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Old 08-22-2013, 05:33 PM   #1
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Default A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

I had a few extra minutes last night to look at game film. Here's my take on next week's game.

UNC Offense
Formations - Expect to see a LOT of 4 WR/1 RB shotgun; 3WR/2RB shotgun. And their TE will often line up as a slot receiver.

a. Quinshad Davis/Eric Ebron/And Other Receivers.
I realize his recruiting story has several people irked... but, Q Davis is a player. We missed out. He came on strong in November of last year. He had multiple 100 yard games to end his freshman campaign. His strength is catching the fades or long, jump balls. He has some impressive moves in YAC. He's a big boy running down field and runs right through most arm tackles. I'd expect he'll be targeted at least 10 times against us and could easily surpass 100 yards receiving. He'll be pumped up to play in his home state in front of a crowd. Eric Ebron is a TE, but, like Quinshad Davis, he's a big target that does well with deep passes. He's really more of a WR. I'm interested to see how our Defense opts to guard Ebron. Watch out for the fade routes. The Tarheel's other receivers (Singleton and Tapley) are plenty experienced and know the offense. All of these guys are great at leaping over smaller CBs and making the play.

b. Bryn Renner.
A lot of people love this guy, but he's not really a QB that spends a lot of time throwing over the middle in traffic. His strength is standing in the shotgun, reading the defense (man/zone or cover1/2/3), dropping 3 steps and making the soft throw deep to one-on-one coverage (in man) or in between the short and deep zones on the edges. UNC sends its WRs, TEs, and even RBs (play action) on deep fly patterns pretty often. Renner's precision over the top and his receivers ability to make a play on the ball really help their passing attack. He'll also throw a lot of WR screens. I'd expect to see at least 5 designed screens (hb/bubble/jailbreaks) against us... especially to negate the speed of our Dline. Don't expect Renner to be much of a running threat, despite their use of the zone read. He ran for a little over 60 yards last season, because on zone read plays he almost always handed the ball off. In my opinion, Renner might not have as good of year this year, just because he doesn't have a go-to RB to rely on as he did last year. I really hope our Defensive Ends key on the RB and force Renner to make plays with his feet.

c. Run Offense.
They lost their star RB last year to the NFL (Giovanni Bernard). Most of their runs are either sprint draws, delayed draws or option runs out of the zone read. Their RBs are good, but nothing great. They'l employ a Running Back By Committee approach this game with Blue (power) and Morris (speed). They remind me a lot of those Big 12 teams (OK State, Baylor, Texas Tech) that rarely run anything except the shotgun (unless they're on the goalline), and it seems as if 95% of their runs are draws. Plus, they'll use the RBs quite a bit in their passing game. They rarely seem to stay in pass protection. So, watch for the RBs to catch more than they run.

Offense Summary.
Watch for UNC to employ a lot of pre-snap motion with quick screens, 10 yard curls/hooks, interspersed with draws and a deep fades. Like Clemson last year, their goal is to get the ball out of Renner's hands as fast as possible. It seems as if they want to either throw the ball on a screen or throw it long (beyond 15 yards)... Renner doesn't like to thread the needle within 5-10 yards of the line of scrimmage, but he's not afraid to throw into coverage deep because he has so much faith in his big receivers. Renner makes his living throwing deep along the sidelines and occasionally lofting it over a safety or linebacker's out-stretched hands, smack dab in the middle of the field.

The one area I'm most concerned about is how our safeties read and react, especially with UNC's use of the shotgun play action passes. Also, I'm concerned about our secondary depth. I'd bet Ahmad Christian is going to get plenty of time (30+ snaps) as a nickel back or substitute for Legree and Hampton this game. I wouldn't be surprised to see 9 guys used in our CB/Safety rotations in order to help give our guys a breath.

The key is to make UNC one-dimensional. Take away the running game and allow our LBs to drop a few steps and help our secondary focus on the passing attack. We'll likely give up 225+ yards in the air. We need to be more concerned with what UNC can do in the redzone. This is where our secondary really needs to buckle down and prevent the taller UNC receivers/tight ends from catching those fade passes and 10 yard hooks. Keep NC from scoring more than 28 points and we should win this one. I'd also expect we have at least one, and possibly two interceptions. This is the type of QB that an athletic safety loves to face.

I always dread first games. Usually, every one is a little rusty and sloppy. Since NC has lost several key members of its offensive line, I'd expect them to make a few miscues. But, even if NC is down by 21 pts, they're still going to calmly throw it around the field. They sort of remind me of last year's Tennessee team. They will absolutely destroy a soft prevent defense.

Also, North Carolina didn't really perform well on the road last year. They lost to Wake and Duke on the road. I'd expect the crowd at Willy-B to create some problems for them because they make a LOT of pre-snap changes. So... be loud, be proud, and expect UNC to throw the ball around the yard.

My prediction - UNC scores 24 pts.
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Last edited by longcock; 08-23-2013 at 09:49 AM.
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Old 08-22-2013, 05:38 PM   #2
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

^ As long as we score 25, I'm good with that. :)

Good write up.
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Old 08-22-2013, 06:04 PM   #3
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

No way their running game is any good this year against an SEC defense & without the great Gio at RB. He beat Miami by himself last year. Fedora, like so many ACC coaches (Johnson, Sweeny, Fisher) is totally overrated.

