NFL Playoffs: Elo Ratings and Playoff Odds

[b381l]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/w...round-edition/

Really interesting.

[B-G]

Love that site.

Nate Silver is great

[b381l]

Originally Posted by B-G

Love that site.

Nate Silver is great

their whole staff is good......they cover a bunch of topics too

[b381l]

"The Seattle Seahawks remain the best bet to win this year’s Super Bowl, according to Elo. In fact, their chance of doing so improved slightly, to 37 percent from 35 percent last week despite their being idle. That’s because Seattle will face the Carolina Panthers, the weakest team to make the playoffs. By contrast, the odds for the Patriots, the No. 1 team in the AFC, have fallen slightly because they’ll have to face Baltimore after the Ravens gained more Elo points than any other team in beating the Pittsburgh Steelers last week."

Well, looks like they were on the money on both games today.

[JerseyBird]

Although had Baltimore held on that would have turned their ratings (and pretty much anyone projecting the rest of the playoffs) upside down

[b381l]

that's the great thing about the NFL, especially the playoffs, any team can win on any given day.......that's what makes all this so interesting is how 538 quantitfies all this with odds of winning.