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Old 11-13-2013, 08:58 AM   #1
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Default 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

The award is presented annually to the nation's top running back.

Nominations for the award will be accepted through October with the finalists announced on Nov. 25. The winner will be announced on Dec. 12.

Mike Davis is in the running for the award. He'll have to put up good numbers from here on out to win. If we go to ATL and he has a good game, that should greatly increase his chances.

His receiving yards could be what sets him apart from the rest of the guys. Also playing well in games with a lot of significance goes a long way in winning this award.

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Old 11-13-2013, 12:00 PM   #2
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

Mike Davis is a beast..... simple as that. He doesn't need to win any awards to get anymore respect from me! Just saying


It would be nice if he won something though. He really really deserves more recognition than he gets.
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Old 11-13-2013, 12:07 PM   #3
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

I think he's got a reasonable chance of winning this award.

Would love to see him get it.

2013 Doak Walker Award

2014 Heisman Award Winner
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Old 11-13-2013, 12:14 PM   #4
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

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Originally Posted by Travelin View Post
I think he's got a reasonable chance of winning this award.

Would love to see him get it.

2013 Doak Walker Award

2014 Heisman Award Winner

Saw a top 5 list for this year's Heisman last night. Mike Davis is sitting at #5 which is awesome considering he wasn't even on anyone's radar at the beginning of the season. Performance matters and it's paying off for him. By the way, Tajh Boyd's not even a remote mention anymore- again, results matter!
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Old 11-13-2013, 12:19 PM   #5
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

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Originally Posted by 1982Gamecock View Post
Saw a top 5 list for this year's Heisman last night. Mike Davis is sitting at #5 which is awesome considering he wasn't even on anyone's radar at the beginning of the season. Performance matters and it's paying off for him. By the way, Tajh Boyd's not even a remote mention anymore- again, results matter!
I just don't see a RB winning it this year, but being that far up the list right now is great.
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:01 PM   #6
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

he's 11th in rushing which will hurt him, but only 5 of those backs are in bcs conferences and he compares favorably to those backs.

this is mike's case, no game under 115 yards from scrimmage. the consistency in the sec mentioned in the thread i made a couple days ago, longest scrimmage streak of 130+ yards in the sec since 2000. only one game of less than 6 yards per play, every other candidate has at least two. only melvin gordon from wisconsin is averaging more yards per play. in yards per carry only gordon and abdullah from nebraska are averaging more per carry.

he's deserving and at this point i dont see how anyone could have him any lower than 2nd team all american.
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:48 PM   #7
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

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he's 11th in rushing which will hurt him, but only 5 of those backs are in bcs conferences and he compares favorably to those backs.

this is mike's case, no game under 115 yards from scrimmage. the consistency in the sec mentioned in the thread i made a couple days ago, longest scrimmage streak of 130+ yards in the sec since 2000. only one game of less than 6 yards per play, every other candidate has at least two. only melvin gordon from wisconsin is averaging more yards per play. in yards per carry only gordon and abdullah from nebraska are averaging more per carry.

he's deserving and at this point i dont see how anyone could have him any lower than 2nd team all american.
Those are good stats in his favor. I think if he has great games in the last three, he could win it.
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:58 PM   #8
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

it would be nice to see that. who leads the ncaa in rushing though?
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Old 11-13-2013, 03:46 PM   #9
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/...01/sort01.html
http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/...28/sort01.html

those are the pertinent stat categories for backs. andre williams from bc leads in rushing, kadeem carey from arizona is 2nd but has been the most consistent as a rusher. mike isnt likely to close the gap on either that much in rushing yards per game, but his ypc and yards from scrimmage gives him a chance.
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Old 11-13-2013, 03:48 PM   #10
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

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it would be nice to see that. who leads the ncaa in rushing though?
Andre Williams of BC, but no receiving yards and no big wins.
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Old 11-13-2013, 04:04 PM   #11
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

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Originally Posted by crowcutta View Post
http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/...01/sort01.html
http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/...28/sort01.html

those are the pertinent stat categories for backs. andre williams from bc leads in rushing, kadeem carey from arizona is 2nd but has been the most consistent as a rusher. mike isnt likely to close the gap on either that much in rushing yards per game, but his ypc and yards from scrimmage gives him a chance.
His YPC is high and he only averages about 18 attempts a game while already going over 1,000 yards. That is impressive. Most of the other guys are at 25+ carries per game.
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Old 11-13-2013, 04:47 PM   #12
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

Going to be tough, but I think he can make a case. Here's my breakdown of why.

