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Old 01-11-2019, 06:07 PM   #61
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by CockNJersey View Post
while the starts are comparable, Dabo wasn’t faced with turning his program around with 2 recruiting juggernauts and top 5 teams in his own back yard. The climate for Muschamp is very, very, very different from what Dabo faced.
We were beating them with ease. That was enough pressure and the fanbase turned on him. Thus the "rant"... that's when the tide turned.

It's not hard to see what happened and why sticking with him was the best decision.

It didn't matter about what UGA and Bama were doing, it was about us and Spurrier.
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Old 01-11-2019, 11:52 PM   #62
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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OP deserves a lot of credit for a great post with solid research.
Definitely agree. Threads like this are what make CT fun.
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Old 01-12-2019, 08:15 AM   #63
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by Acockolypse Now View Post
You left out one critical difference. Clemson has an AD and a booster network willing to do WHATEVER they need to in order to win. We do not.
The Venables hire seemed to make the most impact to me.
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Old 01-12-2019, 09:28 AM   #64
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by MrWongburger73 View Post
Dabo was heavily involved in recruiting, that’s the whole reason Bowden brought him on in the first place. Dabo also retained Billy Napier as OC, moved Jeff Scott from WRs to TEs, kept Brad Scott as AHC/OL, Chris Rumph as DE, and Andre Powell as RB, so he kept nearly as much of that staff as he let go. You can choose to not count the wins that year if you want, but to say it wasn’t his players when he was heavily involved in recruiting and was an offensive coach himself or his staff when he retained over half of them isn’t accurate. Again, you can not count Muschamp’s first year either, but he still had to coach the on field product and that is indicative of his ability to coach on game day and instruct during the week.

With regard to your 10 win comment, I’m beginning to think you may not have read the whole post. In it, I note that in 2012, the first 11 win season for Dabo, the average win count of opponents they beat was 5.7. This year, the average win count of teams we beat was 5.5. Simply put, Dabo won 11 games because they played a lot more 5ish win teams than we did this year. We would have won 10-11 games with Clemson’s 2012 schedule, and they probably would have won 7-8 in 2012 if they had our schedule this year. So as a function of who they beat, one of the few objective measures you can make to see where teams compare, we were similar to Dabo’s 2012 11 win squad this year regardless of how many we win next year. In terms of trajectory, your last point is not particularly relevant.
This argument got destroyed after UVA, right or wrong, who knows, but you can’t lose by 28 to a mediocre ACC team then claim you’d run roughshod through that conference if given the chance.

Also, Clemson’s 10 FBS wins had a total of 60 wins, for an average of 6.0. You obviously didn’t count FCS with SC’s number (33 wins in 6 FBS wins for 5.5 average), so hopefully you didn’t with Clemson. No difference between a 2 win and 9 win FCS team in skill compared to P5 team. To equal Clemson’s average, SC would’ve had to beat an FBS team with 9 wins, something SC has done only 4 times in the last 5 seasons

I appreciate the work you did but hard to trust the numbers now when the first fact check pulled up an easy miss

Also, counting an interim tag as Year 1 is shady. Obviously you did it because Dabo won the ACC and 10 games in 2011 after 3 full years. Dabo’s role as a skill player recruiter as WR coach is nothing compared to the role a HC has, you obviously know that. I’d be interested comparing both coaches first actual 3 years. Would’ve been an interesting discussion then

Last edited by PFW79; 01-12-2019 at 09:45 AM..
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Old 01-12-2019, 10:05 AM   #65
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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The Venables hire seemed to make the most impact to me.
Don't forget Chad Morris...those two hires were gold. Morris may be gone, but his disciples have run the show since his departure. I am not sure that TRob and BMac are in the same category as them, time will tell but if this season was any indicator... My youngest brother, who did not play college football but is a little savvy, has season tix beside me and his 11 year old sits between us on gameday...he called every play we were running this season before we ran it with an upper 90% accuracy and called what opposing offenses were going to do to us with close to the same. Morris and Venables hide what they are doing much better (yes, I mean Morris' disciples now) and have been quite creative.

