of Dabo and Muschamp. It doesn't matter who's first three years were better and when their 3 year clock starts and which metrics we measure.

What matters is that Dabo was the head coach of a 6-7, Belk bowl losing team (formerly known as the Meikeke Car Care Bowl), and built them into the Clemson we see today because he was given the time to do so. The point is that it doesn't happen overnight.
__________________
sandstorm2001 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 07:58 PM   #54
BiscoCocky
Blue Chip
 
BiscoCocky's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Denver,Co
Posts: 852
CockyCash: 5500
BiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot materialBiscoCocky is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

I was actually going out of my way to against every arguement the op made... but if LT really is gone. Then I can almost agree w OP. Dabo made his bones once he willing to fire dead weight and hire top assistants. Roper didn’t work, Bmac comes in and we have pretty dog gone good O. If the new guy can whip our dline into shape Champ could have a similar trajectory.
BiscoCocky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 08:26 PM   #55
USCBaseball
Blue Chip
 
USCBaseball's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: Goose Creek
Posts: 949
CockyCash: 690
USCBaseball is USC mascot materialUSCBaseball is USC mascot materialUSCBaseball is USC mascot materialUSCBaseball is USC mascot materialUSCBaseball is USC mascot materialUSCBaseball is USC mascot materialUSCBaseball is USC mascot materialUSCBaseball is USC mascot materialUSCBaseball is USC mascot materialUSCBaseball is USC mascot materialUSCBaseball is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by spareparts View Post
There he is!
USCBaseball is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2019, 08:26 PM   #56
TwoNotch Dreams
Hot Up In The Met
 
TwoNotch Dreams's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Columbia
Posts: 1,861
CockyCash: 5500
TwoNotch Dreams is USC mascot materialTwoNotch Dreams is USC mascot materialTwoNotch Dreams is USC mascot materialTwoNotch Dreams is USC mascot materialTwoNotch Dreams is USC mascot materialTwoNotch Dreams is USC mascot materialTwoNotch Dreams is USC mascot materialTwoNotch Dreams is USC mascot materialTwoNotch Dreams is USC mascot materialTwoNotch Dreams is USC mascot materialTwoNotch Dreams is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Props for you for doing the research and giving a detailed post.

However, I think your conclusion is really wishful and off. You can compare Dabo's first three years in Clemson and his recruiting to a number of head coaches. Hell, you could compare it to Will Muschamp at Florida. He went 22-16 in his first 3 years at Florida. Dabo went 19-14. It'd be like saying "Coach K was 38-47 in his first three years at Duke and insert coach here already has a comparable record. That means he's possibly on pace to match Coach K's formula/legacy."

It's never that simple. Otherwise, a lot of teams are on the verge of matching Clemson's formula to create a possible dynasty.

I think we have a much steeper climb to becoming an elite program than Clemson did. Georgia and Florida are in our division; Clemson is the in-state rival. Alabama is the representative of the SEC West every year in the SEC Title game. Those are 4 big-time schools that typically out-coach, out-recruit us, have stronger brands and have better history and funds on their side.

Aside from Florida State, Clemson didn't have to worry about any schools like that. The Dabo trajectory isn't really something that boils down to record and recruiting rankings. I'd argue that it's a trajectory that is rarely duplicated.
TwoNotch Dreams is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2019, 08:12 AM   #57
BeaufortCOCK
Blue Chip
 