First, let's look at the top overall rushers so far this season, organized by YPG (I chose to go down to #22 so we could include all the 1,000 yard runners so far this year).


Then here are those 1,000 yard runners at a glance:


Jordan Lynch is a QB, so just take him out. So that leaves us with 15 RBs between 1038 and 1471 yards so far this season. Ameer Abdullah and Travis Greene only have 7 TDs apiece, so I think it's fair to take them out. That gets us down to 13 RBs.

Despite some gaudy numbers, Antonio Andrews (W. Kentucky), Brandon Oliver (Buffalo), Kapri Bibbs (CSU), Kasey Carrier (New Mexico), Jay Ajayi (Boise State) and David Fluellen (Toledo) play for low level teams against laughable competition for the most part. So I'm taking them out of consideration too.

That leaves 7 RB's in the mix:
Mike Davis, Andre Williams (BC), Bishop Sankey (Washington), Ka'Deem Carey (Arizona), Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin), Tyler Gaffney (Stanford) and Tre Mason (Auburn).

I think all of these guys have a fair argument. Historically, though, the Doak Walker has gone to nationally known names on teams that are winning big that season. For that reason, I think you can take Bishop Sankey and Andre Williams out of the discussion - mind you I do not think this is fair because those 2 are actually in the top 3 running backs in the nation in both total yards rushing and YPG.

So now we're down to 5 - Mike Davis, Ka'Deem Carey, Melvin Gordon, Tyler Gaffney and Tre Mason.

Looking over past winners, it also seems that the minimum threshold for winning this award is at a minimum 1500+ yards rushing and around 15+ TDs. More commonly the winners have 1800+ yards rushing and/or 20+ TDs.

Of the 5 guys I've narrowed it down to, here are where they currently project (based on games remaining and their averages so far on the season - *includes projected conference championship game appearance):

Mike Davis - 1410 yards, 13 TD
Ka'Deem Carey - 1679 yards, 15 TD
Melvin Gordon - 1547 yards, 15 TD
Tyler Gaffney - 1518 yards, 19 TD *
Tre Mason - 1246 yards, 18 TD

OK, so Davis doesn't stack up too favorably on the rushing alone. How does receiving come into play? Adding in receiving yards to give us total yards and total TD, here are how those 4 guys numbers change (adding in the projected end of the season to their receiving numbers as well):

Mike Davis - 1519 yards, 13 TD
Ka'Deem Carey - 1797 yards, 15 TD
Melvin Gordon - 1547 yards, 15 TD (only has 1 catch for 5 yards all year)
Tyler Gaffney - 1554 yards, 19 TD
Tre Mason - 1267 yards, 18 TD

Putting all of this together, my money would be on Ka'Deem Carey. If we manage to get to the SECCG, Mike's numbers would change a bit and be more competitive. Then he'd project to have 1673 yards, 14 or 15 TD (14.4 is how my calculation worked out). With those numbers and given an SECCG appearance and a much better ranking than Arizona, I could see Mike having a chance.

We'll see how it works out, but I would not be surprised if Mike Davis is a finalist for the award at least. Would be cool to get to send him to NY for the awards show, especially if Connor ends up being a finalist for anything too.

Last edited by GarnetInChicago; 11-13-2013 at 05:09 PM.
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Old 11-13-2013, 05:04 PM   #13
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GarnetInChicago View Post
Going to be tough, but I think he can make a case. Here's my breakdown of why.

First, let's look at the top overall rushers so far this season, organized by YPG (I chose to go down to #22 so we could include all the 1,000 yard runners so far this year).