Dabo went out and got up and comers while Boom seems to be taking care of friends for a few years. Hope that suspicion is wrong, time will tell, but Dabo has been willing to take chances and try things while we seem to be boringly predictable.


Let's face it...we weren't a 'fun' team to watch this season. That was the #1 comment I have heard this year. Clemson is winning, having fun while doing it, and they are entertaining too.


I wonder what kind of stats our receivers, any or all of them, would have playing for them.


-----


Back to the OP...I wonder if the OP is projecting two national championships during the same time frame for us with this staff? Is that part of what he is saying here?
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Old 01-12-2019, 10:16 AM   #66
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by PFW79 View Post
This argument got destroyed after UVA, right or wrong, who knows, but you can’t lose by 28 to a mediocre ACC team then claim you’d run roughshod through that conference if given the chance.
...yup. It's a nice set of comparable stats, but they are hard to embrace as inspiring after the 28-0 debacle.
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Old 01-12-2019, 10:19 AM   #67
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by Cocky2001 View Post
Don't forget Chad Morris...those two hires were gold. Morris may be gone, but his disciples have run the show since his departure. I am not sure that TRob and BMac are in the same category as them, time will tell but if this season was any indicator... My youngest brother, who did not play college football but is a little savvy, has season tix beside me and his 11 year old sits between us on gameday...he called every play we were running this season before we ran it with an upper 90% accuracy and called what opposing offenses were going to do to us with close to the same. Morris and Venables hide what they are doing much better (yes, I mean Morris' disciples now) and have been quite creative.

Dabo went out and got up and comers while Boom seems to be taking care of friends for a few years. Hope that suspicion is wrong, time will tell, but Dabo has been willing to take chances and try things while we seem to be boringly predictable.


Let's face it...we weren't a 'fun' team to watch this season. That was the #1 comment I have heard this year. Clemson is winning, having fun while doing it, and they are entertaining too.


I wonder what kind of stats our receivers, any or all of them, would have playing for them.


-----


Back to the OP...I wonder if the OP is projecting two national championships during the same time frame for us with this staff? Is that part of what he is saying here?
What counts as calling what we're going to do? Calling run vs pass? Calling what route we throw to? What hole we're trying to hit? I believe Muschamp has said our offense depends a lot on defensive alligment, so you can probably guess pretty well just by counting how many defenders are in the run box.
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Old 01-12-2019, 10:33 AM   #68
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by PFW79 View Post
This argument got destroyed after UVA, right or wrong, who knows, but you can’t lose by 28 to a mediocre ACC team then claim you’d run roughshod through that conference if given the chance.

Also, Clemson’s 10 FBS wins had a total of 60 wins, for an average of 6.0. You obviously didn’t count FCS with SC’s number (33 wins in 6 FBS wins for 5.5 average), so hopefully you didn’t with Clemson. No difference between a 2 win and 9 win FCS team in skill compared to P5 team. To equal Clemson’s average, SC would’ve had to beat an FBS team with 9 wins, something SC has done only 4 times in the last 5 seasons

I appreciate the work you did but hard to trust the numbers now when the first fact check pulled up an easy miss

Also, counting an interim tag as Year 1 is shady. Obviously you did it because Dabo won the ACC and 10 games in 2011 after 3 full years. Dabo’s role as a skill player recruiter as WR coach is nothing compared to the role a HC has, you obviously know that. I’d be interested comparing both coaches first actual 3 years. Would’ve been an interesting discussion then
Dabo also had either 11 or 15 players drafted during his first three years depending on whether you want to start the clock during his interim year or the next.

Muschamp had 0 his first year, 1 his second (Hurst, originally walked on), and I'm assuming won't have more than a couple this year. Probably just Deebo.

It's obvious that there was a huge talent disparity in the teams they took over.