BeaufortCOCK's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Take a guess
Posts: 738
CockyCash: 60200
BeaufortCOCK is USC mascot materialBeaufortCOCK is USC mascot materialBeaufortCOCK is USC mascot materialBeaufortCOCK is USC mascot materialBeaufortCOCK is USC mascot materialBeaufortCOCK is USC mascot materialBeaufortCOCK is USC mascot materialBeaufortCOCK is USC mascot materialBeaufortCOCK is USC mascot materialBeaufortCOCK is USC mascot materialBeaufortCOCK is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BiscoCocky View Post
Nice try, but conviently leaving out his time at Florida. Which does matter. If Muschamp had been the wrs coach who got the interim job ala Dabo when spurrier quit mid season this post would carry more weight. Fact of the matter is Muschamp is great recruiter, good defensive coach, but so far in his career a mediocre head coach. The only outlier in his head coaching career is that 11-3 season. Heís averaging 7 wins for his career, unless he develops a great amount of luck then heís more than likely going to be stuck at 7 wins for the foreseeable future. A lot of people forget but when he got hired at Carolina everyone kept raving about how he has the same amount t of wins as Saban thru 4 years, how did that comparison work out???
Had to be the guy. Working out fairly well.
Through 7 seasons. Only one of Saban's in the SEC at this point.

Muschamp 50-38
Saban 51-30-1
__________________
Gamecock = Ass Kicking Chicken
BSME '03

R.I.P. "White Circle" 1983-2015
BeaufortCOCK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2019, 01:23 PM   #58
MrWongburger73
Recruit
 
MrWongburger73's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Charleston
Posts: 125
CockyCash: 500
MrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPitMrWongburger73 rules the CockPit
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoNotch Dreams View Post
Props for you for doing the research and giving a detailed post.

However, I think your conclusion is really wishful and off. You can compare Dabo's first three years in Clemson and his recruiting to a number of head coaches. Hell, you could compare it to Will Muschamp at Florida. He went 22-16 in his first 3 years at Florida. Dabo went 19-14. It'd be like saying "Coach K was 38-47 in his first three years at Duke and insert coach here already has a comparable record. That means he's possibly on pace to match Coach K's formula/legacy."

It's never that simple. Otherwise, a lot of teams are on the verge of matching Clemson's formula to create a possible dynasty.

I think we have a much steeper climb to becoming an elite program than Clemson did. Georgia and Florida are in our division; Clemson is the in-state rival. Alabama is the representative of the SEC West every year in the SEC Title game. Those are 4 big-time schools that typically out-coach, out-recruit us, have stronger brands and have better history and funds on their side.

Aside from Florida State, Clemson didn't have to worry about any schools like that. The Dabo trajectory isn't really something that boils down to record and recruiting rankings. I'd argue that it's a trajectory that is rarely duplicated.
A couple of points. One, I'm aware it isn't that simple and there's no guarantees we WILL reach the heights Dabo has with his program, but this post serves as a testament to the idea that there's no reason, based on the information we have thus far, to think that we CAN'T reach those heights with Coach Muschamp. That's the primary reason why I compared the two in this fashion. With what we know, they are similarly performing early, and Dabo developed his program into a powerhouse. Based on early returns, we certainly could do the same, but we almost assuredly WON'T without giving a stable, long-term situation like Dabo got at Clemson.

I also think the generalization you make about comparing any number of coaches to Dabo is a bit of a fallacy. How many coaches would remain when you apply more filters than just overall record, such as average recruiting position, geographic location, age/experience of coach, number of years at the program, etc. I would contend that that eliminates the vast majority of potential comparisons, ergo why I included and broke down all those statistics. Simply including average recruiting position alone means you couldn't have more than 25 or so teams that fit the criteria, and from there, you'd filter out a lot based on other characteristics. Dabo simply serves as an example that it CAN be done with the right staff and enough time and consistency, and this post stands to indicate that we've seen nothing from Muschamp so far that tells us Dabo had "it" and he doesn't.