Then here are those 1,000 yard runners at a glance:


Jordan Lynch is a QB, so just take him out. So that leaves us with 15 RBs between 1038 and 1471 yards so far this season. Ameer Abdullah and Travis Greene only have 7 TDs apiece, so I think it's fair to take them out. That gets us down to 13 RBs.

Despite some gaudy numbers, Antonio Andrews (W. Kentucky), Brandon Oliver (Buffalo), Kapri Bibbs (CSU), Kasey Carrier (New Mexico), Jay Ajayi (Boise State) and David Fluellen (Toledo) play for low level teams against laughable competition for the most part. So I'm taking them out of consideration too.

That leaves 7 RB's in the mix:
Mike Davis, Andre Williams (BC), Bishop Sankey (Washington), Ka'Deem Carey (Arizona), Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin), Tyler Gaffney (Stanford) and Tre Mason (Auburn).

I think all of these guys have a fair argument. Historically, though, the Doak Walker has gone to nationally known names on teams that are winning big that season. For that reason, I think you can take Bishop Sankey and Andre Williams out of the discussion - mind you I do not think this is fair because those 2 are actually in the top 3 running backs in the nation in both total yards rushing and YPG.

So now we're down to 5 - Mike Davis, Ka'Deem Carey, Melvin Gordon, Tyler Gaffney and Tre Mason.

Looking over past winners, it also seems that the minimum threshold for winning this award is at a minimum 1500+ yards rushing and around 15+ TDs. More commonly the winners have 1800+ yards rushing and/or 20+ TDs.

Of the 5 guys I've narrowed it down to, here are where they currently project (based on games remaining and their averages so far on the season - *includes projected conference championship game appearance):

Mike Davis - 1410 yards, 13 TD
Ka'Deem Carey - 1679 yards, 15 TD
Melvin Gordon - 1547 yards, 15 TD
Tyler Gaffney - 1518 yards, 19 TD *
Tre Mason - 1246 yards, 18 TD

OK, so Davis doesn't stack up too favorably on the rushing alone. How does receiving come into play? Adding in receiving yards to give us total yards and total TD, here are how those 4 guys numbers change (adding in the projected end of the season to their receiving numbers as well):

Mike Davis - 1519 yards, 13 TD
Ka'Deem Carey - 1797 yards, 15 TD
Melvin Gordon - 1547 yards, 15 TD (only has 1 catch for 5 yards all year)
Tyler Gaffney - 1554 yards, 19 TD
Tre Mason - 1267 yards, 18 TD

Putting all of this together, my omney would be on Ka'Deem Carey. If we manage to get to the SECCG, Mike's numbers would change a bit and be more competitive. Then he'd project to have 1673 yards, 14 or 15 TD (14.4 is how my calculation worked out). With those numbers and given an SECCG appearance and a much better ranking than Arizona, I could see Mike having a chance.

We'll see how it works out, but I would not be surprised if Mike Davis is a finalist for the award at least. Would be cool to get to send him to NY for the awards show, especially if Connor ends up being a finalist for anything too.
Wow you really put A LOT of thought into that. But I like the projections
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Old 11-13-2013, 05:08 PM   #14
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

He better win that shit.
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Old 11-13-2013, 06:18 PM   #15
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

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He better win that shit.
Such insight...
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Old 11-13-2013, 06:29 PM   #16
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

4th-5th probably. Should have a better chance next year.
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Old 11-13-2013, 06:39 PM   #17
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

GIC- nice insight/stats.
But how is Kadeem Carey "winning more" than Bishop Sankey?
Both teams are 6-3.
Both will probably finish with similar records if not close.
Or is it just because he was a first team all American last year?
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Old 11-13-2013, 07:37 PM   #18
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GarnetInChicago View Post
Going to be tough, but I think he can make a case. Here's my breakdown of why.

First, let's look at the top overall rushers so far this season, organized by YPG (I chose to go down to #22 so we could include all the 1,000 yard runners so far this year).