****Edit - The mention of Hurst being a walk-on isn't a knock on him, I just like to point that out to reiterate that Spurrier didn't recruit him.
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Old 01-12-2019, 11:13 AM   #69
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Kudos to the OP. That may have been the most well-reasoned, thoughtfully researched, rationally constructed argument I’ve ever read on Cockytalk. Excellent job, sir.
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Old 01-12-2019, 11:59 AM   #70
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by Ace Dilcock View Post

Beating Clemson knocks them out of playoff contention due to their weak conference slate,

Given their recent success, I think they'd still make it in as long as we were their only loss. Also depending on where they are ranked at the time.
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Old 01-12-2019, 01:14 PM   #71
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by sandstorm2001 View Post
Dabo also had either 11 or 15 players drafted during his first three years depending on whether you want to start the clock during his interim year or the next.

Muschamp had 0 his first year, 1 his second (Hurst, originally walked on), and I'm assuming won't have more than a couple this year. Probably just Deebo.

It's obvious that there was a huge talent disparity in the teams they took over.

****Edit - The mention of Hurst being a walk-on isn't a knock on him, I just like to point that out to reiterate that Spurrier didn't recruit him.
Agreed, that’s a valid point
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Old 01-12-2019, 01:30 PM   #72
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by sandstorm2001 View Post
Dabo also had either 11 or 15 players drafted during his first three years depending on whether you want to start the clock during his interim year or the next.

Muschamp had 0 his first year, 1 his second (Hurst, originally walked on), and I'm assuming won't have more than a couple this year. Probably just Deebo.

It's obvious that there was a huge talent disparity in the teams they took over.

****Edit - The mention of Hurst being a walk-on isn't a knock on him, I just like to point that out to reiterate that Spurrier didn't recruit him.


That's the best stat and point I've seen made to support the notion that we were talent depleted. Great mention.
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Old 01-12-2019, 01:33 PM   #73
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

Also, why compare the 2. Dabo at Clemson was a first time HC,the other guy was a coach that got fired at Florida,so he already had a 4 season head start . No comparison between the 2.One is a 2 time NC winning coach, the other was fired from a school that has every built in to secceed. If you can't win at Florida ,you are not Div FBS material. I don't get how people can't see that.


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If you can't succeed at those schools ,back to Cooordinator or FCS roles for you.
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Old 01-12-2019, 01:56 PM   #74
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by PFW79 View Post
This argument got destroyed after UVA, right or wrong, who knows, but you canÂ’t lose by 28 to a mediocre ACC team then claim youÂ’d run roughshod through that conference if given the chance.

Also, ClemsonÂ’s 10 FBS wins had a total of 60 wins, for an average of 6.0. You obviously didnÂ’t count FCS with SCÂ’s number (33 wins in 6 FBS wins for 5.5 average), so hopefully you didnÂ’t with Clemson. No difference between a 2 win and 9 win FCS team in skill compared to P5 team. To equal ClemsonÂ’s average, SC wouldÂ’ve had to beat an FBS team with 9 wins, something SC has done only 4 times in the last 5 seasons

I appreciate the work you did but hard to trust the numbers now when the first fact check pulled up an easy miss

Also, counting an interim tag as Year 1 is shady. Obviously you did it because Dabo won the ACC and 10 games in 2011 after 3 full years. DaboÂ’s role as a skill player recruiter as WR coach is nothing compared to the role a HC has, you obviously know that. IÂ’d be interested comparing both coaches first actual 3 years. WouldÂ’ve been an interesting discussion then
No, Wong's argument is still gold. As you are fond of commenting, using a one game result to make a general conclusion is not accurate.

We lost to UVA with most of our defensive starters on the sidelines, along with our best O Lineman and best Offensive skill player. The injuries were so bad that we had to limit practies so we would have enough bodies to play. We win with a healthy team - hard to argue that, since we were still favored even with a badly depleted roster.

That result was an outlier - South Carolina has done very well against the Cupcake Conference in recent years, outside of the rivalry game. You guys have been good, the rest of the league has been terrible - how else do you explain your other division champ finishing 7-6 and 1-4 OOC, or blow-outs in the other three rivalry games, or having only one other ranked team?