I think Dabo's success at Clemson also proves that the "steep climb" isn't really that big of a factor when it comes to our conference. He got stomped by out of conference teams every single year and built his program anyway. Even if we go through several years of losing to Georgia and Alabama types in-conference, we can still build a program that can eventually take the next step, because he did. He built a program that wins NCs now despite losing every year to his in-state rival for 5 years in a row and losing to every decent ranked team they played. He built a program while not beating a top 10 team until year 6, only beating one top 15 team for the first five years. That's the whole point. You can lose some, be behind other programs some, go backwards in record some depending on your schedule, and still build a winning program if you have the right formula, and Muschamp seems to have that so far. Dabo may not have had those other programs in-conference but they were still in geographic area, and competing for the same recruits. That's really not that different to us when it comes to recruiting, which is how you build the foundation. For that matter, we had to play Georgia and Florida every year when Spurrier was here and we were still able to build a foundation capable of winning 33 games in 3 years, so again, why wouldn't that be possible again?
__________________
At Wongburger's, when it's right, it's Wong!
MrWongburger73 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2019, 01:50 PM   #59
Ace Dilcock
1st Team All-American
 
Ace Dilcock's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Mt. Pleasant
Posts: 11,984
CockyCash: 128944
Ace Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot materialAce Dilcock is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Dabo had a little assist with the 2011 recruiting class, where 3 OOS 5* players signed on to give Clemson the #10 class. I guess they were so impressed with Dabo's stellar 6-7 record in 2010 and his status as a coach on the hot seat that they were willing to travel far away, to the edge of civilization (maybe PAST the edge of civilization) to play in a Cupcake league. And remember, back then there was no slide or nappy-poo rooms as an inducement. Makes you wonder what other incentive$ were involved.

But I digress. As Wong eloquently explains, you cannot look at our success (or lack thereof) simply in terms of wins and losses - we play a difficult schedule and next year is the toughest yet. Beating UGA in the East will be difficult, as will beating Alabama or whoever wins in the West. And until the playoffs expand to 8 teams (they will), it will not be possible to get in without at least winning the East.

What we have to worry about right now is beating UK, UF and Clemson. Beating UK and UF makes a solid #2 in the East, and in a position to challenge UGA and get to Atlanta. There is no reason we cannot beat both, starting in 2019.

Beating Clemson knocks them out of playoff contention due to their weak conference slate, and will ramp up our recruiting. I really believe we can beat them this year also - our Offense did really well last year and they will be facing a weaker Clemson D, we just need to get our D healthy enough to slow down their Offense. We should be motivated to avoid a six-peat and we have them at home.
__________________
PFW79 was right
Ace Dilcock is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2019, 05:52 PM   #60
superfly
Game MVP
 
superfly's Avatar
 
Male

Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: WHATCHAMACALLIT, EGYPT
Posts: 1,855
CockyCash: 1000000
superfly is USC mascot materialsuperfly is USC mascot materialsuperfly is USC mascot materialsuperfly is USC mascot materialsuperfly is USC mascot materialsuperfly is USC mascot materialsuperfly is USC mascot materialsuperfly is USC mascot materialsuperfly is USC mascot materialsuperfly is USC mascot materialsuperfly is USC mascot material
Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWongburger73 View Post
Welcome to my two-part treatise on why you should give Will Muschamp at least 3 more years if you want to win championships at Carolina. Most of us can begrudgingly agree that Dabo has done what many thought was impossible at Clemson - he's won two national championships in 3 years and the team that was once a joke has now become a national powerhouse. I hate it as much as any of you, but it's a fact. Dabo is widely hailed nationally as one of the best coaches with one of the best programs in the country, so it might be easy for any of us to forget his humble beginnings. Juxtaposed with their success, Muschamp's current foibles here at Carolina look that much worse - why can't we just be as good as them? It wasn't that long ago that we were regularly destroying them at the end of the year, and here they are winning championships while we get blown out in bowl games.

However, a more interesting trend emerges if we drill down a bit deeper and look at the numbers here. You see, in many more ways than one, Muschamp's early career at USC is mirroring Dabo's early career at Clemson. I first started thinking about this when discussing with a friend how a lot of the fanbase wanted to run Dabo off after his third season, but they didn't and we all see the results. I've seen some similar sentiments around here, and it occurred to me we might all benefit from seeing the similarities between our own coach and one who has taken a program to national championships right down the road.

Let's start with the records. For this portion we're going to give Dabo credit for only the games he coached in the interim season and Muschamp credit for those he's coached so far.