To paraphrase a post by Spurticus, if we can't hold them under 24 pts, we suck.
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Old 08-22-2013, 06:27 PM   #4
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

Their great players will be mediocre in face of our defense. They didn't really play anyone last year. Louisville was about it. I say they score 13 points. Bubble screens don't work against us. If they want to do something against us they are going to have to stretch the field, and for that the need time to throw. That is not their offense.
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Old 08-22-2013, 06:58 PM   #5
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

good info on most anything you would want to know about UNC

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foot...roster-preview
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Old 08-22-2013, 07:13 PM   #6
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

Good write up. Carolina fans should be cautious about over-estimating our defense. We have an unproven defensive backfield and linebacker corp. The UNC offense tends to neutralize our defensive strength by using a quick passing game. The analogy to UT is very good because that was their gameplan and they had good success and nearly pulled off the upset.
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Old 08-22-2013, 07:15 PM   #7
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

Those lob throws are going to be rushed and it's going to be noisy in there. Possibly windy too. 1st games of the season the defenses are going to be juiced too. I just see their passing attack as a non factor until the second half once everyone settles down. By then they'll have abandoned the run letting us play zone and rush 4 against 5. We'll give them short runs if we have a 2 score lead.

I think we get 2 big Ints.
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Old 08-22-2013, 07:25 PM   #8
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

I feel certain our coaches will try to dictate to them rather than react. I wouldn't be surprised to see some DE drops into short coverage and pressure by an OLB or Spur. If the DL is getting good pressure, we will likely see the LB's lined up a step deep to get fill angles and disrupt short passing lanes. The hitting needs to be fierce early-on as that seems to disrupt fast-paced teams and introduce a "12th man" into the heads of ball handlers. The guys pushing for playing time likely need to be ready to step in and bring a load.
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Old 08-22-2013, 07:30 PM   #9
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

Great write up.

Going to be a good test to see where the LB and DB's are. I'm really interested in watching our Spur play in the game to see if our pass coverage is improved.

We did miss out on Q. Davis, hate we didn't take a harder look at him, but there may have been other things there that we didn't see.
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Old 08-22-2013, 07:59 PM   #10
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

A good analysis. The news out of Chapel Hill is that we've two very good frosh that are gonna see a lot of time. Switzer and Bug Howard. Keep an eye out for Switzer at the A back.
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Old 08-22-2013, 08:27 PM   #11
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

24? I can see 17.

If we let them score more than that, we will be in big trouble with georgia
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Old 08-22-2013, 08:27 PM   #12
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

Double post
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Old 08-22-2013, 09:12 PM   #13
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

Great comments!

One thing I've seen that seems to impact high tempo teams is to rush 4 and drop 7 into coverage disruputing the 1st and 2nd reads...this may give our DL time to apply pressure like we've done v. the taters the past few years.

Without a doubt, we'll be the fastest defense they've seen in a while.
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Old 08-22-2013, 09:32 PM   #14
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

Obviously past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but it's worth nothing that our defense held the two most uptempo offenses they faced last year to it's fewest and second fewest plays of the year.

Missouri rain 58 plays for 255 yards, Clemson ran 59 for 328. UNC is most comparable to Missouri.

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Old 08-22-2013, 09:38 PM   #15
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

Quote:
Originally Posted by yazoo View Post
Good write up. Carolina fans should be cautious about over-estimating our defense. We have an unproven defensive backfield and linebacker corp. The UNC offense tends to neutralize our defensive strength by using a quick passing game. The analogy to UT is very good because that was their gameplan and they had good success and nearly pulled off the upset.
On paper alone, maybe, but I don't think the UT game is a good barometer. It was later in the season and more importantly, the emotion of losing Latti really affected everyone- from the team to the fans. The atmosphere next thurs will be completely different and should be enough to disrupt their high speed offense.
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Old 08-22-2013, 09:52 PM   #16
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

I love when people do things like this.
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Old 08-23-2013, 01:50 AM   #17
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

There are several things that you didn't write about. One being how Renner has very happy feet and is very clumsy when pressured. I have watch all the videos from last year of him. He has a nice arm but played shit teams. Duke was beating the crap out of them last year and they just let him continue to throw the ball around. Pressure will be the name of the game here. I also see our D-line getting very mad at the line for the head slapping that there Left guard and left tackle like to do. If Renner is pressured often and gets thrown around a good bit he will be rattled to the core. Trust me on this. If you go back and watch the video's, watch how clumsy and uncoordinated he is.
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Old 08-23-2013, 02:37 AM   #18
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

Trust the Visor and Coach Ward but fear Clowney!
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Old 08-23-2013, 03:37 AM   #19
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

49-17 USC
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Old 08-23-2013, 08:33 AM   #20
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Default Re: A UNC Analysis - Their Offense

Two comments.

1. We did not miss on Davis. he had an offer, and waited to see if he could have gotten a bigger offer. While he was doing this we took 3 other guys. Davis knew if we wanted to be a Gamecock, he needed to do so before Smith/Fuller

2. I really enjoy how people say our DBs are unproven. 4 guys started in games last year (Gurley, Williams, Hampton and Legree), so I am not sure how anyone can say we are unproven
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