Which "destroys" your analysis based on win-loss records. No matter what conference you play in, the win-loss percentage for league games will always be .500. ACC wins do not mean much, sorry. In the SEC, it just means more.

You can analyze Dabo's first years at Clemson anyway you want, counting the interim year or not, versus Boom's time at Florida or South Carolina. The point is that Dabo was not more successful despite coming into a much better situation and playing a weaker schedule. However many excuses you want to make for Dabo, the point is that he got off to a slow start, was on thin ice, and lost 5 straight to his rival by double digits after he got the initial win to lose the interim tag.

A bizarrely $ucce$$ful recruiting class in 2011 began the turnaround, but he did not start any better than Boom. That does not mean that Boom will be as successful as Dabo - Boom is in a much tougher league, after all - but there is nothing to say that he will not be.
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Old 01-12-2019, 02:20 PM   #75
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by PFW79 View Post
This argument got destroyed after UVA, right or wrong, who knows, but you can’t lose by 28 to a mediocre ACC team then claim you’d run roughshod through that conference if given the chance.

Also, Clemson’s 10 FBS wins had a total of 60 wins, for an average of 6.0. You obviously didn’t count FCS with SC’s number (33 wins in 6 FBS wins for 5.5 average), so hopefully you didn’t with Clemson. No difference between a 2 win and 9 win FCS team in skill compared to P5 team. To equal Clemson’s average, SC would’ve had to beat an FBS team with 9 wins, something SC has done only 4 times in the last 5 seasons

I appreciate the work you did but hard to trust the numbers now when the first fact check pulled up an easy miss

Also, counting an interim tag as Year 1 is shady. Obviously you did it because Dabo won the ACC and 10 games in 2011 after 3 full years. Dabo’s role as a skill player recruiter as WR coach is nothing compared to the role a HC has, you obviously know that. I’d be interested comparing both coaches first actual 3 years. Would’ve been an interesting discussion then
Virginia finished this year 8-5. That’s well above the average win count of teams beaten by us in 2018 and Clemson in 2012. It’s safe to say that neither team would have necessarily beaten that team but would have beaten the teams they played in 2012. Your throwing Virginia in there is completely irrelevant, injecting emotions and subjective perception into a discussion about numbers. Doesn’t contradict my argument at all. I didn’t say we’d run through the ACC THIS year, I said they’d win a similar number of games if they played similar caliber of opponents as Dabo did in 2012 the number of times that Dabo did. That’s all. Not talking about the ACC now. That’s a straw man, and a cute but irrelevant way to undermine my point. Way to play fast and loose with my numbers, though! You just arbitrarily decided to throw out the FCS games and it just so happened to work out similarly. It’s not “obvious” that I threw those out because I didn’t. I counted all games. Ask Michigan a few years back if there’s any difference between a 9 win FCS team and a 2 win FCS team. But it is easy to reinforce your point when you conveniently omit statistics that aren’t favorable to you. If you’re so into omitting games to manipulate your point, I’ll just omit our bowl game and your entire point crumbles.

And if you want to pretend Dabo’s first 7 games didn’t happen, I don’t know what to tell you, but it’s not fair to compare Dabo’s first three full years to Muschamp’s first three because Dabo had a TREMENDOUS head start. I was trying to equalize the two out, but no, I don’t give too much weight to Dabo’s win of an incredibly weak ACC when he followed it up with the biggest loss in bowl history.
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Old 01-12-2019, 02:29 PM   #76
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Also, why compare the 2. Dabo at Clemson was a first time HC,the other guy was a coach that got fired at Florida,so he already had a 4 season head start . No comparison between the 2.One is a 2 time NC winning coach, the other was fired from a school that has every built in to secceed. If you can't win at Florida ,you are not Div FBS material. I don't get how people can't see that.