Dabo year 1: 4-3. Muschamp year 1: 6-7.
Dabo year 2: 9-5. Muschamp year 2: 9-4.
Dabo year 3: 6-7. Muschamp year 3: 7-6.

This comes out to a win percentage of 55.8% for Dabo, and 56.4% for Muschamp. Advantage here is Muschamp.

"But wait, OP, you're forgetting about Muschamp's dismal record of 1-11 against ranked teams!" Actually, I'm not, but to explain, I need to make a brief disclaimer. I don't believe in giving credit to beating or losing to a ranked team based on their ranking at the time. This may seem counterintuitive, but doing this gives Clemson a ranked win in 2012 against #25 Auburn in the first game, a season in which Auburn finished 3-9. It's crazy to give them a ranked win in this case. Instead, we're going to look at both coaches' records against teams ranked at the end of the season, rather than the beginning. This gives us a much better indication of the caliber of teams played during the year rather than looking at it with a heavy bias applied towards preseason rankings, which are garbage anyway. With this metric, we see the records shift a bit. All rankings are derived from the AP end-of-season poll, since the CFP poll wasn't around for Dabo's early tenure.

Versus teams ranked at the end of the year:

Dabo year 1: 0-1. Muschamp year 1: 1-3.
Dabo year 2: 1-3. Muschamp year 2: 1-2.
Dabo year 3: 2-3. Muschamp year 3: 1-5.

Dabo ranked win percentage first 3 years: 30%. Muschamp ranked win percentage first 3 years: 23%. This difference is definitely an advantage for Dabo, but not a huge one. One more win (such as over Florida) would swing this in Muschamp's favor.

I know what you're thinking. Dabo's specialty isn't on the field stuff. It's the recruiting. And I've seen great dissatisfaction around here that "Flipper" hasn't been able to pull in top 5 classes every year, since that's what we need to build a foundation like Clemson's or Alabama's. But is that really true? Let's take a look and compare recruiting rankings to see how these two teams were recruiting at similar points in the coaches' tenures. For this comparison, I'm going to include both Dabo's interim year (as he was heavily involved in recruiting) and his third full year, since there's little difference in the overall average. I'm also not including Muschamp's first year, since he had like 2 months, instead substituting the 2019 class ranking (which I know isn't finished and could go up or down, but probably only up.)

Dabo year 1 (interim): Clemson 9th. Muschamp year 1: Carolina 21st.
Dabo year 2: Clemson 36th. Muschamp year 2: Carolina 18th.
Dabo year 3: Clemson 27th. Muschamp year 3: Carolina 21st.
Dabo year 4: Clemson 10th.

Let's look at the average rankings, using the first (or last) 3 for both coaches.

Dabo: Average position 24. Muschamp: Average position 20. Looking at this metric, Muschamp is out recruiting where Dabo was in his first years with the program. Building the foundation - a foundation that ultimately contributed to Clemson winning national championships, and doing it better.

I don't think any posters here would argue that Clemson would have had the success they've had running Dabo off after 3 years. So looking at the numbers, it would be very, very silly for us to do anything of the sort with Muschamp, since the trajectories of these coaches, statistically, are very similar so far.

"But OP, numbers aren't everything - you have to pass the eye test." For this exercise, I'm going to tell you something and I want you to tell me which coach this describes. Ready?

"This coach elected to go into his first two years with an offensive coordinator that he had prior experience working with but that wasnít terribly innovative and proved not to be effective. After his first two years, this coach fired his OC and ultimately took a flier on a young, unproven but innovative OC that transformed his offense."

If you guessed Muschamp AND Dabo, you're correct! Just a fun little tidbit in there for you to take a break from all the math. A fun little tidbit that could shape the program for years in the same way that it did for Dabo.