Then here are those 1,000 yard runners at a glance:


Jordan Lynch is a QB, so just take him out. So that leaves us with 15 RBs between 1038 and 1471 yards so far this season. Ameer Abdullah and Travis Greene only have 7 TDs apiece, so I think it's fair to take them out. That gets us down to 13 RBs.

Despite some gaudy numbers, Antonio Andrews (W. Kentucky), Brandon Oliver (Buffalo), Kapri Bibbs (CSU), Kasey Carrier (New Mexico), Jay Ajayi (Boise State) and David Fluellen (Toledo) play for low level teams against laughable competition for the most part. So I'm taking them out of consideration too.

That leaves 7 RB's in the mix:
Mike Davis, Andre Williams (BC), Bishop Sankey (Washington), Ka'Deem Carey (Arizona), Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin), Tyler Gaffney (Stanford) and Tre Mason (Auburn).

I think all of these guys have a fair argument. Historically, though, the Doak Walker has gone to nationally known names on teams that are winning big that season. For that reason, I think you can take Bishop Sankey and Andre Williams out of the discussion - mind you I do not think this is fair because those 2 are actually in the top 3 running backs in the nation in both total yards rushing and YPG.

So now we're down to 5 - Mike Davis, Ka'Deem Carey, Melvin Gordon, Tyler Gaffney and Tre Mason.

Looking over past winners, it also seems that the minimum threshold for winning this award is at a minimum 1500+ yards rushing and around 15+ TDs. More commonly the winners have 1800+ yards rushing and/or 20+ TDs.

Of the 5 guys I've narrowed it down to, here are where they currently project (based on games remaining and their averages so far on the season - *includes projected conference championship game appearance):

Mike Davis - 1410 yards, 13 TD
Ka'Deem Carey - 1679 yards, 15 TD
Melvin Gordon - 1547 yards, 15 TD
Tyler Gaffney - 1518 yards, 19 TD *
Tre Mason - 1246 yards, 18 TD

OK, so Davis doesn't stack up too favorably on the rushing alone. How does receiving come into play? Adding in receiving yards to give us total yards and total TD, here are how those 4 guys numbers change (adding in the projected end of the season to their receiving numbers as well):

Mike Davis - 1519 yards, 13 TD
Ka'Deem Carey - 1797 yards, 15 TD
Melvin Gordon - 1547 yards, 15 TD (only has 1 catch for 5 yards all year)
Tyler Gaffney - 1554 yards, 19 TD
Tre Mason - 1267 yards, 18 TD

Putting all of this together, my money would be on Ka'Deem Carey. If we manage to get to the SECCG, Mike's numbers would change a bit and be more competitive. Then he'd project to have 1673 yards, 14 or 15 TD (14.4 is how my calculation worked out). With those numbers and given an SECCG appearance and a much better ranking than Arizona, I could see Mike having a chance.

We'll see how it works out, but I would not be surprised if Mike Davis is a finalist for the award at least. Would be cool to get to send him to NY for the awards show, especially if Connor ends up being a finalist for anything too.
That's a great breakdown, I appreciate what you did.

Maybe the fact that we are a top 10 team and we've played on TV so much more than the other candidates, the votes could go in Mike's favor. Just a thought.
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Old 11-13-2013, 09:56 PM   #19
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

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Originally Posted by B-G View Post
GIC- nice insight/stats.
But how is Kadeem Carey "winning more" than Bishop Sankey?
Both teams are 6-3.
Both will probably finish with similar records if not close.
Or is it just because he was a first team all American last year?
It's what Carey did last year. His name probably has more national recognition than anybody else on that list. Sankey could very easily end up getting more recognition if his team pulls off any upsets in the next few weeks. There's nothing really scientific about my prognostication here. There are plenty of straws to be picked at. But I had to find some way to whittle it down to manageable numbers of finalists and that's how I got there.
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Old 11-14-2013, 12:07 AM   #20
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Default Re: 2013 Doak Walker Award (MD28?)

The only 2 on the list that compare with MD are Gaffney and Mason, maybe Sankey or Carey because of the competition. I don't know if they count receiving yards.....but in today's game, I think they should.
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