UF
So Cal
Texas
UGA
ND
Ohio State

If you can't succeed at those schools ,back to Cooordinator or FCS roles for you.
>can’t win
>beat three top ten teams in your second year

Pick one.
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Old 01-12-2019, 02:55 PM   #77
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by MrWongburger73 View Post
Virginia finished this year 8-5. That’s well above the average win count of teams beaten by us in 2018 and Clemson in 2012. It’s safe to say that neither team would have necessarily beaten that team but would have beaten the teams they played in 2012. Your throwing Virginia in there is completely irrelevant, injecting emotions and subjective perception into a discussion about numbers. Doesn’t contradict my argument at all. I didn’t say we’d run through the ACC THIS year, I said they’d win a similar number of games if they played similar caliber of opponents as Dabo did in 2012 the number of times that Dabo did. That’s all. Not talking about the ACC now. That’s a straw man, and a cute but irrelevant way to undermine my point. Way to play fast and loose with my numbers, though! You just arbitrarily decided to throw out the FCS games and it just so happened to work out similarly. It’s not “obvious” that I threw those out because I didn’t. I counted all games. Ask Michigan a few years back if there’s any difference between a 9 win FCS team and a 2 win FCS team. But it is easy to reinforce your point when you conveniently omit statistics that aren’t favorable to you. If you’re so into omitting games to manipulate your point, I’ll just omit our bowl game and your entire point crumbles.

And if you want to pretend Dabo’s first 7 games didn’t happen, I don’t know what to tell you, but it’s not fair to compare Dabo’s first three full years to Muschamp’s first three because Dabo had a TREMENDOUS head start. I was trying to equalize the two out, but no, I don’t give too much weight to Dabo’s win of an incredibly weak ACC when he followed it up with the biggest loss in bowl history.
Well, UVA isn't 7-6 because SC lost to them as a TD favorite. They shouldn't be 8-5. In fact, everyone on this board said they would be 7-6 after the Belk Bowl.

Interesting that you counted FCS wins as being equal to FBS. You seem to be pretty sharp with numbers. Interesting choice. No, I don't think there's a difference in win totals with FCS teams. No P5 team should ever lose to an FCS team. Muschamp would know.

Was Dabo's head start really that great? He went from being a WR coach to being a head coach. At least Muschamp had over 10 years DC experience, plus 4 years as a major P5 coach.

You act as if coach's can't come in and take over P5 programs that are in the dumps. Tom Herman has risen Texas up in Year 2 (and before you say Texas is better historically, remember that Charlie Strong failed miserably right before him trying to do the same thing). Dan Mullen had a better season in Year One than Muschamp or McIlwain ever had in their 6 years, and he took over a worse program than they did.

SC just got shutout for the first time in 12 years. It's the 4th worst bowl shutout loss by ANY team in the last 20 years. Weeks after that OB loss, Dabo had Morris and Venables on his staff. Are you saying that Muschamp has already made the necessary staff changes to make South Carolina a national contender like Dabo had? If not, then I'm confused as to the point of this thread.

Is the point to suggest that Muschamp is on a similar trajectory to Dabo? Because if so, then Muschamp is going to need to at least win the SEC East in 2019.

Or is the point to talk dumpers off the ledge and to give Muschamp more time? Which is completely fine. But it really isn't that strong of an argument. Sunshine Pumpers have been using the examples of Frank Beamer (21-40-2 in his first 6 seasons at VT) and Bobby Bowden (42-26 at WVU in 6 years, a 23-13 at FSU in first 3 years) as examples for patience for like 20 years. This isn't really a new argument. Now there's just an added data point of now Dabo who took a few years to create a CFB Powerhouse.

But for every one of these 3 HOF coaches who took a few years to become elite, there are several that started slow, and haven't gotten any better, even with more chances.

Ron Zook- 23-14 at UF, 34-51 at Illinois (eery similarities to Muschamp)
Steve Addazio- 38-38 in 6 seasons at BC
Lane Kiffin- 35-21 in 5 seasons at P5 schools
Greg Schiano- 68-67 in 11 seasons
Bret Bielama- 29-34 in 5 seasons at Arkansas
Larry Fedora- 45-43 in 7 seasons at UNC
Dave Doeren- 43-34 in 6 seasons at NCST
Derek Mason- 24-38 in 5 season at Vandy

Last edited by PFW79; 01-12-2019 at 03:10 PM..
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Old 01-12-2019, 03:10 PM   #78
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by PFW79 View Post
Well, UVA isn't 7-6 because SC lost to them as a TD favorite. They shouldn't be 8-5. In fact, everyone on this board said they would be 7-6 after the Belk Bowl.