So from recruiting, to coaching staff changes, to overall record, to record against ranked teams, we have two coaches with VERY similar starts at universities in the same state with the same talent pool and recruiting grounds, despite Dabo inheriting a better situation. This brings us to part 2 of my treatise, and something I've seen written here a lot: We have to see a huge leap in year 4 for them to follow the same trajectory, and next year's schedule is awful, so that throws that right out the window, right?

No. Treatise part 2: Clemson hasn't actually been very good until 2015. At which point, almost overnight, they became elite. To support this hypothesis, we're going to again look at teams that finished the year ranked. For a great while, the ACC was so bad that Clemson had no one to play and got destroyed when they played good out of conference teams. In 2011, for instance, Clemson finished 10-4, a record we would be thrilled with. However, they were 3-2 against ranked teams, beating #23 FSU and #21 VT but losing to #14 USC and #17 WVU (lol). In 2012, they were 11-2, but lost to #10 FSU and lost to #12 USC, finally beating #14 LSU in their bowl by 1 point. This marks the first time that Dabo beats a team in the top 15. In year FIVE. This is also Venables' first year. 2013 finds Clemson with a record of 11-2 and a top 10 AP finish, but they have blowout losses to #1 FSU and #4 USC before finally beating #7 OSU in their bowl. This, to me, is Dabo's signature win. Clemson was an underdog, this was a huge national stage, their return to the Orange Bowl after 70-33, and this win was a springboard. From this point on, they were elite. This signature win came in year SIX. For those of you mad that Muschamp doesn't have one yet in year 3, remember that the 2x national champion up the road took SIX years to get his.

We do suffer from a much tougher conference/schedule than Clemson, but this should improve your evaluation of Muschamp, not condemn it. Let's take 2012 as an example. Clemson was 11-2, matching our best record all time. If you average the win totals of the teams Clemson beat that year, it comes out to 5.7 wins. This year, if you do the same for the disappointing, blown out, insert negative adjective here Gamecocks you read about on this board, the win totals of the teams we beat averaged 5.5. 2/10ths of a win. Flip these schedules and Carolina is pretty close to an 11 win team. "But that doesn't matter! They're in the ACC and we have to be SEC elite!" Just remember Clemson just absolutely demolished the best the SEC had to offer. We played them better than Bama did. Bentley dramatically outplayed Tua, and Tua had run support.

So what's the take-home here? "Give me a TL;DR, I can't be asked to read this! It has numbers in it and I don't like that! It was a wall of text, I'd much rather be shouted at in all caps and epithets!" Glad you asked. Let's take a look at one final stat: continued recruiting rankings. Clemson 2012 20th, 2013 15th, 2014 16th, 2015 9th, 2016 11th, 2017 16th, 2018 7th, 2019 6th. The team that won a national championship 2 years ago cracked the top 10 1 time. Clemson has a formula, and it's one we're on pace to match. One they executed right under our noses while we were busy dominating them. A formula with two constants: consistency of staff and TIME. The time and trust from fans and administrators to execute the plan. They cracked the top 20 in recruiting rankings as often as possible, developed facilities, nailed player evaluations and developed them well, got a great set of assistants and paid them enough to keep them, and finally, got an elite QB. Now they're winning championships. So far, Muschamp is doing all of the above, pending Hilinski panning out, and having nearly identical results to Dabo's early returns along the way.

Logic and statistics dictate we should hang onto Muschamp and give him time to develop the program, and in the next 3-5 years we should be able to topple giants. If you don't think we should give him that kind of time, you must not want to win championships here. Time and consistency are the difference between programs like Clemson and programs like Tennessee. Which do you want us to be?
Those are very solid arguments...but I didn't need them. I have felt like Muschamp was a home run from the start. He is personable....and he connects with his players (even ex players from other schools) and recruits. That is a win, win. I am less concerned about staffing now that I see he will pull the plug. Now...he if will just pull the plug on Bentley if he is having a bad day. I hope Bentley's bad days are behind him...but just in case....
superfly is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Tags
blah blah blah, numbers, tl;dr

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:14 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Provided by SLB Development