Interesting that you counted FCS wins as being equal to FBS. You seem to be pretty sharp with numbers. Interesting choice. No, I don't think there's a difference in win totals with FCS teams. No P5 team should ever lose to an FCS team. Muschamp would know.

Was Dabo's head start really that great? He went from being a WR coach to being a head coach. At least Muschamp had over 10 years DC experience, plus 4 years as a major P5 coach.

You act as if coach's can't come in and take over P5 programs that are in the dumps. Tom Herman has risen Texas up in Year 2 (and before you say Texas is better historically, remember that Charlie Strong failed miserably right before him trying to do the same thing). Dan Mullen had a better season in Year One than Muschamp or McIlwain ever had in their 6 years, and he took over a worse program than they did.

SC just got shutout for the first time in 12 years. It's the 4th worst bowl shutout loss by ANY team in the last 20 years. Weeks after that OB loss, Dabo had Morris and Venables on his staff. Are you saying that Muschamp has already made the necessary staff changes to make South Carolina a national contender like Dabo had? If not, then I'm confused as to the point of this thread.

Is the point to suggest that Muschamp is on a similar trajectory to Dabo? Because if so, then Muschamp is going to need to at least win the SEC East in 2019.

Or is the point to talk dumpers off the ledge and to give Muschamp more time? Which is completely fine. But it really isn't that strong of an argument. Sunshine Pumpers have been using the examples of Frank Beamer (21-40-2 in his first 6 seasons at VT) and Bobby Bowden (42-26 at WVU in 6 years, a 23-13 at FSU in first 3 years) as examples for patience for like 20 years. This isn't really a new argument. Now there's just an added data point of now Dabo who took a few years to create a CFB Powerhouse.

But for every one of these 3 HOF coaches who took a few years to become elite, there are several that started slow, and haven't gotten any better, even with more chances.

Ron Zook- 23-14 at UF, 34-51 at Illinois (eery similarities to Muschamp)
Steve Addazio- 38-38 in 6 seasons at BC
Lane Kiffin- 35-21 in 5 seasons at P5 schools
Greg Schiano- 68-67 in 11 seasons
Bret Bielama- 29-34 in 5 seasons at Arkansas
Larry Fedora- 45-43 in 7 seasons at UNC
\








HERE a clue for you Clemsucks has a message board called tigernet. Take your Orange BS to that
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Old 01-12-2019, 03:24 PM   #79
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Originally Posted by PFW79 View Post
Well, UVA isn't 7-6 because SC lost to them as a TD favorite. They shouldn't be 8-5. In fact, everyone on this board said they would be 7-6 after the Belk Bowl.

Interesting that you counted FCS wins as being equal to FBS. You seem to be pretty sharp with numbers. Interesting choice. No, I don't think there's a difference in win totals with FCS teams. No P5 team should ever lose to an FCS team. Muschamp would know.

Was Dabo's head start really that great? He went from being a WR coach to being a head coach. At least Muschamp had over 10 years DC experience, plus 4 years as a major P5 coach.

You act as if coach's can't come in and take over P5 programs that are in the dumps. Tom Herman has risen Texas up in Year 2 (and before you say Texas is better historically, remember that Charlie Strong failed miserably right before him trying to do the same thing). Dan Mullen had a better season in Year One than Muschamp or McIlwain ever had in their 6 years, and he took over a worse program than they did.

SC just got shutout for the first time in 12 years. It's the 4th worst bowl shutout loss by ANY team in the last 20 years. Weeks after that OB loss, Dabo had Morris and Venables on his staff. Are you saying that Muschamp has already made the necessary staff changes to make South Carolina a national contender like Dabo had? If not, then I'm confused as to the point of this thread.

Is the point to suggest that Muschamp is on a similar trajectory to Dabo? Because if so, then Muschamp is going to need to at least win the SEC East in 2019.

Or is the point to talk dumpers off the ledge and to give Muschamp more time? Which is completely fine. But it really isn't that strong of an argument. Sunshine Pumpers have been using the examples of Frank Beamer (21-40-2 in his first 6 seasons at VT) and Bobby Bowden (42-26 at WVU in 6 years, a 23-13 at FSU in first 3 years) as examples for patience for like 20 years. This isn't really a new argument. Now there's just an added data point of now Dabo who took a few years to create a CFB Powerhouse.

But for every one of these 3 HOF coaches who took a few years to become elite, there are several that started slow, and haven't gotten any better, even with more chances.

Ron Zook- 23-14 at UF, 34-51 at Illinois (eery similarities to Muschamp)
Steve Addazio- 38-38 in 6 seasons at BC
Lane Kiffin- 35-21 in 5 seasons at P5 schools
Greg Schiano- 68-67 in 11 seasons
Bret Bielama- 29-34 in 5 seasons at Arkansas
Larry Fedora- 45-43 in 7 seasons at UNC
Dave Doeren- 43-34 in 6 seasons at NCST
Derek Mason- 24-38 in 5 season at Vandy
Let’s start at the top. Fun fact! 7 is still greater than both 5.5 and 5.7. You’ve managed to make an irrelevant Virginia comment twice in one thread. Winning or losing that bowl game makes absolutely no difference whatsoever in how it factors into the math. Surely you know that and you’re just trolling.

I counted FCS wins in with the rest because it’s a slippery slope to excluding numbers. Clemson’s averages are helped tremendously by subpar FBS programs from tiny conferences such as Ball State (9 wins in 2012). Even if you exclude these, however, my point remains: Clemson wasn’t beating top tier teams. Dabo beat ONE top 15 team in his first five years. Didn’t beat a top 10 until year 6. Even if we take your fairly arbitrary adjustment and move Dabo’s average to 6, Carolina would have had to do something one more time that you yourself state that they average roughly once per year. That’s close, which is the point.

Another major theme of this thread was the program building aspect, in which a coach and program interface with one another to create a finished product. Discounting Dabo’s head start in that regard and throwing in Muschamp’s experience at other schools is both disingenuous and not germane to the topic. Dabo was THERE, that’s the point. And yes, I think that the McClendon hire could be as impactful as Morris’ hire. I mentioned that in the OP.

You’ve provided one example of a coach who went to a legendary program and got them a big bowl win. Dude also lost his opener to a coachless Maryland, and the jury is still out. Also, Mullen had a better season than Muschamp in 2012? 10-3 is better than 11-2 with a co-East crown now? You don’t seem to be so sharp with numbers. And Mullen had a worse situation than Muschamp having to kick off double digit of Urban’s players? Alright.

Someone sounds a little salty about that worst ever bowl loss. Didn’t hold your program back, why should UVA hold us back?

Your list of coaches also completely ignores nearly all parallels I’ve drawn between Dabo and Muschamp, but you do you.
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Old 01-12-2019, 03:29 PM   #80
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Default Re: Muschamp at Carolina and Dabo at Clemson are on the same trajectory through 3.

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Given their recent success, I think they'd still make it in as long as we were their only loss. Also depending on where they are ranked at the time.
Next year, maybe so.

This year, how would you have kept two loss UGA out, when they beat the team that beat Clemson (us), plus had to play Alabama, Auburn, UK and Florida? Clemson did not play anyone this year outside of TAMU and MAYBE Syracuse, both of whom took them to the wire. Remember that the ACC title game had 7-6 Pitt on the other side, with a 1-4 OOC record (win over Albany).

ND, Okie, Bama and UGA would be the line-up this year if we had a W over Clemson.

But let's settle the argument in 2019 with an actual case study.
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